The Hydrologic Regime At Sub-Arctic And Arctic Watersheds: Present And Projected

Thesis (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2011The wetlands in the Arctic Coastal Plain, Northern Alaska, support a multitude of wildlife and natural resources that depend upon the abundance of water. Observations and climate model simulations show that surface air temperature over the Alaskan arctic coast has risen in recent history. Thus a growing need exists to assess how the hydrology of these arctic wetlands will respond to the warming climate. A synthesis study was conducted combining the analysis of an extensive field campaign, which includes direct measurements of all components of the water balance, with a physically-based hydrologic model forced by downscaled climate projections. Currently, these wetlands exist despite a desert-like annual precipitation and a negative net summer water balance. Although evapotranspiration is the major pathway of water loss, there are multiple non-linear controls that moderate the evapotranspiration rates. At the primary study site within the Barrow Environmental Observatory, shallow ponding of snowmelt water occurs for nearly a month at the vegetated drained thaw lake basin. Modeling studies revealed that the duration and depth of the ponding are only replicated faithfully if the rims of low-centered polygons are represented. Simple model experiments suggest that the polygon type (low- or high-centered) controls watershed-scale runoff, evapotranspiration, and near-surface soil moisture. High-centered polygons increase runoff, while reducing near-surface soil moisture and evapotranspiration. Soil drying was not projected by the end-of-the century but differential ground subsidence could potentially dominate the direct effects of climate warming resulting in a drying of the Arctic Coastal Plain wetlands. A drier surface would increase the susceptibility to fire, which currently is a major part of the Alaskan sub-arctic but not the arctic landscape. High quality pre- and postfire data were collected in the same location in central Seward Peninsula, uniquely documenting short-term soil warming and wettening following a severe tundra fire. Overall, this research concludes that arctic and sub-arctic watershed-scale hydrology is affected by changes in climate, surface cover, and microtopographic structures. It is therefore crucial to merge hydrology, permafrost, vegetation, and geomorphology models and measurements at the appropriate scales to further refine the response of the Arctic Coastal Plain wetlands to climate warming

The evolution of ice-wedge polygon networks in tundra fire scars

Abstract In response to increasing temperatures and precipitation in the Arctic, ice-rich permafrost landscapes are undergoing rapid changes. In permafrost lowland landscapes, polygonal ice wedges are especially vulnerable, and their melting induces widespread subsidence triggering the transition from low-centered (LCP) to high-centered polygons (HCP) by forming degrading troughs. This process has an important impact on surface hydrology, as the connectivity of such trough networks determines the rate of drainage of an entire landscape (Liljedahl et al., 2016). While scientists have observed this degradation trend throughout large domains in the polygonal patterned Arctic landscape over timescales of multiple decades, it is especially evident in disturbed areas such as fire scars (Jones et al., 2015). Here, wildfires removed the insulating organic soil layer. We can therefore observe the LCP-to-HCP transition within only several years. Until now, studies on quantifying trough connectivity have been limited to local field studies and sparse time series only. With high-resolution Earth observation data, a more comprehensive analysis is possible. However, when considering the vast and ever-growing volumes of data generated, highly automated and scalable methods are needed that allow scientists to extract information on the geomorphic state and on changes over time of ice-wedge trough networks. In this study, we combine very-high-resolution (VHR) aerial imagery and comprehensive databases of segmented polygons derived from VHR optical satellite imagery (Witharana et al., 2018) to investigate the changing polygonal ground landscapes and their environmental implications in fire scars in Northern and Western Alaska. Leveraging the automated and scalable nature of our recently introduced approach (Rettelbach et al., 2021), we represent the polygon networks as graphs (a concept from computer science to describe complex networks) and use graph metrics to describe the state of these (hydrological) trough networks. Due to a lack of historical data, we cannot investigate a dense time series of a single representative study area on the evolution of the network, but rather leverage the possibilities of a space-for-time substitution. Thus, we focus on data from multiple fire scars of different ages (up to 120 years between date of disturbance and date of acquisition). With our approach, we might infer past and future states of degradation from the currently prevailing spatial patterns showing how this type of disturbed landscape evolves over space and time. It further allows scientists to gain insights into the complex geomorphology, hydrology, and ecology of landscapes, thus helping to quantify how they interact with climate change

Large CO\u3csub\u3e2\u3c/sub\u3e and CH\u3csub\u3e4\u3c/sub\u3e emissions from polygonal tundra during spring thaw in northern Alaska

