Understanding the Motives for Terrorism - Does it Have an Effect on Psychological Reactions? A Replication and Extension

The collective communication model of terrorism (CCMT) proposes that understanding terrorists' motives influences appraisal (threat perception and emotional well-being) and reaction to terrorism (intention to retaliate). Fischer et al. (2011) presented evidence from two experiments for the assumption that understanding motives of terrorism influences appraisal. The present preregistered experiment aimed to replicate their second experiment, validate the measures they used, and also test the second proposition of the CCMT. Ensuring sufficient power for multiple tests and the given effect size, we collected data from 188 participants. The findings by Fischer et al. (2011) were partly replicated, but the comparison of the original effect sizes and the effect sizes from the replication attempt does not provide convincing evidence for the hypothesis that understanding the motives for terrorism reduces the perceived threat or negative emotional impact of acts of terrorism. Correlations with other risk-perception measures call into question the validity of the items used to assess perceived threat. Results suggest that understanding the motives for terrorism may influence whether the targeted populations want to retaliate

The Influence of Adjustment Processes and Expected Social Impact on Responses to Risk: Towards a Transactional Model

Diese Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Reaktion von Menschen auf Risiko. Risiko bezeichnet das Produkt des negativen Nutzens möglicher Konsequenzen eines Ereignisses oder einer Handlung und deren Auftretenswahrscheinlichkeit. Risikowahrnehmung hängt demnach von der Integration von Wahrscheinlichkeitsurteilen und Urteilen über die Schwere der möglichen Konsequenzen eines Ereignisses ab. Über diesen rein rationalen Ansatz hinaus wurde gezeigt, dass dieser Prozess auch von affektiven Prozessen beeinflusst wird. Das Zusammenspiel von rationalen und emotionalen Prozessen auf die Informationsverarbeitung wird in Zwei-Prozess-Modellen beschrieben. Es wird angenommen, dass die Reaktion auf ein riskantes Ereignis, d.h. die Bewertung für das eigene Wohlbefinden (Risikobewertung) oder auch Entscheidungen zwischen riskanten Optionen (Risikoentscheidung) von der Risikowahrnehmung abhängen. Experimentelle Studien nutzen Risikoentscheidungen oder die Risikobewertung eines riskanten Ereignisses, um auf die zu Grunde liegende Risikowahrnehmung zu schließen. Die vorliegendene Arbeit zeigt jedoch, dass sich Personen mit unterschiedlicher Risikowahrnehmung in ihrer Risikobewertung nicht unterscheiden müssen. Diese Inkongruenz von Risikowahrnehmung und Risikobewertung geht möglicherweise auf Anpassungsprozesse zurück. Außerdem wurde in dieser Arbeit beobachtet, dass die Risikoneigung nicht nur von den zu erwartenden Konsequenzen für die eigene Person, sondern auch von Konsequenzen für andere Personen, abhängt. Beide Befunde stellen die Annahme, dass Reaktionen gegenüber Risiken allein auf der Risikowahrnehmung basieren, in Frage.This thesis examines the response of people to risk. Risk is defined as the product of an event’s disutility and the probability of its occurrence. Risk perception then refers to the integration of perceived probability and subjective value of a consequence. Going beyond this rational approach, the risk-as-feelings-hypothesis posits that risk perception is also a function of the immediate affective reactions to a possible event. A number of dual process theories that aim to integrate these two processes have been brought forward. It is assumed that risk perception determines the response to risk such as the appraisal of risk and decisions about risky options. Studies generally infer risk perceptions from reactions to a risky option such as choice behavior. The present research, however, shows that the same response to risk can be observed in individuals with different risk perceptions, possibly due to adjustment processes. Furthermore, it was found that an individual’s propensity for risk-taking depends not only on personal consequences but also on consequences a choice option is expected to have on another person. Both findings question the assumption that responses to risk are exclusively based on risk perception

A quantitative analysis of the taxonomy of artistic styles

Classifying artists and their work as distinct art styles has been an important task of scholars in the field of art history. Due to its subjectivity, scholars often contradict one another. Our project investigated differences in aesthetic qualities of seven art styles through quantitative means. This was achieved with state-of-the-art deep-learning paradigms to generate new images resembling the style of an artist or entire era. We conducted psychological experiments to measure the behavior of subjects when viewing these new art images. Two different experiments were used: In an eye-tracking study, subjects viewed art-style-specific generated images. Eye movements were recorded and then compared between art styles. In a visual singleton search study, subjects had to locate a style-outlier image among three images of an alternative style. Reaction time and accuracy were measured and analyzed. These experiments show that there are measurable differences in behavior when viewing images of varying art styles. From these differences, we constructed hierarchical clusterings relating art styles based on the different behaviors of subjects viewing the samples. Our study reveals a novel perspective on the classification of artworks into stylistic eras and motivates future research in the domain of empirical aesthetics through quantitative means

