Scotland as an Optimal Currency Area

Since the Scottish independence movement has reached the point that there will be a referendum on Scottish independence this September, the issue of whether the Scotland is optimal currency areas is very topical.In this paper we review the microeconomic foundations of an optimal currency area. We test these microeconomic foundations. We find that the UK, Scotland and the UK without Scotland meet the microeconomic criteria for a common currency area. While adopting a common currency is ultimately a political decision, these results imply that the broadest of these areas, the UK, is the optimal currency area in the sense of minimizing transactions costs.We do find differences in the UK less Scotland and Scotland economies in loan data. We further find that neither the euro bloc nor the euro bloc including Scotland meet the microeconomic criteria for a common currency area. In the event of a “yes” vote for Scottish independence, the immediate problem facing the Scottish government is to decide on an exchange rate regime that is seen as credible by the financial markets to avoid a flight of capital. How policymakers chooses between alternative exchange rate regimes is currently a topic for hot debate in central banking circles and the process of a monetary union breaking up is a fascinating area worthy of future research

“Risky” monetary aggregates for the UK and US

We extend the scope of monetary aggregation beyond capital certain assets that make up central bank data sets and identify groups of assets that form monetary aggregates composed of both capital certain and risky, capital uncertain, assets. We construct monetary aggregates for the US and UK using a superlative index and relax a key assumption of the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM), a one year planning horizon, by using forecasted returns on risky assets. Our new risky monetary aggregates perform well in VAR tests. We recommended exploring risky assets as providers of liquidity services in future research on this topic

Scotland as an optimal currency area

The June 2016 UK referendum on continued EU membership where the people of Scotland voted to remain, while the rest of the United Kingdom voted to leave, once again makes the issue of whether Scotland is an optimal currency area very topical. England voted strongly to leave Europe while Scotland backed remain by 62% to 38%. The Scottish government published its draft bill on a second independence referendum in October 2016. The move does not mean another referendum will definitely be held, but this does raise the possibility that Scotland might choose independence and staying in the EU without the rest of the United Kingdom. If Scotland charts a course of independence from the rest of the United Kingdom, then they would likely either issue their own currency or join or form another currency area. In this paper, we test the microeconomic foundations of a common currency area for Scotland, United Kingdom, and the rest of the United Kingdom without Scotland. We find that the United Kingdom, Scotland, and the United Kingdom without Scotland all meet the microeconomic criteria for a common currency area. In contrast, banking data suggest that lending in Scotland is different from lending in the rest of the United Kingdom, adding some doubt to the issue of whether or not Scotland is a common currency area with the United Kingdom.</p

Investment Opportunities Forecasting: Extending the Grammar of a GP-based Tool

In this paper we present a new version of a GP financial forecasting tool, called EDDIE 8. The novelty of this version is that it allows the GP to search in the space of indicators, instead of using pre-specified ones. We compare EDDIE 8 with its predecessor, EDDIE 7, and find that new and improved solutions can be found. Analysis also shows that, on average, EDDIE 8's best tree performs better than the one of EDDIE 7. The above allows us to characterize EDDIE 8 as a valuable forecasting tool

Testing approach to new fibre-reinforced UHTC materials in the C3HARME project

In space applications, very high temperatures are often a driving environmental condition for certain technologies. This is especially true for the engines of rockets and for re-entry systems where thermal protection is vital. With current state-of-the-art systems of both types, there are in some cases materials used which are simply consumed because temperatures are so high, there is no choice of a material able to withstand the conditions. In order to overcome these restraints, Ultra-high-temperature ceramics (UHTC) provide an option in terms of the pure temperature capability of the material. However, bulk UHTC materials so far suffered from the problem of rather low mechanical properties and especially size limitations due to thermal shock sensitivity. If this situation could be improved by introducing a fibre reinforcement and combining the advantages of UHTC with the robustness of Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMC), the resulting UHTCMC materials could open up a whole new world of possibilities for new designs and flight regimes of the systems mentioned. The C3HARME project aims at exactly that. The goal is to develop new fibre-reinforced UHTC types and to significantly improve the maturity of them to a level of TRL 5-6. In order to do so, the thermo-mechanical characterization of samples and components is of great importance. A multitude of different tests are done to get the full data set of all the relevant properties from room temperature up to very high temperatures as they are encountered in the application scenario. The talk will give an overview about the characterization strategy and the individual tests and facilities applied with some of the results already obtained

Retained strength of UHTCMCs after oxidation at 2278 K

In the frame of Horizon 2020 European C3HARME research project, the manufacture of ZrB2-based CMCs was developed through different processes: slurry infiltration and sintering, radio frequency chemical vapour infiltration (RF-CVI) and reactive metal infiltration (RMI). To assess the high temperature stability, room temperature bending strength was measured after oxidizing the samples at 2278 K and compared to the strength of the as-produced materials. Microstructures were analysed before and after the thermal treatment to assess the damage induced by the high temperature oxidation. Short fibre-reinforced composites showed the highest retained strength (>80%) and an unchanged stress–strain curve

