Infection and Transmission of Rift Valley Fever Viruses Lacking the NSs and/or NSm Genes in Mosquitoes: Potential Role for NSm in Mosquito Infection

Rift Valley fever virus is transmitted mainly by mosquitoes and causes disease in humans and animals throughout Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. The impact of disease is large in terms of human illness and mortality, and economic impact on the livestock industry. For these reasons, and because there is a risk of this virus spreading to Europe and North America, it is important to develop a vaccine that is stable, safe and effective in preventing infection. Potential vaccine viruses have been developed through deletion of two genes (NSs and NSm) affecting virus virulence. Because this virus is normally transmitted by mosquitoes we must determine the effects of the deletions in these vaccine viruses on their ability to infect and be transmitted by mosquitoes. An optimal vaccine virus would not infect or be transmitted. The viruses were tested in two mosquito species: Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus. Deletion of the NSm gene reduced infection of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes indicating a role for the NSm protein in mosquito infection. The virus with deletion of both NSs and NSm genes was the best vaccine candidate since it did not infect Ae. aegypti and showed reduced infection and transmission rates in Cx. quinquefasciatus

A hierarchical network approach for modeling Rift Valley fever epidemics with applications in North America

Rift Valley fever is a vector-borne zoonotic disease which causes high morbidity and mortality in livestock. In the event Rift Valley fever virus is introduced to the United States or other non-endemic areas, understanding the potential patterns of spread and the areas at risk based on disease vectors and hosts will be vital for developing mitigation strategies. Presented here is a general network-based mathematical model of Rift Valley fever. Given a lack of empirical data on disease vector species and their vector competence, this discrete time epidemic model uses stochastic parameters following several PERT distributions to model the dynamic interactions between hosts and likely North American mosquito vectors in dispersed geographic areas. Spatial effects and climate factors are also addressed in the model. The model is applied to a large directed asymmetric network of 3,621 nodes based on actual farms to examine a hypothetical introduction to some counties of Texas, an important ranching area in the United States of America (U.S.A.). The nodes of the networks represent livestock farms, livestock markets, and feedlots, and the links represent cattle movements and mosquito diffusion between different nodes. Cattle and mosquito (Aedes and Culex) populations are treated with different contact networks to assess virus propagation. Rift Valley fever virus spread is assessed under various initial infection conditions (infected mosquito eggs, adults or cattle). A surprising trend is fewer initial infectious organisms result in a longer delay before a larger and more prolonged outbreak. The delay is likely caused by a lack of herd immunity while the infections expands geographically before becoming an epidemic involving many dispersed farms and animals almost simultaneously

Risk factors associated with Rift Valley fever epidemics in South Africa in 2008–11

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic and vector-borne disease, mainly present in Africa, which represents a threat to human health, animal health and production. South Africa has experienced three major RVF epidemics (1950–51, 1973–75 and 2008–11). Due to data scarcity, no previous study has quantified risk factors associated with RVF epidemics in animals in South Africa. Using the 2008–11 epidemic datasets, a retrospective longitudinal study was conducted to identify and quantify spatial and temporal environmental factors associated with RVF incidence. Cox regressions with a Besag model to account for the spatial effects were fitted to the data. Coefficients were estimated by Bayesian inference using integrated nested Laplace approximation. An increase in vegetation density was the most important risk factor until 2010. In 2010, increased temperature was the major risk factor. In 2011, after the large 2010 epidemic wave, these associations were reversed, potentially confounded by immunity in animals, probably resulting from earlier infection and vaccination. Both vegetation density and temperature should be considered together in the development of risk management strategies. However, the crucial need for improved access to data on population at risk, animal movements and vaccine use is highlighted to improve model predictions

High Seroprevalence of Rift Valley Fever and Evidence for Endemic Circulation in Mbeya Region, Tanzania, in a Cross-Sectional Study

We describe a high seropositivity rate for Rift Valley fever virus, in up to 29.3% of tested individuals from the shore of Lake Malawi in southwestern Tanzania, and much lower rates from areas distant to the lake. Rift Valley fever disease or outbreaks have not been observed there in the past, which suggests that the virus is circulating under locally favorable conditions and is either a non-pathogenic strain, or that occasional occurrence of disease is missed. We were able to identify a low socio-economic status and cattle ownership as possible socio-economic risk factors for an individual to be seropositive. Environmental risk factors associated with seropositivity include dense vegetation, and ambient land surface temperatures which may be important for breeding success of the mosquitoes which transmit Rift Valley fever, and for efficient multiplication of the virus in the mosquito. Low elevation of the home, and proximity to Lake Malawi probably lead to abundant surface water collections, which serve as breeding places for mosquitoes. These findings will inform patient care in the areas close to Lake Malawi, and may help to design models which predict low-level virus circulation

