Navigating Weather, Water, Ice and Climate Information for Safe Polar Mobilities

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Polar Prediction Project (PPP) was conceived and initiated in 2012 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), through its World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), in response to rapid environmental change in the Polar Regions. The primary goal of the PPP is to advance scientific knowledge such that society, both within and outside of the Arctic and Antarctic, may benefit through applications of improved weather and climate services. This includes improved understanding and prediction of physical parameters and the ways people use the available information. To this end, the Polar Prediction Project Societal and Economic Research and Applications (PPP-SERA) working group was established in 2015. This report represents the foundational work of PPP-SERA and aims to explore how weather, water, ice and climate (WWIC) information is currently being used and produced in the Polar Regions, by whom, and for what reasons. The report also identifies, frames and articulates important areas of research related to the use and provision of environmental prediction services that should be prioritized and further developed during, and beyond, the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP, 2017-19). The concepts of information value chains and human mobilities are used in this document to conceptualize the complex interaction between the production and use of environmental prediction information. This approach facilitates: (a) the exploration of WWIC-related risks that affect physical movement of people, goods and services between places (i.e. mobilities); (b) an examination of the demand for, and production and mobilization of, WWIC knowledge and information that can inform user decisions (i.e. value chain). We identify that WWIC information provision occurs through a variety of actors, from formal state institutions, to private and community-based organizations, to Indigenous and local knowledge obtained by a range of individual actors or groups, positioned in an increasingly complex value chain of information provision and use. The constitution, functioning and implications of these increasingly complex WWIC information value chains are currently not fully understood. Value chains used to describe linear processes whereby WWIC information was transferred directly from providers to users. Today, users not only consume WWIC information but they also co-produce data, information, and decisionmaking products. This has largely been facilitated by technological advancement and improved communications via the Internet, which promotes a decentralization of WWIC information services. Consequently, it is difficult to discern whether or not user needs are being adequately identified and addressed by providers and whether WWIC services are adding value to users. Our analysis indicates that human activities and mobility sectors operating in the Polar Regions vary widely in size and scope, and are diverse in terms of operational contexts and practices. Despite the challenge of mapping the temporal and spatial dimensions of human activities in the Polar Regions, due to a paucity of consistent information, we discuss relevant characteristics and future prospects of a range of distinct mobility sectors including: (a) commercial transportation (shipping and aviation); (b) tourism: (c) fishing; (d) resource extraction and development; (e) community activities; (f) government activities and scientific research. Most activities are on the rise and human activities in the Polar Regions are becoming increasingly diversified. Users appear to be increasingly dependent on specialised WWIC information services and technology needed to access these. More detailed, specialized and near-real-time weather and climate services are required to provide relevant information for a diversity of contexts and practices. While higher-quality WWIC information and greater resolution of data is necessary for some, it is insufficient for all. There is no ‘one-size-fits-all’ data product needed to assist the variety of users. Furthermore, the existence of more and improved WWIC information does not necessarily mean that it will be used. For WWIC data to be valuable and used, they must be trusted, easily understood, accessible, and packaged for easy transmission to remote areas with limited Internet bandwidth. There is also a need for systematic documentation regarding particular uses of existing WWIC information services, and thus more work is needed to collect data necessary to situate human activities and their mobilities within their spatial-temporal contexts and decisionmaking practices. To respond to these knowledge gaps, we identify that in-depth qualitative and quantitative research is needed which explores: (a) user information needs, behaviours and preferences; (b) the relationship between users and providers of WWIC information, including the co-production of services; (c) factors that enable or constrain access to, or provision of, WWIC information services; (d) infrastructure and communication needs. PPP-SERA, and social scientists involved in research that focuses on the Polar Regions more broadly, can contribute to addressing some of the knowledge gaps outlined in this document. We have compiled an initial database of sources for WWIC information that is of relevance for different user sectors and across different regions, and we envision broader and ongoing contributions to this effort. We also identify a need for categorization of users, decision factors, services sought and providers tailoring products for specific mobilities. This will highlight the complexity and interconnections between users, providers and decisionmaking contexts across the Polar Regions. The Polar Regions are undergoing dramatic environmental changes while seeing a general growth and diversification of human activity. These changes imply that WWIC services not only need to respond to rapidly transforming environmental parameters, but ought to be salient in the diverse contexts in which users engage with them. While it is still largely unknown how WWIC information services are currently being used, and to what extent they influence decisionmaking and planning, improved access to, and quality of, WWIC information is considered as significant for reducing the risks related to human activities in dynamic polar environments

A mass-loss rate determination for zeta Puppis from the quantitative analysis of X-ray emission line profiles

