Estimating the reproduction number of Ebola virus (EBOV) during the 2014 outbreak in West Africa

The 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa is the largest outbreak of the genus Ebolavirus to date. To better understand the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to know the number of secondary cases generated by an infected index case in the absence and presence of control measures, i.e., the basic and effective reproduction number. In this study, I describe the EBOV epidemic using an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model and fit the model to the most recent reported data of infected cases and deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The maximum likelihood estimates of the basic reproduction number are 1.51 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50-1.52) for Guinea, 2.53 (95% CI: 2.41-2.67) for Sierra Leone and 1.59 (95% CI: 1.57-1.60) for Liberia. The model indicates that in Guinea and Sierra Leone the effective reproduction number might have dropped to around unity by the end of May and July 2014, respectively. In Liberia, however, the model estimates no decline in the effective reproduction number by end-August 2014. This suggests that control efforts in Liberia need to be improved substantially in order to stop the current outbreak.Comment: Published version, PLOS Currents Outbreaks. 2014 Sep

Oscillatory secular modes: The thermal micropulses

Stars in the narrow mass range of about 2.5 and 3.5 solar masses can develop a thermally unstable He-burning shell during its ignition phase. We study, from the point of view secular stability theory, these so called thermal micropulses and we investigate their properties; the thermal pulses constitute a convenient conceptual laboratory to look thoroughly into the physical properties of a helium-burning shell during the whole thermally pulsing episode. Linear stability analyses were performed on a large number of 3 solar-mass star models at around the end of their core helium-burning and the beginning of the double-shell burning phase. The stellar models were not assumed to be in thermal equilibrium. The thermal mircopulses, and we conjecture all other thermal pulse episodes encountered by shell-burning stars, can be understood as the nonlinear finite-amplitude realization of an oscillatory secular instability that prevails during the whole thermal pulsing episode. Hence, the cyclic nature of the thermal pulses can be traced back to a linear instability concept.Comment: To be published - essentially footnote-free - in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Grids of white dwarf evolutionary models with masses from M= 0.1 to 1.2 Ms

We present detailed evolutionary calculations for carbon - oxygen - and helium - core white dwarf (WD) models with masses ranging from M= 0.1 to M= 1.2 solar masses and for metallicities Z= 0.001 and Z= 0. The sequences cover a wide range of hydrogen envelopes as well. We employed a detailed WD evolutionary code. In particular, the energy transport by convectcion is treated within the formalism of the full spectrum turbulence theory. The set of models presented here is very detailed and should be valuable for the interpretation of the observational data on low - mass WDs recently discovered in numerous binary configurations and also for the general problem of determining the theoretical luminosity function for WDs. In this context, we compare our cooling sequences with the observed WD luminosity function recently improved by Leggett, Ruiz and Bergeron (1998) and we obtain an age for the Galactic disc of approximately 8 Gyr. Finally, we applied the results of this paper to derive stellar masses of a sample of low - mass white dwarfs.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures; accepted for publication in MNRAS; replaced with minor corrections to tex

On the formation of hot DQ white dwarfs

We present the first full evolutionary calculations aimed at exploring the origin of hot DQ white dwarfs. These calculations consistently cover the whole evolution from the born-again stage to the white dwarf cooling track. Our calculations provide strong support to the diffusive/convective-mixing picture for the formation of hot DQs. We find that the hot DQ stage is a short-lived stage and that the range of effective temperatures where hot DQ stars are found can be accounted for by different masses of residual helium and/or different initial stellar masses. In the frame of this scenario, a correlation between the effective temperature and the surface carbon abundance in DQs should be expected, with the largest carbon abundances expected in the hottest DQs. From our calculations, we suggest that most of the hot DQs could be the cooler descendants of some PG1159 stars characterized by He-rich envelopes markedly smaller than those predicted by the standard theory of stellar evolution. At least for one hot DQ, the high-gravity white dwarf SDSS J142625.70+575218.4, an evolutionary link between this star and the massive PG1159 star H1504+65 is plausible.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures. To be published in The Astrophysical Journal Letter