Market Entry Prediction Competition 2010

We submitted three models to the competition which were based on the I-SAW model. The models introduced four new assumptions. In the first model an adjustment process was introduced through which the tendency for exploration was higher at the beginning and decreased over time in the exploration stage. Another new assumption was that surprise as a factor influencing the weight of a trial in the sampling procedure was added. In the second model we added the possibility of an exclusion of unreliable experiences gained in the early trials of a game and the possibility of a revision of a reasonable alternative which was responsible for a very bad outcome in the previous trial. Three of the four added assumptions were combined in the third model. Because each of our models contains at least two new assumptions, we estimated the relative effect of each assumption on the estimation and prediction scores and carried out a test of robustness. In this way, we were able to clarify the usefulness of each added assumption

Kürze und Kometen

Mit Beiträgen von Johannes Binotto, Stefan Ramirez Pérez, Hans W. Koch, John Smith, Dietrich Leder, Miriam Gossing/Lina Sieckmann, Friedrich Nietzsche

Comparing Immersive Virtual Reality and PowerPoint as Methods for Delivering Safety Training: Impacts on Risk Perception, Learning, and Decision Making

In two experimental studies, we compared safety training given via immersive virtual reality with safety training given via PowerPoint in their effects on risk perception, learning, and risky choices. In Study 1, we compared the two methods in a sample of apprentices (N = 53) and also investigated whether participants’ conscientiousness and locus of control moderated the effects of safety training. In Study 1, we found an effect of training method on the change in risk perception in terms of probability judgments and on risky decisions but not on learning. In Study 2 (N = 68), we sought to replicate Study 1 and also tested whether domain-specific risk attitudes affected risk perception and choice. Furthermore, long-term effects of safety training on information recall and risk perception after a 6-month interval were assessed. The effects found in Study 1 could not be replicated in Study 2. Neither study found an interaction between presentation medium and personality. We conclude that the costly procedure of immersive virtual reality (VR) does not seem justified for safety training because the less costly PowerPoint procedure with vivid film scenes did not fare significantly worse with respect to changes in risk perception, learning outcomes, or decision making

Examining the generalizability of research findings from archival data

This initiative examined systematically the extent to which a large set of archival research findings generalizes across contexts. We repeated the key analyses for 29 original strategic management effects in the same context (direct reproduction) as well as in 52 novel time periods and geographies; 45% of the reproductions returned results matching the original reports together with 55% of tests in different spans of years and 40% of tests in novel geographies. Some original findings were associated with multiple new tests. Reproducibility was the best predictor of generalizability—for the findings that proved directly reproducible, 84% emerged in other available time periods and 57% emerged in other geographies. Overall, only limited empirical evidence emerged for context sensitivity. In a forecasting survey, independent scientists were able to anticipate which effects would find support in tests in new samples

Examining the generalizability of research findings from archival data

This initiative examined systematically the extent to which a large set of archival research findings generalizes across contexts. We repeated the key analyses for 29 original strategic management effects in the same context (direct reproduction) as well as in 52 novel time periods and geographies; 45% of the reproductions returned results matching the original reports together with 55% of tests in different spans of years and 40% of tests in novel geographies. Some original findings were associated with multiple new tests. Reproducibility was the best predictor of generalizability-for the findings that proved directly reproducible, 84% emerged in other available time periods and 57% emerged in other geographies. Overall, only limited empirical evidence emerged for context sensitivity. In a forecasting survey, independent scientists were able to anticipate which effects would find support in tests in new samples

Living Well in Times of Threat: The Importance of Adjustment Processes to Explain Functional Adaptation to Uncertain Security in Expatriates Deployed in the Sudan

The present study investigated expatriate humanitarian aid workers’ perceptions and responses to uncertain security while deployed in the Sudan. Interviews conducte in Khartoum (n = 7) and Darfur (n = 17) focused on risk perception, concern for personal security, and strategies used to function well in an insecure environment. Despite a high perceived general risk, as well as broad knowledge and experience with security incidents, participants often expressed low concern. General adjustment processes were drawn on to explain this finding, while different constellations of processes resulted in different patterns of adjustment. Functional adjustment, resulting in adequate risk perception, protective behavior, protection, and low concern, was characterized by a constellation of complementary activation of accommodation and assimilation processes