We fit every emission line in the high-resolution Chandra grating spectrum of zeta Pup with an empirical line profile model that accounts for the effects of Doppler broadening and attenuation by the bulk wind. For each of sixteen lines or line complexes that can be reliably measured, we determine a best-fitting fiducial optical depth, tau_* = kappa*Mdot/4{pi}R_{\ast}v_{\infty}, and place confidence limits on this parameter. These sixteen lines include seven that have not previously been reported on in the literature. The extended wavelength range of these lines allows us to infer, for the first time, a clear increase in tau_* with line wavelength, as expected from the wavelength increase of bound-free absorption opacity. The small overall values of tau_*, reflected in the rather modest asymmetry in the line profiles, can moreover all be fit simultaneously by simply assuming a moderate mass-loss rate of 3.5 \pm 0.3 \times 10^{-6} Msun/yr, without any need to invoke porosity effects in the wind. The quoted uncertainty is statistical, but the largest source of uncertainty in the derived mass-loss rate is due to the uncertainty in the elemental abundances of zeta Pup, which affects the continuum opacity of the wind, and which we estimate to be a factor of two. Even so, the mass-loss rate we find is significantly below the most recent smooth-wind H-alpha mass-loss rate determinations for zeta Pup, but is in line with newer determinations that account for small-scale wind clumping. If zeta Pup is representative of other massive stars, these results will have important implications for stellar and galactic evolution.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. 17 pages, including 14 figures (7 color

Initiating and upscaling mussel reef establishment with life cycle informed restoration:Successes and future challenges

Worldwide, coastal ecosystems are rapidly degrading in quality and extent. While novel restoration designs include facilitation to enhance restoration success in stressful environments, they typically focus on a single life-stage, even though many organisms go through multiple life-stages accompanied by different bottlenecks. A new approach – life cycle informed restoration – was designed to ameliorate multiple bottlenecks throughout an organism's life cycle. It has successfully been tested on a small scale to facilitate intertidal bivalve reef formation in the Netherlands and Florida. Yet, it remains unknown whether this approach can be scaled to ecosystem-relevant scales. To test whether life cycle informed restoration is upscalable, we conducted a large-scale restoration experiment using blue mussel reefs as a model system. In our experiment, we used biodegradable structures to temporarily facilitate mussel reef formation by providing early-life settlement substrates, and subsequently, reduce post-settlement predation on an intertidal flat in the Wadden Sea, the Netherlands. The structures were placed in 10 × 20 m plots, mimicking bands found in natural mussel beds, spread out across 650 m, and were followed for two years. Our results show that the structures enhance mussel biomass (0.7 ± 0.2 kg DW m−2), as mussels were absent in bare plots. However, biomass varied within plots; in intact structures it was 60 times higher (1.2 ± 0.2 kg DW m−2) than in those that became buried (0.02 ± 0.009 kg DW m−2). Next to burial, 18–46% of the structures were lost due to technical failure, especially during winters at this exposed site. We show that the life cycle informed restoration principle works, but we encountered technical challenges due to larger scale processes (e.g. sedimentation). Furthermore, environmental information is essential for site selection, and for restoration, the functioning of such structures should be tested under extreme conditions before upscaling

Psychosocial factors, health behaviors and risk of cancer incidence: Testing interaction and effect modification in an individual participant data meta-analysis

Depression, anxiety and other psychosocial factors are hypothesized to be involved in cancer development. We examined whether psychosocial factors interact with or modify the effects of health behaviors, such as smoking and alcohol use, in relation to cancer incidence. Two-stage individual participant data meta-analyses were performed based on 22 cohorts of the PSYchosocial factors and CAncer (PSY-CA) study. We examined nine psychosocial factors (depression diagnosis, depression symptoms, anxiety diagnosis, anxiety symptoms, perceived social support, loss events, general distress, neuroticism, relationship status), seven health behaviors/behavior-related factors (smoking, alcohol use, physical activity, body mass index, sedentary behavior, sleep quality, sleep duration) and seven cancer outcomes (overall cancer, smoking-related, alcohol-related, breast, lung, prostate, colorectal). Effects of the psychosocial factor, health behavior and their product term on cancer incidence were estimated using Cox regression. We pooled cohort-specific estimates using multivariate random-effects meta-analyses. Additive and multiplicative interaction/effect modification was examined. This study involved 437,827 participants, 36,961 incident cancer diagnoses, and 4,749,481 person years of follow-up. Out of 744 combinations of psychosocial factors, health behaviors, and cancer outcomes, we found no evidence of interaction. Effect modification was found for some combinations, but there were no clear patterns for any particular factors or outcomes involved. In this first large study to systematically examine potential interaction and effect modification, we found no evidence for psychosocial factors to interact with or modify health behaviors in relation to cancer incidence. The behavioral risk profile for cancer incidence is similar in people with and without psychosocial stress

Psychosocial factors, health behaviors and risk of cancer incidence:Testing interaction and effect modification in an individual participant data meta-analysis