Venezuelan Equine Encephalitis Virus in Iquitos, Peru: Urban Transmission of a Sylvatic Strain

Enzootic strains of Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEEV) have been isolated from febrile patients in the Peruvian Amazon Basin at low but consistent levels since the early 1990s. Through a clinic-based febrile surveillance program, we detected an outbreak of VEEV infections in Iquitos, Peru, in the first half of 2006. The majority of these patients resided within urban areas of Iquitos, with no report of recent travel outside the city. To characterize the risk factors for VEEV infection within the city, an antibody prevalence study was carried out in a geographically stratified sample of urban areas of Iquitos. Additionally, entomological surveys were conducted to determine if previously incriminated vectors of enzootic VEEV were present within the city. We found that greater than 23% of Iquitos residents carried neutralizing antibodies against VEEV, with significant associations between increased antibody prevalence and age, occupation, mosquito net use, and overnight travel. Furthermore, potential vector mosquitoes were widely distributed across the city. Our results suggest that while VEEV infection is more common in rural areas, transmission also occurs within urban areas of Iquitos, and that further studies are warranted to identify the precise vectors and reservoirs involved in urban VEEV transmission

Estimating the Magnitude and Direction of Altered Arbovirus Transmission Due to Viral Phenotype

Vectorial capacity is a measure of the transmission potential of a vector borne pathogen within a susceptible population. Vector competence, a component of the vectorial capacity equation, is the ability of an arthropod to transmit an infectious agent following exposure to that agent. Comparisons of arbovirus strain-specific vector competence estimates have been used to support observed or hypothesized differences in transmission capability. Typically, such comparisons are made at a single time point during the extrinsic incubation period, the time in days it takes for the virus to replicate and disseminate to the salivary glands. However, vectorial capacity includes crucial parameters needed to effectively evaluate transmission capability, though often this is based on the discrete vector competence values. Utilization of the rate of change of vector competence over a range of days gives a more accurate measurement of the transmission potential. Accordingly, we investigated the rate of change in vector competence of dengue virus in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and the resulting vectorial capacity curves. The areas under the curves represent the effective vector competence and the cumulative transmission potentials of arboviruses within a population of mosquitoes. We used the calculated area under the curve for each virus strain and the corresponding variance estimates to test for differences in cumulative transmission potentials between strains of dengue virus based on our dynamic model. To further characterize differences between dengue strains, we devised a displacement index interpreted as the capability of a newly introduced strain to displace the established, dominant circulating strain. The displacement index can be used to better understand the transmission dynamics in systems where multiple strains/serotypes circulate or even multiple arbovirus species. The use of a rate of a rate of change based model of vectorial capacity and the informative calculations of the displacement index will lead to better measurements of the differences in transmission potential of arboviruses

Predicting Distribution of Aedes Aegypti and Culex Pipiens Complex, Potential Vectors of Rift Valley Fever Virus in Relation to Disease Epidemics in East Africa.

The East African region has experienced several Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks since the 1930s. The objective of this study was to identify distributions of potential disease vectors in relation to disease epidemics. Understanding disease vector potential distributions is a major concern for disease transmission dynamics. DIVERSE ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELLING TECHNIQUES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED FOR THIS PURPOSE: we present a maximum entropy (Maxent) approach for estimating distributions of potential RVF vectors in un-sampled areas in East Africa. We modelled the distribution of two species of mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex) responsible for potential maintenance and amplification of the virus, respectively. Predicted distributions of environmentally suitable areas in East Africa were based on the presence-only occurrence data derived from our entomological study in Ngorongoro District in northern Tanzania. Our model predicted potential suitable areas with high success rates of 90.9% for A. aegypti and 91.6% for C. pipiens complex. Model performance was statistically significantly better than random for both species. Most suitable sites for the two vectors were predicted in central and northwestern Tanzania with previous disease epidemics. Other important risk areas include western Lake Victoria, northern parts of Lake Malawi, and the Rift Valley region of Kenya. Findings from this study show distributions of vectors had biological and epidemiological significance in relation to disease outbreak hotspots, and hence provide guidance for the selection of sampling areas for RVF vectors during inter-epidemic periods