La función autocaptura en marcapasos VVIR. Experiência del estudio multicéntrico

La función de Autocaptura verifica la captura latido a latido. La búsqueda automática del umbral de estimulación, ajusta el potencial de salida 0.3 V. por encima del valor medido. Ante la pérdida de captura de un estímulo, el sistema emite un segundo impulso de 4.5 V. a los 65 mseg. para conseguir captura, evitando con ello pausas del ritmo cardíaco. La función de Autocaptura nos ofrece por ello una estimulación segura de bajo consumo. El sistema ha sido incorporado a un marcapasos VVI R de 12.8 gr. de peso y 5.9 cm3 de volumen, de estimulación unipolar y detección bipolar. Presentamos la experiencia de un estudio multicéntrico que incluye 113 pacientes, 57 hombres y 56 mujeres. La edad media fue de 76 anos (45 - 93). La indicación ECG fue de fibrilación auricular con pobre respuesta ventricular en el 84% de los casos y de bloqueo A-V en el restante 16%. Se han revisado los protocolos de 112 controles de alta hospitalaria, 107 de 30 dias, 94 de 3 meses y 49 de 6 meses. En todos los casos se ha practicado un registro Holter de 24 horas al mes de la implantacion. EI valor medio de umbral de estimulación en el momenta de la implantación fue de 0.6 V., a 1 mes de 1.3 V., a los 3 meses de 1.3 V. Y a los 6 meses de 1.2 V. Los valores medios medidos de onda R intrínseca / onda R evocada fueron en la implantación de 14.7/10.2 mV., al mes 16.8/ 10.0 mV., a los 3 meses 16.5/10.2 mV. ya los 6 meses 17.5/10.2 mV. Se ha calculado un consumo medio de 3.9 ± 0.8 mAo con 10 que la longevidad del generador resulta de entre 7 y 8 anos. El análisis latido a latido de 3.7 millones de estímulos de los registros Holter, nos confirma que cada perdida de captura ha sido detectada y seguida de un estímulo de seguridad efectivo. Conclusion: La función Autocaptura posee la habilidad de cambiar automaticamente el potencial de salida en consonancia con el umbral de estimulación, y por ello nos permite olrecer una terapia de estimulacion segura y liable con bajo consumo energético

La función autocaptura en marcapasos VVIR. Experiência del estudio multicéntrico

La función de Autocaptura verifica la captura latido a latido. La búsqueda automática del umbral de estimulación, ajusta el potencial de salida 0.3 V. por encima del valor medido. Ante la pérdida de captura de un estímulo, el sistema emite un segundo impulso de 4.5 V. a los 65 mseg. para conseguir captura, evitando con ello pausas del ritmo cardíaco. La función de Autocaptura nos ofrece por ello una estimulación segura de bajo consumo. El sistema ha sido incorporado a un marcapasos VVI R de 12.8 gr. de peso y 5.9 cm3 de volumen, de estimulación unipolar y detección bipolar. Presentamos la experiencia de un estudio multicéntrico que incluye 113 pacientes, 57 hombres y 56 mujeres. La edad media fue de 76 anos (45 - 93). La indicación ECG fue de fibrilación auricular con pobre respuesta ventricular en el 84% de los casos y de bloqueo A-V en el restante 16%. Se han revisado los protocolos de 112 controles de alta hospitalaria, 107 de 30 dias, 94 de 3 meses y 49 de 6 meses. En todos los casos se ha practicado un registro Holter de 24 horas al mes de la implantacion. EI valor medio de umbral de estimulación en el momenta de la implantación fue de 0.6 V., a 1 mes de 1.3 V., a los 3 meses de 1.3 V. Y a los 6 meses de 1.2 V. Los valores medios medidos de onda R intrínseca / onda R evocada fueron en la implantación de 14.7/10.2 mV., al mes 16.8/ 10.0 mV., a los 3 meses 16.5/10.2 mV. ya los 6 meses 17.5/10.2 mV. Se ha calculado un consumo medio de 3.9 ± 0.8 mAo con 10 que la longevidad del generador resulta de entre 7 y 8 anos. El análisis latido a latido de 3.7 millones de estímulos de los registros Holter, nos confirma que cada perdida de captura ha sido detectada y seguida de un estímulo de seguridad efectivo. Conclusion: La función Autocaptura posee la habilidad de cambiar automaticamente el potencial de salida en consonancia con el umbral de estimulación, y por ello nos permite olrecer una terapia de estimulacion segura y liable con bajo consumo energético

Processing of UHTCMCs

There is an increasing demand for advanced materials with temperature capability in highly corrosive environments for aerospace. Rocket nozzles of solid/hybrid rocket motors must survive harsh thermochemical and mechanical environments produced by high performance solid propellants (2700-3500°C). Thermal protection systems (TPS) for space vehicles flying at Mach 7 must withstand projected service temperatures up to 2500°C associated to convective heat fluxes up to 15 MWm-2 and intense mechanical vibrations at launch and re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere. The combination of extremely hot temperatures, chemically aggressive environments and rapid heating/cooling is beyond the capabilities of current materials. As indicated by the previous talk, the main purpose of C3HARME is to design, develop, manufacture, test and validate a new class of out-performing, reliable, cost-effective and scalable Ultra High Temperature Ceramic Matrix Composites (UHTCMCs) based on C fibre preforms enriched with ultra-high temperature ceramics (UHTCs) and capable of in-situ repairing damage induced during operation in severe aerospace environments. Two main applications are envisaged: near-ZERO erosion rocket nozzles that must maintain dimensional stability during firing in combustion chambers, and near-ZERO ablation thermal protection systems enabling hypersonic space vehicles to maintain flight performance. This talk aims at providing an indication of progress to date within Work Package 2, which is focused on the processing of Cf-ZrB2 UHTCMCs. Four primary routes are being investigated, these include: green forming of fibre reinforced UHT ceramics followed by spark plasma sintering; radio-frequency enhanced chemical vapour infiltration of UHTCMCs; reactive melt infiltration of UHTCMCs and polymer infiltration and pyrolysis of UHTCMCs. All four approaches will be outlined and conclusions drawn, plus there will be a brief mention of ongoing work into atomistic modelling of processes at materials interfaces and nanoparticle dispersion with a view to imparting self-healing properties. Acknowledgements: This work has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 “Research and innovation programme” under grant agreement N°685594 (C3HARME