Determinants of Risk and Uncertainty in Oil Palm Nursery

Nigeria is the fourth largest producer of palm oil in the world after Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand in the order of annual production volume. The industry provides direct and indirect employment to about four million people in twenty-four oil palm growing states in Nigeria and beyond. However, oil palm production commences with planting and nurturing of oil palm seedlings in nursery, which is associated with risk and uncertainty. This study investigates the major determinants of risk and uncertainty in oil palm nursery using Tobit regression model.  Findings show that the major determinants of risk and uncertainty in oil palm nursery were incidence of pests, cost of sprouted seeds, lack of financial capital and seed adulteration. Therefore, it is recommended that management of risk and uncertainty in oil palm nursery should involve purchasing sprouted seed from the right source, pest and disease control and ample provision of financial capital. Keywords: Seed-adulteration, Tenera-hybrid-seed, Financial-capital, Risk-management, Tobit-model

The effects of rainfall and other weather parameters on cocoa production in nigeria

Cocoa is an important crop to Nigeria, as important as it is, the climatic factors affecting it's production cannot be controlled by human efforts. The effect of changing climate all over the world is also affecting the yield of cocoa in Nigeria. This study determines the effects of rainfall, temperature and relative humidity on Cocoa yield in Nigeria by analyzing the trend over three decades 1980-2011. The study made use of the annual readings of the three climatic parameters in question and the cocoa yield recorded over these periods. Data were subjected to inferential statistics and regression analysis in Stata. The results showed that the mean rainfall value over the three decades ranged from 1148.84 +_438.59mm, 1245.25 +_209.59 mm and 1186.27 +_175.02mm for period between 1980-1990, 1991-2000 and 2001-2011 respectively. While the yield ranged from 13.85 tons, 10.53tons and 14.21 tons; the temperature ranged from 24.64, 25.91 and 25.1oC while relative humidity also ranged between 74.91, 74.18 and 75.1% respectively in the decades. Regression of yield against rainfall shows negative correlation of 0.0067852, with temperature and relative humidity there exists positive correlations of 1.092 and 0.7346respectively. The study concluded that excessive rainfall decreases yield of cocoa, while increases in temperature and relative humidity boosts some physiological processes for pod production in Cocoa. The study recommends that farmers should adopt newly developed Cocoa varieties from Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria which are well adapted to beat the vagaries of weather changes being experienced for improved income and livelihood

THE EFFECTS OF RAINFALL AND OTHER WEATHER PARAMETERS ON COCOA PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA

Cocoa is an important crop to Nigeria, as important as it is, the climatic factors affecting it's production cannot be controlled by human efforts. The effect of changing climate all over the world is also affecting the yield of cocoa in Nigeria. This study determines the effects of rainfall, temperature and relative humidity on Cocoa yield in Nigeria by analyzing the trend over three decades 1980-2011. The study made use of the annual readings of the three climatic parameters in question and the cocoa yield recorded over these periods. Data were subjected to inferential statistics and regression analysis in Stata. The results showed that the mean rainfall value over the three decades ranged from 1148.84 +_438.59mm, 1245.25 +_209.59 mm and 1186.27 +_175.02mm for period between 1980-1990, 1991-2000 and 2001-2011 respectively. While the yield ranged from 13.85 tons, 10.53tons and 14.21 tons; the temperature ranged from 24.64, 25.91 and 25.1oC while relative humidity also ranged between 74.91, 74.18 and 75.1% respectively in the decades. Regression of yield against rainfall shows negative correlation of 0.0067852, with temperature and relative humidity there exists positive correlations of 1.092 and 0.7346respectively. The study concluded that excessive rainfall decreases yield of cocoa, while increases in temperature and relative humidity boosts some physiological processes for pod production in Cocoa. The study recommends that farmers should adopt newly developed Cocoa varieties from Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria which are well adapted to beat the vagaries of weather changes being experienced for improved income and livelihood

Profitability of production and resource-use efficiency among Ofada rice (Oryza sativa japonica) farmers in southwest, Nigeria