The few prethaw observations of tundra carbon fluxes suggest that there may be large spring releases, but little is known about the scale and underlying mechanisms of this phenomenon. To address these questions, we combined ecosystem eddy flux measurements from two towers near Barrow, Alaska, with mechanistic soil-core thawing experiment. During a 2 week period prior to snowmelt in 2014, large fluxes were measured, reducing net summer uptake of CO2 by 46% and adding 6% to cumulative CH4 emissions. Emission pulses were linked to unique rain-on-snow events enhancing soil cracking. Controlled laboratory experiment revealed that as surface ice thaws, an immediate, large pulse of trapped gases is emitted. These results suggest that the Arctic CO2 and CH4 spring pulse is a delayed release of biogenic gas production from the previous fall and that the pulse can be large enough to offset a significant fraction of the moderate Arctic tundra carbon sink

Decadal-scale hotspot methane ebullition within lakes following abrupt permafrost thaw

Thermokarst lakes accelerate deep permafrost thaw and the mobilization of previously frozen soil organic carbon. This leads to microbial decomposition and large releases of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) that enhance climate warming. However, the time scale of permafrost-carbon emissions following thaw is not well known but is important for understanding how abrupt permafrost thaw impacts climate feedback. We combined field measurements and radiocarbon dating of CH4 ebullition with (a) an assessment of lake area changes delineated from high-resolution (1–2.5 m) optical imagery and (b) geophysical measurements of thaw bulbs (taliks) to determine the spatiotemporal dynamics of hotspot-seep CH4 ebullition in interior Alaska thermokarst lakes. Hotspot seeps are characterized as point-sources of high ebullition that release 14C-depleted CH4 from deep (up to tens of meters) within lake thaw bulbs year-round. Thermokarst lakes, initiated by a variety of factors, doubled in number and increased 37.5% in area from 1949 to 2009 as climate warmed. Approximately 80% of contemporary CH4 hotspot seeps were associated with this recent thermokarst activity, occurring where 60 years of abrupt thaw took place as a result of new and expanded lake areas. Hotspot occurrence diminished with distance from thermokarst lake margins. We attribute older 14C ages of CH4 released from hotspot seeps in older, expanding thermokarst lakes (14CCH4 20 079 ± 1227 years BP, mean ± standard error (s.e.m.) years) to deeper taliks (thaw bulbs) compared to younger 14CCH4 in new lakes (14CCH4 8526 ± 741 years BP) with shallower taliks. We find that smaller, non-hotspot ebullition seeps have younger 14C ages (expanding lakes 7473 ± 1762 years; new lakes 4742 ± 803 years) and that their emissions span a larger historic range. These observations provide a first-order constraint on the magnitude and decadal-scale duration of CH4-hotspot seep emissions following formation of thermokarst lakes as climate warms

Earlier snowmelt may lead to late season declines in plant productivity and carbon sequestration in Arctic tundra ecosystems

Arctic warming is affecting snow cover and soil hydrology, with consequences for carbon sequestration in tundra ecosystems. The scarcity of observations in the Arctic has limited our understanding of the impact of covarying environmental drivers on the carbon balance of tundra ecosystems. In this study, we address some of these uncertainties through a novel record of 119 site-years of summer data from eddy covariance towers representing dominant tundra vegetation types located on continuous permafrost in the Arctic. Here we found that earlier snowmelt was associated with more tundra net CO2 sequestration and higher gross primary productivity (GPP) only in June and July, but with lower net carbon sequestration and lower GPP in August. Although higher evapotranspiration (ET) can result in soil drying with the progression of the summer, we did not find significantly lower soil moisture with earlier snowmelt, nor evidence that water stress affected GPP in the late growing season. Our results suggest that the expected increased CO2 sequestration arising from Arctic warming and the associated increase in growing season length may not materialize if tundra ecosystems are not able to continue sequestering CO2 later in the season

Earlier snowmelt may lead to late season declines in plant productivity and carbon sequestration in Arctic tundra ecosystems

Arctic warming is affecting snow cover and soil hydrology, with consequences for carbon sequestration in tundra ecosystems. The scarcity of observations in the Arctic has limited our understanding of the impact of covarying environmental drivers on the carbon balance of tundra ecosystems. In this study, we address some of these uncertainties through a novel record of 119 site-years of summer data from eddy covariance towers representing dominant tundra vegetation types located on continuous permafrost in the Arctic. Here we found that earlier snowmelt was associated with more tundra net CO2 sequestration and higher gross primary productivity (GPP) only in June and July, but with lower net carbon sequestration and lower GPP in August. Although higher evapotranspiration (ET) can result in soil drying with the progression of the summer, we did not find significantly lower soil moisture with earlier snowmelt, nor evidence that water stress affected GPP in the late growing season. Our results suggest that the expected increased CO2 sequestration arising from Arctic warming and the associated increase in growing season length may not materialize if tundra ecosystems are not able to continue sequestering CO2 later in the season.Peer reviewe

Use of Very High Spatial Resolution Commercial Satellite Imagery and Deep Learning to Automatically Map Ice-Wedge Polygons across Tundra Vegetation Types

