PREDICTING THE DATE OF FIRST CATCH OF THE CORN EARWORM, HELICOVERPA ZEA, IN CENTRAL U.S.

This paper develops predictive (or correlative) models for the date of first catch of the com earworm, Helicoverpa zea, as a basis for identifying biotic and abiotic factors that influence dispersal and migration. Data described in Goodenough et al. (1988, J. Econ. Entomol.) on the catch of H. zea gathered at over 150 sites predominantly in the central U.S. from 1983 to 1986 are analyzed. The dependent variables, Y1 and Y2, are date of first meaningful catch and date when cumulative catch exceeds 5, respectively; the independent variables are latitude, longitude and elevation of the site. Outstanding among the findings are the following : 1) There is no statistical evidence based on all the data that the slopes of the simple linear regression models of Y2 on latitude differ among the four years. The common slope estimate is 8.11 days/degree, the intercepts differ by as many as 16 days, and the combined model has r2 = 0.69. 2) There is no statistical evidence based on the data in the central U.S. that the partial slopes of the multiple regression models of Y2 on latitude and longitude differ among the four years. The common partial slope estimates are 7.36 and -1.27 days/degree, the intercepts differ by as many as 17 days, and the combined model has R 2= 0.69. Second order terms are not significant . 3) An exploratory analysis using GIS mapping software suggests that elevation is also a significant predictor variable. The suggestion is confirmed in multiple regression models for both Y1 and Y22= 0.71 and 0.72 respectively. The intercepts differ by as many as 20 and 17 days, respectively, over the four years . These results imply that the time of fi!\u27st appearance at any location in the central U.S. could be predicted once the date of first appearance in South Texas is ascertained. They also demonstrate the utility of analyzing residuals using GIS mapping software. Research is in progress to investigate other possible predictor variables including soil moisture, soil temperature and precipitation

Dielectron Cross Section Measurements in Nucleus-Nucleus Reactions at 1.0 A GeV

We present measured dielectron production cross sections for Ca+Ca, C+C, He+Ca, and d+Ca reactions at 1.0 A GeV. Statistical uncertainties and systematic effects are smaller than in previous DLS nucleus-nucleus data. For pair mass < 0.35 GeV/c2 : 1) the Ca+Ca cross section is larger than the previous DLS measurement and current model results, 2) the mass spectra suggest large contributions from pi0 and eta Dalitz decays, and 3) dsigma/dM is proportional to ApAt. For M > 0.5 GeV/c2 the Ca+Ca to C+C cross section ratio is significantly larger than the ratio of ApAt values.Comment: Submitted to Physical Review Letters. Further analysis information will be posted on our web pages -- http://macdls.lbl.gov Figure 1 has been redrawn to make more legible. Text modified to support redrawn figur

Radial Flow in Au+Au Collisions at E=0.25-1.15 A GeV

A systematic study of energy spectra for light particles emitted at midrapidity from Au+Au collisions at E=0.25-1.15 A GeV reveals a significant non-thermal component consistent with a collective radial flow. This component is evaluated as a function of bombarding energy and event centrality. Comparisons to Quantum Molecular Dynamics (QMD) and Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (BUU) models are made for different equations of state.Comment: 10 pages of text and 4 figures (all ps files in a uuencoded package)

Inclusive Dielectron Cross Sections in p+p and p+d Interactions at Beam Energies from 1.04 to 4.88 GeV

Measurements of dielectron production in p+p and p+d collisions with beam kinetic energies from 1.04 to 4.88 GeV are presented. The differential cross section is presented as a function of invariant pair mass, transverse momentum, and rapidity. The shapes of the mass spectra and their evolution with beam energy provide information about the relative importance of the various dielectron production mechanisms in this energy regime. The p+d to p+p ratio of the dielectron yield is also presented as a function of invariant pair mass, transverse momentum, and rapidity. The shapes of the transverse momentum and rapidity spectra from the p+d and p+p systems are found to be similar to one another for each of the beam energies studied. The beam energy dependence of the integrated cross sections is also presented.Comment: 15 pages and 16 figure

Local correlations in a strongly interacting 1D Bose gas

We develop an analytical method for calculating local correlations in strongly interacting 1D Bose gases, based on the exactly solvable Lieb-Liniger model. The results are obtained at zero and finite temperatures. They describe the interaction-induced reduction of local many-body correlation functions and can be used for achieving and identifying the strong-coupling Tonks-Girardeau regime in experiments with cold Bose gases in the 1D regime.Comment: 8 pages, REVTeX4, published in the New Journal of Physic

Moment Closure - A Brief Review

Moment closure methods appear in myriad scientific disciplines in the modelling of complex systems. The goal is to achieve a closed form of a large, usually even infinite, set of coupled differential (or difference) equations. Each equation describes the evolution of one "moment", a suitable coarse-grained quantity computable from the full state space. If the system is too large for analytical and/or numerical methods, then one aims to reduce it by finding a moment closure relation expressing "higher-order moments" in terms of "lower-order moments". In this brief review, we focus on highlighting how moment closure methods occur in different contexts. We also conjecture via a geometric explanation why it has been difficult to rigorously justify many moment closure approximations although they work very well in practice.Comment: short survey paper (max 20 pages) for a broad audience in mathematics, physics, chemistry and quantitative biolog

Statistical signatures of critical behavior in small systems

The cluster distributions of different systems are examined to search for signatures of a continuous phase transition. In a system known to possess such a phase transition, both sensitive and insensitive signatures are present; while in systems known not to possess such a phase transition, only insensitive signatures are present. It is shown that nuclear multifragmentation results in cluster distributions belonging to the former category, suggesting that the fragments are the result of a continuous phase transition.Comment: 31 pages, two columns with 30 figure