Testing choquet expected utility

Many theories have been developed to model decision behavior under ambiguity. In this paper we empirically investigate theories which are based on non-additive probabilities, i.e. Choquet expected utility (CEU) theories. We first replicated Ellsberg-paradox behavior. Then we elicited the individual non-additive probabilities, the so called capacities. Those capacities did not have all properties theoretically required. Finally we found that CEU is not really superior to EU in predicting the participants' decisions.Betrachtet werden Entscheidungen unter Ambiguität, d.h. Entscheidungen unter Unsicherheit über Wahrscheinlichkeiten. Wir untersuchen empirisch die Theorien, die Entscheidungsverhalten bei Ambiguität durch nicht-additive Wahrscheinlichkeiten abbilden (Choquet-Erwartungsnutzentheorie). Zunächst replizieren wir sogenanntes Ellsberg-paradoxes Verhalten. Die sich aus der Theorie für die Ermittlung der nicht-additiven Wahrscheinlichkeiten, der Kapazitäten, ergebenden Implikationen werden nur teilweise bestätigt. Abschließend wird gezeigt, daß die Choquet-Erwartungsnutzentheorie das Entscheidungsverhalten der Experimentteilnehmer nicht besser als die Erwartungsnutzentheorie vorhersagt

Die Geldsteuer: Vorschlag für eine radikal einfache Steuer

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Von der Idee zur Umsetzung: BodenBildungsKonzept Sandkaute Gundernhausen: Konzeption eines bodenkundlichen, außerschulischen Lernorts mit Studierenden im Messeler Hügelland (Hessen)

Im Messeler Hügelland östlich von Darmstadt (Hessen) wird in der Sandkaute Gundernhausen an einem außerschulischen Lernort gearbeitet. Seit mehreren Jahren findet im Rahmen des Masterstudienganges Physische Geographie an der Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main eine landschaftsökologische Lehrveranstaltung statt. Ein zentraler Inhalt ist dabei die Sandkaute Gundernhausen. Studierende sollen hier Konzepte für einen außerschulischen Lernort entwickeln, in dem bodengeographische und bodenkundliche Inhalte, didaktisch reduziert, für unterschiedliche Klas-senstufen erarbeitet werden. Diese Konzepte sollen nun passgenau an den Lernplan für die Klassen 5 und 11 (gymnasialer Bildungsgang) angepasst werden. Eine nahegelegene Schule und das Institut für Physische Geographie kooperieren in der Konzeptentwicklung mit dem Landkreis Darmstadt/Dieburg, Hessen Forst sowie der Gemeinde Roßdorf

Resolving the Ellsberg Paradox by Assuming that People Evaluate Repetitive Sampling

Ellsberg (1961) designed a decision experiment where most people violated the axioms of rational choice. He asked people to bet on the outcome of certain random events with known and with unknown probabilities. They usually preferred to bet on events with known probabilities. It is shown that this behavior is reasonable and in accordance with the axioms of rational decision making if it is assumed that people consider bets on events that are repeatedly sampled instead of just sampled once

Glucose-6-Phosphate Dehydrogenase Deficiency is Associated with Cardiovascular Disease in US Military Centers

Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) protects erythrocytes from oxidative stress and hemolysis; G6PD deficiency is the most prevalent enzymopathy. The United States military routinely performs tests to prevent exposing G6PD-deficient personnel to antimalarial drugs that might cause life-threatening hemolytic reactions. In addition, G6PD is a key determinant of vascular function, and its deficiency can lead to impaired nitric oxide production and greater vascular oxidant stress—precursors to atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease. Using military medical records, we performed a retrospective, cross-sectional study to investigate whether deficient G6PD levels are associated with a higher prevalence of cardiovascular disease than are normal levels, and, if so, whether the relationship is independent of accepted cardiovascular risk factors. We analyzed the medical records of 737 individuals who had deficient G6PD levels and 16,601 who had normal levels. Everyone had been screened at U.S. military medical centers from August 2004 through December 2007. We evaluated our dependent variable (composite cardiovascular disease) at the individual level, and performed binary logistic regression of our independent variable (G6PD status) and control variables (modifiable cardiovascular risk factors). The adjusted odds ratio of 1.396 (95% CI, 1.044–1.867; P \u3c0.05) indicated that G6PD-deficient individuals have 39.6% greater odds of developing cardiovascular disease than do those with normal levels. Early intervention may reduce the incidence of cardiovascular disease in military personnel and civilians who have deficient G6DP levels

International lower limb collaborative (INTELLECT) study: a multicentre, international retrospective audit of lower extremity open fractures

Trauma remains a major cause of mortality and disability across the world1, with a higher burden in developing nations2. Open lower extremity injuries are devastating events from a physical3, mental health4, and socioeconomic5 standpoint. The potential sequelae, including risk of chronic infection and amputation, can lead to delayed recovery and major disability6. This international study aimed to describe global disparities, timely intervention, guideline-directed care, and economic aspects of open lower limb injuries