Income and Armed Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach

The large empirical conflict literature has established that there is a strong negative link between economic variables and the onset of an armed civil conflict. However, it has been difficult to demonstrate a clear causality between poor economic performance and increased risk of conflict because of potential endogeneity issues, especially for large country samples. Most existing studies that analyse the causal links focus on the effects of economic growth on conflict, even though conventional conflict studies find the strongest relationship for income levels. In this article, we use three new exogenous instruments for income per capita, based on historical data for mailing times, telegram charges and urbanization rates. Using instrumental variables methods and global panel data for the period 1946–2014, we show that the negative effect of income per capita on the probability of conflict onset is consistently strong and larger than in conventional estimations using pooled ordinary least square regressions

Transparent for whom? Dissemination of information on Ghana’s petroleum and mining revenue management

Greater transparency has been proposed as an antidote to mismanagement of natural resource revenues in resource-rich, developing countries. The dominant transparency narrative in policymaking attributes a key role to the public: once citizens gain information, they are predicted to use it to demand better resource governance. Whether the public receives the available information in the first place, however, has not been scrutinized in a large-N analysis. This article examines Ghanaians’ information sources and information-seeking behaviour using a unique survey with over 3500 respondents. Although Ghana has actively pursued transparency in its natural resource revenue management, most Ghanaians have poor access to understandable information as information is disseminated through channels that the intended receivers normally do not use. Non-elite citizens and those with limited English skills were least likely to have heard about natural resource revenue management, compared with elected duty bearers, traditional authorities, other opinion leaders, and those with an interest in the issue through working in mining or living near an extraction site. The results suggest that the conceptualisation of transparency may be too simplistic, and that the expectations linked to transparency in enhancing natural resource governance may not materialise through the mechanisms hypothesised in the literature

Does information matter? Transparency and demand for accountability in Ghana's natural resource revenue management

Transparency in resource revenue management is frequently cited as an important strategy to avoid misuse and misappropriation. The underlying theory proposes that transparency will allow citizens to gain (more) information on their country’s revenues and their management; better informed citizens in turn will be able to contribute to the debate on national resource governance issues, voice their concerns, and demand improved accountability if necessary. However, there is little micro-level evidence so far to show how transparency policies actually relate to better citizen knowledge, or to any difference in attitudes towards revenue management and in demand for accountability. To address these points, we analyze data from a unique survey of over 3500 Ghanaian citizens to understand how Ghana’s extractive sector transparency measures are linked to citizens’ knowledge, rights perception, satisfaction levels, and behavior regarding resource revenue management. Our results suggest that information levels among citizens are generally quite poor; however, there is a strong sense of citizens’ right to benefit from resource revenues. Satisfaction with the current use of natural resource revenues is very low; yet, few respondents have sought more information, or even discussed resource revenue management with friends or family. The results also hold for elected representatives, who should be best placed to influence resource governance. The findings imply that the transparency discourse may hinge on false assumptions of the effects of information in resource revenue management. If the policy is to work as a way of increasing accountability of government towards citizens, the focus may need to shift to informing civil society organizations in particular, rather than simply making information available as widely as possible

Transparent for whom? Dissemination of information on Ghana’s petroleum and mining revenue management

This article examines how Ghanaians access information about national and local issues in general and, in particular, how and to what extent they receive information about national and local natural resource revenue management. It also studies how the likelihood of having heard about resource revenue governance depends on individual, household, and geographical characteristics. The article uses descriptive and multivariate analysis based on a unique survey of over 3500 participants from 2016. The study finds that less than 10% of respondents knew how natural resource revenues (NRR) are managed locally, even in areas with mining activity or petroleum production; less than one-third had heard about NRR management in Ghana. Common citizens, those in remote rural areas, and those with limited English skills were least likely to have heard about NRR management, compared to elected duty bearers, traditional authorities, and other opinion leaders. Generally, people have few reliable information sources

Does information matter? Transparency and demand for accountability in Ghana's natural resource revenue management