Ofadarice has recently gained prominence and it is quickly drawing international attention since it has revealed a strong consumer disposition and it has been perceived to be more nourishing due to its natural taste, a value added to this kind of rice. Nigeria has potential to produce it to self-sufficiency level but due to the inefficient use of inputs and in-availability of some inputs, this has become a mirage. Data was obtained from 180 rice farmers selected from the rice growing areas in Ogun state, with the use of well structured questionnaire. The data collected were then analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. The descriptive analysis showed that 70% of the farmers were males, the average age and farm size was 45years and 2.9ha, respectively. The maximum likelihood estimates of the stochastic production frontier model results showed that a unit increase in farm size, labour, seeds and chemicals used will result in extra 64.587kg, 3.98kg, 0.54kg, and 2.258kg of the output, respectively. Marginal value product (MVP) to the unit prices for these inputs was greater than one implying that all these resources were underutilized. The gross margin analysis revealed that the profit from rice farming was N56, 082 (US$373.88) per hectare per farmer. Farmers’ efficiency can be enhanced by increasing the area of land cultivated, labour used, quantity of seeds and chemicals used for production.Ofadarice has recently gained prominence and it is quickly drawing international attention since it has revealed a strong consumer disposition and it has been perceived to be more nourishing due to its natural taste, a value added to this kind of rice. Nigeria has potential to produce it to self-sufficiency level but due to the inefficient use of inputs and in-availability of some inputs, this has become a mirage. Data was obtained from 180 rice farmers selected from the rice growing areas in Ogun state, with the use of well structured questionnaire. The data collected were then analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. The descriptive analysis showed that 70$373.88) per hectare per farmer. Farmers’ efficiency can be enhanced by increasing the area of land cultivated, labour used, quantity of seeds and chemicals used for production

WELFARE TRANSITIONS AND ITS CORRELATES AMONG COCOA FARMING HOUSEHOLDS IN NIGERIA: AN APPLICATION OF ORDERED PROBIT APPROACH

This study determined the correlates of welfare using panel data collected in heavy and light cocoa seasons through multistage sampling techniques from 366 cocoa farming households. Data collected were subjected to descriptive and Ordered Probit model of analysis using STATA. Welfare categories were based on the relative poverty line constructed from the mean per capita household expenditure for each season. Results revealed that male-headed households were more among the cocoa farming households, with mean age of 54 ±12.64 years, household size of 7 ±3.19 persons, farming experience 28 ± 14.41 years and mean age of the cocoa trees were 30 ± 19.21 years and this shows that the farmers and their cocoa trees are old, there by affecting the productivity and the welfare of the farmers. The ordered probit result corroborates this results because age of household head (p<0.5), gender of household head (p<0.1), age of cocoa (p<0.1), poor access to credit (p<0.1), poor collateral status (p<0.01) and unfavourable government policy (p<0.5) on cocoa production negatively affects welfare of Cocoa Farming Households while literacy (p<0.1), type of land tenure system used on cocoa farm (p<0.01), price stability of produce (p<0.01) and good harvest from plantations (p<0.01) enhanced cocoa farming households’ welfare

Adaptation of the Wound Healing Questionnaire universal-reporter outcome measure for use in global surgery trials (TALON-1 study): mixed-methods study and Rasch analysis

BackgroundThe Bluebelle Wound Healing Questionnaire (WHQ) is a universal-reporter outcome measure developed in the UK for remote detection of surgical-site infection after abdominal surgery. This study aimed to explore cross-cultural equivalence, acceptability, and content validity of the WHQ for use across low- and middle-income countries, and to make recommendations for its adaptation.MethodsThis was a mixed-methods study within a trial (SWAT) embedded in an international randomized trial, conducted according to best practice guidelines, and co-produced with community and patient partners (TALON-1). Structured interviews and focus groups were used to gather data regarding cross-cultural, cross-contextual equivalence of the individual items and scale, and conduct a translatability assessment. Translation was completed into five languages in accordance with Mapi recommendations. Next, data from a prospective cohort (SWAT) were interpreted using Rasch analysis to explore scaling and measurement properties of the WHQ. Finally, qualitative and quantitative data were triangulated using a modified, exploratory, instrumental design model.ResultsIn the qualitative phase, 10 structured interviews and six focus groups took place with a total of 47 investigators across six countries. Themes related to comprehension, response mapping, retrieval, and judgement were identified with rich cross-cultural insights. In the quantitative phase, an exploratory Rasch model was fitted to data from 537 patients (369 excluding extremes). Owing to the number of extreme (floor) values, the overall level of power was low. The single WHQ scale satisfied tests of unidimensionality, indicating validity of the ordinal total WHQ score. There was significant overall model misfit of five items (5, 9, 14, 15, 16) and local dependency in 11 item pairs. The person separation index was estimated as 0.48 suggesting weak discrimination between classes, whereas Cronbach's α was high at 0.86. Triangulation of qualitative data with the Rasch analysis supported recommendations for cross-cultural adaptation of the WHQ items 1 (redness), 3 (clear fluid), 7 (deep wound opening), 10 (pain), 11 (fever), 15 (antibiotics), 16 (debridement), 18 (drainage), and 19 (reoperation). Changes to three item response categories (1, not at all; 2, a little; 3, a lot) were adopted for symptom items 1 to 10, and two categories (0, no; 1, yes) for item 11 (fever).ConclusionThis study made recommendations for cross-cultural adaptation of the WHQ for use in global surgical research and practice, using co-produced mixed-methods data from three continents. Translations are now available for implementation into remote wound assessment pathways