Depression, anxiety and other psychosocial factors are hypothesized to be involved in cancer development. We examined whether psychosocial factors interact with or modify the effects of health behaviors, such as smoking and alcohol use, in relation to cancer incidence. Two-stage individual participant data meta-analyses were performed based on 22 cohorts of the PSYchosocial factors and CAncer (PSY-CA) study. We examined nine psychosocial factors (depression diagnosis, depression symptoms, anxiety diagnosis, anxiety symptoms, perceived social support, loss events, general distress, neuroticism, relationship status), seven health behaviors/behavior-related factors (smoking, alcohol use, physical activity, body mass index, sedentary behavior, sleep quality, sleep duration) and seven cancer outcomes (overall cancer, smoking-related, alcohol-related, breast, lung, prostate, colorectal). Effects of the psychosocial factor, health behavior and their product term on cancer incidence were estimated using Cox regression. We pooled cohort-specific estimates using multivariate random-effects meta-analyses. Additive and multiplicative interaction/effect modification was examined. This study involved 437,827 participants, 36,961 incident cancer diagnoses, and 4,749,481 person years of follow-up. Out of 744 combinations of psychosocial factors, health behaviors, and cancer outcomes, we found no evidence of interaction. Effect modification was found for some combinations, but there were no clear patterns for any particular factors or outcomes involved. In this first large study to systematically examine potential interaction and effect modification, we found no evidence for psychosocial factors to interact with or modify health behaviors in relation to cancer incidence. The behavioral risk profile for cancer incidence is similar in people with and without psychosocial stress.</p

Psychosocial factors, health behaviors and risk of cancer incidence:Testing interaction and effect modification in an individual participant data meta-analysis

Depression, anxiety and other psychosocial factors are hypothesized to be involved in cancer development. We examined whether psychosocial factors interact with or modify the effects of health behaviors, such as smoking and alcohol use, in relation to cancer incidence. Two-stage individual participant data meta-analyses were performed based on 22 cohorts of the PSYchosocial factors and CAncer (PSY-CA) study. We examined nine psychosocial factors (depression diagnosis, depression symptoms, anxiety diagnosis, anxiety symptoms, perceived social support, loss events, general distress, neuroticism, relationship status), seven health behaviors/behavior-related factors (smoking, alcohol use, physical activity, body mass index, sedentary behavior, sleep quality, sleep duration) and seven cancer outcomes (overall cancer, smoking-related, alcohol-related, breast, lung, prostate, colorectal). Effects of the psychosocial factor, health behavior and their product term on cancer incidence were estimated using Cox regression. We pooled cohort-specific estimates using multivariate random-effects meta-analyses. Additive and multiplicative interaction/effect modification was examined. This study involved 437,827 participants, 36,961 incident cancer diagnoses, and 4,749,481 person years of follow-up. Out of 744 combinations of psychosocial factors, health behaviors, and cancer outcomes, we found no evidence of interaction. Effect modification was found for some combinations, but there were no clear patterns for any particular factors or outcomes involved. In this first large study to systematically examine potential interaction and effect modification, we found no evidence for psychosocial factors to interact with or modify health behaviors in relation to cancer incidence. The behavioral risk profile for cancer incidence is similar in people with and without psychosocial stress.</p

Depression, anxiety, and the risk of cancer:An individual participant data meta-analysis

Background: Depression and anxiety have long been hypothesized to be related to an increased cancer risk. Despite the great amount of research that has been conducted, findings are inconclusive. To provide a stronger basis for addressing the associations between depression, anxiety, and the incidence of various cancer types (overall, breast, lung, prostate, colorectal, alcohol-related, and smoking-related cancers), individual participant data (IPD) meta-analyses were performed within the Psychosocial Factors and Cancer Incidence (PSY-CA) consortium. Methods: The PSY-CA consortium includes data from 18 cohorts with measures of depression or anxiety (up to N = 319,613; cancer incidences, 25,803; person-years of follow-up, 3,254,714). Both symptoms and a diagnosis of depression and anxiety were examined as predictors of future cancer risk. Two-stage IPD meta-analyses were run, first by using Cox regression models in each cohort (stage 1), and then by aggregating the results in random-effects meta-analyses (stage 2). Results: No associations were found between depression or anxiety and overall, breast, prostate, colorectal, and alcohol-related cancers. Depression and anxiety (symptoms and diagnoses) were associated with the incidence of lung cancer and smoking-related cancers (hazard ratios [HRs], 1.06–1.60). However, these associations were substantially attenuated when additionally adjusting for known risk factors including smoking, alcohol use, and body mass index (HRs, 1.04–1.23). Conclusions: Depression and anxiety are not related to increased risk for most cancer outcomes, except for lung and smoking-related cancers. This study shows that key covariates are likely to explain the relationship between depression, anxiety, and lung and smoking-related cancers. Preregistration number: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=157677.</p