NAO und Vorhersagbarkeit / NAO and predictability

Ein Überblick über die Güte heutiger NAO-Vorhersagen und Vorhersagbarkeit der NAO an sich wird gegeben. Der Einfluss der wesentlichen Prozesse auf die Vorhersagegüte auf saisonal-interannualen und dekadischen Zeitskalen wird zusammengetragen. Auf den saisonal-interannualen Zeitskalen ist vor allem die Wärmekapazität und der Wärmetransport der oberen Schichten des Nordatlantik von Bedeutung für den Anstieg der NAO-Vorhersagegüte. Statistische Modelle sowie gekoppelte Atmosphäre-Ozean-Ensemble-Vorhersagesysteme weisen für die beiden letzten Dekaden des 20 Jahrhunderts eine Vorhersagegüte von etwa 15 % auf. Die Vorhersagegüte über die letzten 50 Jahre liegt jedoch unter 10 %. Auf dekadischen Zeitskalen bildet die atlantische meridionale Umwälzbewegung eine Grundlage für die Vorhersagen des dekadischen Klimas in der atlantischen Region. A review of the NAO prediction and predictability is given. The impact of basic processes governing the NAO variability and their feasibility to enhance prediction skill on seasonal-to-interannual and decadal timescales is investigated. On seasonal-to-interannual timescales heat content and transport of the North Atlantic upper layer ocean can be essential to increase winter NAO prediction skill. Statistical models and coupled atmosphere-ocean ensemble prediction systems suggest a positive skill of about 15% for the latest decades in the 20th century. The prediction skill for the last 50 years, however, is below 10%. On decadal timescales particularly the meridional overturning circulation provides the basis for forecasts of the decadal climate over the North Atlantic region

Influence of the Coulomb Interaction on the Chemical Equilibrium of Nuclear Systems at Break-Up

The importance of a Coulomb correction to the formalism proposed by Albergo et al. for determining the temperatures of nuclear systems at break-up and the ensities of free nucleon gases is discussed. While the proposed correction has no effect on the temperatures extracted based on double isotope ratios, it becomes non-negligible when such temperatures or densities of free nucleon gases are extracted based on multiplicities of heavier fragments of different atomic numbers

Detailed study of null and time-like geodesics in the Alcubierre Warp spacetime

The Alcubierre warp spacetime yields a fascinating chance for comfortable interstellar travel between arbitrary distant places without the time dilation effect as in special relativistic flights. Even though the warp spacetime needs exotic matter for its construction and is thus far from being physically feasible, it offers a rich playground for studying geodesics in the general theory of relativity. This paper is addressed to graduate students who have finished a first course in general relativity to give them a deeper inside in the calculation of non-affinely parametrized null and time-like geodesics and a straightforward approach to determine the gravitational lensing effect due to curved spacetime by means of the Jacobi equation. Both topics are necessary for a thorough discussion of the visual effects as observed by a traveller inside the warp bubble or a person looking from outside. The visual effects of the traveller can be reproduced with an interactive Java application

Weak antiferromagnetism due to Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction in Ba3_3Cu2_2O4_4Cl2_2

The antiferromagnetic insulating cuprate Ba$_3$Cu$_2$O$_4$Cl$_2$ contains folded CuO$_2$ chains with four magnetic copper ions ($S=1/2$) per unit cell. An underlying multiorbital Hubbard model is formulated and the superexchange theory is developed to derive an effective spin Hamiltonian for this cuprate. The resulting spin Hamiltonian involves a Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya term and a more weak symmetric anisotropic exchange term besides the isotropic exchange interaction. The corresponding Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya vectors of each magnetic Cu-Cu bond in the chain reveal a well defined spatial order. Both, the superexchange theory and the complementary group theoretical consideration, lead to the same conclusion on the character of this order. The analysis of the ground-state magnetic properties of the derived model leads to the prediction of an additional noncollinear modulation of the antiferromagnetic structure. This weak antiferromagnetism is restricted to one of the Cu sublattices.Comment: 13 pages, 1 table, 4 figure

Cosmological particle production, causal thermodynamics, and inflationary expansion