Fingering Convection in Red Giants Revisited

Fingering (thermohaline) convection has been invoked for several years as a possible extra-mixing which could occur in Red Giant stars due to the modification of the chemical composition induced by nuclear reactions in the hydrogen burning zone. Recent studies show however that this mixing is not sufficient to account for the needed surface abundances. A new prescription for fingering convection, based on 3D numerical simulations has recently been proposed (BGS). The resulting mixing coefficient is larger than the ones previously given in the literature. We compute models using this new coefficient and compare them to previous studies. We use the LPCODE stellar evolution code with the GNA generalized version of the mixing length theory to compute Red Giant models and we introduce fingering convection using the BGS prescription. The results show that, although the fingering zone now reaches the outer dynamical convective zone, the efficiency of the mixing is not enough to account for the observations. The fingering mixing coefficient should be increased by two orders of magnitude for the needed surface abundances to be reached. We confirm that fingering convection cannot be the mixing process needed to account for surface abundances in RGB stars.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysic

Lyman-alpha wing absorption in cool white dwarf stars

Kowalski & Saumon (2006) identified the missing absorption mechanism in the observed spectra of cool white dwarf stars as the Ly-alpha red wing formed by the collisions between atomic and molecular hydrogen and successfully explained entire spectra of many cool DA-type white dwarfs. Owing to the important astrophysical implications of this issue, we present here an independent assessment of the process. For this purpose, we compute free-free quasi-molecular absorption in Lyman-alpha due to collisions with H and H2 within the one-perturber, quasi-static approximation. Line cross-sections are obtained using theoretical molecular potentials to describe the interaction between the radiating atom and the perturber. The variation of the electric-dipole transition moment with the interparticle distance is also considered. Six and two allowed electric dipole transitions due to H-H and H-H2 collisions, respectively, are taken into account. The new theoretical Lyman-alpha line profiles are then incorporated in our stellar atmosphere program for the computation of synthetic spectra and colours of DA-type white dwarfs. Illustrative model atmospheres and spectral energy distributions are computed, which show that Ly-alpha broadening by atoms and molecules has a significant effect on the white dwarf atmosphere models. The inclusion of this collision-induced opacity significantly reddens spectral energy distributions and affects the broadband colour indices for model atmospheres with Teff<5000 K. These results confirm those previously obtained by Kowalski & Saumon (2006). Our study points out the need for reliable evaluations of H3 potential energy surfaces covering a large region of nuclear configurations, in order to obtain a better description of H-H2 collisions and a more accurate evaluation of their influence on the spectrum of cool white dwarfs.Comment: 11 pages, 12 figures, 1 table, to be published in MNRA

Asteroseismology of the Kepler V777 Her variable white dwarf with fully evolutionary models

DBV stars are pulsating white dwarfs with atmospheres rich in He. Asteroseismology of DBV stars can provide valuable clues about the origin, structure and evolution of hydrogen-deficient white dwarfs, and may allow to study neutrino and axion physics. Recently, a new DBV star, KIC 8626021, has been discovered in the field of the \emph{Kepler} spacecraft. It is expected that further monitoring of this star in the next years will enable astronomers to determine its detailed asteroseismic profile. We perform an asteroseismological analysis of KIC 8626021 on the basis of fully evolutionary DB white-dwarf models. We employ a complete set of evolutionary DB white-dwarf structures covering a wide range of effective temperatures and stellar masses. They have been obtained on the basis of a complete treatment of the evolutionary history of progenitors stars. We compute g-mode adiabatic pulsation periods for this set of models and compare them with the pulsation properties exhibited by KIC 8626021. On the basis of the mean period spacing of the star, we found that the stellar mass should be substantially larger than spectroscopy indicates. From period-to-period fits we found an asteroseismological model characterized by an effective temperature much higher than the spectroscopic estimate. In agreement with a recent asteroseismological analysis of this star by other authors, we conclude that KIC 8626021 is located near the blue edge of the DBV instability strip, contrarily to spectroscopic predictions. We also conclude that the mass of KIC 8626021 should be substantially larger than thought.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures, 3 tables. To be published in Astronomy and Astrophysic