We developed a high-throughput mapping workflow, which centers on deep learning (DL) convolutional neural network (CNN) algorithms on high-performance distributed computing resources, to automatically characterize ice-wedge polygons (IWPs) from sub-meter resolution commercial satellite imagery. We applied a region-based CNN object instance segmentation algorithm, namely the Mask R-CNN, to automatically detect and classify IWPs in North Slope of Alaska. The central goal of our study was to systematically expound the DLCNN model interoperability across varying tundra types (sedge, tussock sedge, and non-tussock sedge) and image scene complexities to refine the understanding of opportunities and challenges for regional-scale mapping applications. We corroborated quantitative error statistics along with detailed visual inspections to gauge the IWP detection accuracies. We found promising model performances (detection accuracies: 89% to 96% and classification accuracies: 94% to 97%) for all candidate image scenes with varying tundra types. The mapping workflow discerned the IWPs by exhibiting low absolute mean relative error (AMRE) values (0.17–0.23). Results further suggest the importance of increasing the variability of training samples when practicing transfer-learning strategy to map IWPs across heterogeneous tundra cover types. Overall, our findings demonstrate the robust performances of IWPs mapping workflow in multiple tundra landscapes

Deep Convolutional Neural Networks for Automated Characterization of Arctic Ice-Wedge Polygons in Very High Spatial Resolution Aerial Imagery

The microtopography associated with ice-wedge polygons governs many aspects of Arctic ecosystem, permafrost, and hydrologic dynamics from local to regional scales owing to the linkages between microtopography and the flow and storage of water, vegetation succession, and permafrost dynamics. Wide-spread ice-wedge degradation is transforming low-centered polygons into high-centered polygons at an alarming rate. Accurate data on spatial distribution of ice-wedge polygons at a pan-Arctic scale are not yet available, despite the availability of sub-meter-scale remote sensing imagery. This is because the necessary spatial detail quickly produces data volumes that hamper both manual and semi-automated mapping approaches across large geographical extents. Accordingly, transforming big imagery into ‘science-ready’ insightful analytics demands novel image-to-assessment pipelines that are fueled by advanced machine learning techniques and high-performance computational resources. In this exploratory study, we tasked a deep-learning driven object instance segmentation method (i.e., the Mask R-CNN) with delineating and classifying ice-wedge polygons in very high spatial resolution aerial orthoimagery. We conducted a systematic experiment to gauge the performances and interoperability of the Mask R-CNN across spatial resolutions (0.15 m to 1 m) and image scene contents (a total of 134 km2) near Nuiqsut, Northern Alaska. The trained Mask R-CNN reported mean average precisions of 0.70 and 0.60 at thresholds of 0.50 and 0.75, respectively. Manual validations showed that approximately 95% of individual ice-wedge polygons were correctly delineated and classified, with an overall classification accuracy of 79%. Our findings show that the Mask R-CNN is a robust method to automatically identify ice-wedge polygons from fine-resolution optical imagery. Overall, this automated imagery-enabled intense mapping approach can provide a foundational framework that may propel future pan-Arctic studies of permafrost thaw, tundra landscape evolution, and the role of high latitudes in the global climate system

Convolutional Neural Networks for Automated Built Infrastructure Detection in the Arctic Using Sub-Meter Spatial Resolution Satellite Imagery

Rapid global warming is catalyzing widespread permafrost degradation in the Arctic, leading to destructive land-surface subsidence that destabilizes and deforms the ground. Consequently, human-built infrastructure constructed upon permafrost is currently at major risk of structural failure. Risk assessment frameworks that attempt to study this issue assume that precise information on the location and extent of infrastructure is known. However, complete, high-quality, uniform geospatial datasets of built infrastructure that are readily available for such scientific studies are lacking. While imagery-enabled mapping can fill this knowledge gap, the small size of individual structures and vast geographical extent of the Arctic necessitate large volumes of very high spatial resolution remote sensing imagery. Transforming this ‘big’ imagery data into ‘science-ready’ information demands highly automated image analysis pipelines driven by advanced computer vision algorithms. Despite this, previous fine resolution studies have been limited to manual digitization of features on locally confined scales. Therefore, this exploratory study serves as the first investigation into fully automated analysis of sub-meter spatial resolution satellite imagery for automated detection of Arctic built infrastructure. We tasked the U-Net, a deep learning-based semantic segmentation model, with classifying different infrastructure types (residential, commercial, public, and industrial buildings, as well as roads) from commercial satellite imagery of Utqiagvik and Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. We also conducted a systematic experiment to understand how image augmentation can impact model performance when labeled training data is limited. When optimal augmentation methods were applied, the U-Net achieved an average F1 score of 0.83. Overall, our experimental findings show that the U-Net-based workflow is a promising method for automated Arctic built infrastructure detection that, combined with existing optimized workflows, such as MAPLE, could be expanded to map a multitude of infrastructure types spanning the pan-Arctic