Transparency in resource revenue management is frequently cited as an important strategy to avoid misuse and misappropriation. The underlying theory proposes that transparency will allow citizens to gain (more) information on their country’s revenues and their management; better informed citizens in turn will be able to contribute to the debate on national resource governance issues, voice their concerns, and demand improved accountability if necessary. However, there is little micro-level evidence so far to show how transparency policies actually relate to better citizen knowledge, or to any difference in attitudes towards revenue management and in demand for accountability. To address these points, we analyze data from a unique survey of over 3500 Ghanaian citizens to understand how Ghana’s extractive sector transparency measures are linked to citizens’ knowledge, rights perception, satisfaction levels, and behavior regarding resource revenue management. Our results suggest that information levels among citizens are generally quite poor; however, there is a strong sense of citizens’ right to benefit from resource revenues. Satisfaction with the current use of natural resource revenues is very low; yet, few respondents have sought more information, or even discussed resource revenue management with friends or family. The results also hold for elected representatives, who should be best placed to influence resource governance. The findings imply that the transparency discourse may hinge on false assumptions of the effects of information in resource revenue management. If the policy is to work as a way of increasing accountability of government towards citizens, the focus may need to shift to informing civil society organizations in particular, rather than simply making information available as widely as possible

Transparent for whom? Dissemination of information on Ghana’s petroleum and mining revenue management

This article examines how Ghanaians access information about national and local issues in general and, in particular, how and to what extent they receive information about national and local natural resource revenue management. It also studies how the likelihood of having heard about resource revenue governance depends on individual, household, and geographical characteristics. The article uses descriptive and multivariate analysis based on a unique survey of over 3500 participants from 2016. The study finds that less than 10% of respondents knew how natural resource revenues (NRR) are managed locally, even in areas with mining activity or petroleum production; less than one-third had heard about NRR management in Ghana. Common citizens, those in remote rural areas, and those with limited English skills were least likely to have heard about NRR management, compared to elected duty bearers, traditional authorities, and other opinion leaders. Generally, people have few reliable information sources

Does information matter? Transparency and demand for accountability in Ghana's natural resource revenue management

Transparency in resource revenue management is seen as an important strategy to avoid misuse and misappropriation. Theory predicts that transparency will allow citizens to gain information on revenue management; better informed citizens in turn will enter the debate on national resource governance issues, voice concerns, and demand improved accountability if necessary. However, there is little micro-level evidence on how transparency policies relate to better citizen knowledge, or to differences in attitudes towards revenue management and in demand for accountability. We analyze data from a unique survey of over 3500 Ghanaian citizens to understand how Ghana’s extractive sector transparency measures are linked to citizens’ knowledge, rights perception, satisfaction levels, and behavior regarding resource revenue management. Our results suggest that information levels among citizens are quite poor; however, there is a strong sense of citizens’ right to benefit from resource revenues. Satisfaction with the status quo is very low; yet, few respondents have sought more information, or even discussed resource revenue management with friends or family. The results also hold for elected representatives, who should be best placed to influence resource governance. The findings imply that the transparency discourse hinges on false assumptions of the effects of information in resource revenue management

Climate migration: Towards a better understanding and management : Finland and a Global Perspective

Climate migration is expected to increase in the future. This study brings together knowledge on climate and environmental change-induced migration and displacement within and across country borders, their effects and management. Climate migration is first examined from the perspective of vulnerable countries, regions and people. The EU INFORM Risk Index is used to identify vulnerable countries. In addition, potential migration routes are investigated, considering the areas of origin, transit and destination. Second, the management frameworks of climate migration are examined. In terms of governance, the international and regional perspective and respect for human rights are emphasised. The study shows that development of regular migration routes currently offers the most realistic possibility for protection and adaptation of climate migrants. Thirdly, good practices and their implementation to influence climate migration and adaptation with a particular focus on the international activities, knowledge and expertise in Finland are discussed. Climate migration is a multidimensional phenomenon, which is why actors in different sectors should increasingly work together to meet the challenges. In addition to international cooperation and partnerships, there is a need to promote cross-sectoral cooperation in managing climate migration at international and national levels.This publication is part of the implementation of the Government Plan for Analysis, Assessment and Research (tietokayttoon.fi). The content is the responsibility of the producers of the information and does not necessarily represent the view of the Government