Genetic and Anatomic Determinants of Enzootic Venezuelan Equine Encephalitis Virus Infection of Culex (Melanoconion) taeniopus

Venezuelan equine encephalitis (VEE) is a re-emerging, mosquito-borne viral disease with the potential to cause fatal encephalitis in both humans and equids. Recently, detection of endemic VEE caused by enzootic strains has escalated in Mexico, Peru, Bolivia, Colombia and Ecuador, emphasizing the importance of understanding the enzootic transmission cycle of the etiologic agent, VEE virus (VEEV). The majority of work examining the viral determinants of vector infection has been performed in the epizootic mosquito vector, Aedes (Ochlerotatus) taeniorhynchus. Based on the fundamental differences between the epizootic and enzootic cycles, we hypothesized that the virus-vector interaction of the enzootic cycle is fundamentally different from that of the epizootic model. We therefore examined the determinants for VEEV IE infection in the enzootic vector, Culex (Melanoconion) taeniopus, and determined the number and susceptibility of midgut epithelial cells initially infected and their distribution compared to the epizootic virus-vector interaction. Using chimeric viruses, we demonstrated that the determinants of infection for the enzootic vector are different than those observed for the epizootic vector. Similarly, we showed that, unlike A. taeniorhynchus infection with subtype IC VEEV, C. taeniopus does not have a limited subpopulation of midgut cells susceptible to subtype IE VEEV. These findings support the hypothesis that the enzootic VEEV relationship with C. taeniopus differs from the epizootic virus-vector interaction in that the determinants appear to be found in both the nonstructural and structural regions, and initial midgut infection is not limited to a small population of susceptible cells

Temperature, Viral Genetics, and the Transmission of West Nile Virus by Culex pipiens Mosquitoes

The distribution and intensity of transmission of vector-borne pathogens can be strongly influenced by the competence of vectors. Vector competence, in turn, can be influenced by temperature and viral genetics. West Nile virus (WNV) was introduced into the United States of America in 1999 and subsequently spread throughout much of the Americas. Previously, we have shown that a novel genotype of WNV, WN02, first detected in 2001, spread across the US and was more efficient than the introduced genotype, NY99, at infecting, disseminating, and being transmitted by Culex mosquitoes. In the current study, we determined the relationship between temperature and time since feeding on the probability of transmitting each genotype of WNV. We found that the advantage of the WN02 genotype increases with the product of time and temperature. Thus, warmer temperatures would have facilitated the invasion of the WN02 genotype. In addition, we found that transmission of WNV accelerated sharply with increasing temperature, T, (best fit by a function of T4) showing that traditional degree-day models underestimate the impact of temperature on WNV transmission. This laboratory study suggests that both viral evolution and temperature help shape the distribution and intensity of transmission of WNV, and provides a model for predicting the impact of temperature and global warming on WNV transmission

Decelerating Spread of West Nile Virus by Percolation in a Heterogeneous Urban Landscape

Vector-borne diseases are emerging and re-emerging in urban environments throughout the world, presenting an increasing challenge to human health and a major obstacle to development. Currently, more than half of the global population is concentrated in urban environments, which are highly heterogeneous in the extent, degree, and distribution of environmental modifications. Because the prevalence of vector-borne pathogens is so closely coupled to the ecologies of vector and host species, this heterogeneity has the potential to significantly alter the dynamical systems through which pathogens propagate, and also thereby affect the epidemiological patterns of disease at multiple spatial scales. One such pattern is the speed of spread. Whereas standard models hold that pathogens spread as waves with constant or increasing speed, we hypothesized that heterogeneity in urban environments would cause decelerating travelling waves in incipient epidemics. To test this hypothesis, we analysed data on the spread of West Nile virus (WNV) in New York City (NYC), the 1999 epicentre of the North American pandemic, during annual epizootics from 2000–2008. These data show evidence of deceleration in all years studied, consistent with our hypothesis. To further explain these patterns, we developed a spatial model for vector-borne disease transmission in a heterogeneous environment. An emergent property of this model is that deceleration occurs only in the vicinity of a critical point. Geostatistical analysis suggests that NYC may be on the edge of this criticality. Together, these analyses provide the first evidence for the endogenous generation of decelerating travelling waves in an emerging infectious disease. Since the reported deceleration results from the heterogeneity of the environment through which the pathogen percolates, our findings suggest that targeting control at key sites could efficiently prevent pathogen spread to remote susceptible areas or even halt epidemics