Combining the equivalence between cosmological particle creation and an effective viscous fluid pressure with the fact that the latter represents a dynamical degree of freedom within the second-order Israel-Stewart theory for imperfect fluids, we reconsider the possibility of accelerated expansion in fluid cosmology. We find an inherent self-limitation for the magnitude of an effective bulk pressure which is due to adiabatic (isentropic) particle production. For a production rate which depends quadratically on the Hubble rate we confirm the existence of solutions which describe a smooth transition from inflationary to noninflationary behavior and discuss their interpretation within the model of a decaying vacuum energy density. An alternative formulation of the effective imperfect fluid dynamics in terms of a minimally coupled scalar field is given. The corresponding potential is discussed and an entropy equivalent for the scalar field is found.Comment: 16 pages, revtex file, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Robust skill of decadal climate predictions

There is a growing need for skilful predictions of climate up to a decade ahead. Decadal climate predictions show high skill for surface temperature, but confidence in forecasts of precipitation and atmospheric circulation is much lower. Recent advances in seasonal and annual prediction show that the signal-to-noise ratio can be too small in climate models, requiring a very large ensemble to extract the predictable signal. Here, we reassess decadal prediction skill using a much larger ensemble than previously available, and reveal significant skill for precipitation over land and atmospheric circulation, in addition to surface temperature. We further propose a more powerful approach than used previously to evaluate the benefit of initialisation with observations, improving our understanding of the sources of skill. Our results show that decadal climate is more predictable than previously thought and will aid society to prepare for, and adapt to, ongoing climate variability and change.D.M.S., A.A.S., N.J.D., L.H. and R.E. were supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra and by the European Commission Horizon 2020 EUCP project (GA 776613). L.P.C. was supported by the Spanish MINECO HIATUS (CGL2015-70353-R) project. F.J.D.R. was supported by the H2020 EUCP (GA 776613) and the Spanish MINECO CLINSA (CGL2017-85791-R) projects. W.A. M. and H.P. were supported by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) under the project MiKlip (grant 01LP1519A). The NCAR contribution was supported by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Program Office under Climate Variability and Predictability Program Grant NA13OAR4310138 and by the US National Science Foundation (NSF) Collaborative Research EaSM2 Grant OCE-1243015. The NCAR contribution is also based upon work supported by NCAR, which is a major facility sponsored by the US NSF under Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977. The Community Earth System Model Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (CESM-DPLE) was generated using computational resources provided by the US National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, which is supported by the Office of Science of the US Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC02-05CH11231, as well as by an Accelerated Scientific Discovery grant for Cheyenne (https://doi.org/10.5065/D6RX99HX) that was awarded by NCAR’s Computational and Information System Laboratory.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Hydrodynamics and Flow

In this lecture note, we present several topics on relativistic hydrodynamics and its application to relativistic heavy ion collisions. In the first part we give a brief introduction to relativistic hydrodynamics in the context of heavy ion collisions. In the second part we present the formalism and some fundamental aspects of relativistic ideal and viscous hydrodynamics. In the third part, we start with some basic checks of the fundamental observables followed by discussion of collective flow, in particular elliptic flow, which is one of the most exciting phenomenon in heavy ion collisions at relativistic energies. Next we discuss how to formulate the hydrodynamic model to describe dynamics of heavy ion collisions. Finally, we conclude the third part of the lecture note by showing some results from ideal hydrodynamic calculations and by comparing them with the experimental data.Comment: 40 pages, 35 figures; lecture given at the QGP Winter School, Jaipur, India, Feb.1-3, 2008; to appear in Springer Lecture Notes in Physic

DN interaction from meson exchange

A model of the DN interaction is presented which is developed in close analogy to the meson-exchange KbarN potential of the Juelich group utilizing SU(4) symmetry constraints. The main ingredients of the interaction are provided by vector meson (rho, omega) exchange and higher-order box diagrams involving D*N, D\Delta, and D*\Delta intermediate states. The coupling of DN to the pi-Lambda_c and pi-Sigma_c channels is taken into account. The interaction model generates the Lambda_c(2595) resonance dynamically as a DN quasi-bound state. Results for DN total and differential cross sections are presented and compared with predictions of an interaction model that is based on the leading-order Weinberg-Tomozawa term. Some features of the Lambda_c(2595) resonance are discussed and the role of the near-by pi-Sigma_c threshold is emphasized. Selected predictions of the orginal KbarN model are reported too. Specifically, it is pointed out that the model generates two poles in the partial wave corresponding to the Lambda(1405) resonance.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figure