Topological data analysis and machine learning for recognizing atmospheric river patterns in large climate datasets

Identifying weather patterns that frequently lead to extreme weather events is a crucial first step in understanding how they may vary under different climate change scenarios. Here, we propose an automated method for recognizing atmospheric rivers (ARs) in climate data using topological data analysis and machine learning. The method provides useful information about topological features (shape characteristics) and statistics of ARs. We illustrate this method by applying it to outputs of version 5.1 of the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 (CAM5.1) and the reanalysis product of the second Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2). An advantage of the proposed method is that it is threshold-free – there is no need to determine any threshold criteria for the detection method – when the spatial resolution of the climate model changes. Hence, this method may be useful in evaluating model biases in calculating AR statistics. Further, the method can be applied to different climate scenarios without tuning since it does not rely on threshold conditions. We show that the method is suitable for rapidly analyzing large amounts of climate model and reanalysis output data.</p

Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP): project goals and experimental design

The Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is an international collaborative effort to understand and quantify the uncertainties in atmospheric river (AR) science based on detection algorithm alone. Currently, there are many AR identification and tracking algorithms in the literature with a wide range of techniques and conclusions. ARTMIP strives to provide the community with information on different methodologies and provide guidance on the most appropriate algorithm for a given science question or region of interest. All ARTMIP participants will implement their detection algorithms on a specified common dataset for a defined period of time. The project is divided into two phases: Tier 1 will utilize the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis from January 1980 to June 2017 and will be used as a baseline for all subsequent comparisons. Participation in Tier 1 is required. Tier 2 will be optional and include sensitivity studies designed around specific science questions, such as reanalysis uncertainty and climate change. High-resolution reanalysis and/or model output will be used wherever possible. Proposed metrics include AR frequency, duration, intensity, and precipitation attributable to ARs. Here, we present the ARTMIP experimental design, timeline, project requirements, and a brief description of the variety of methodologies in the current literature. We also present results from our 1-month proof-of-concept trial run designed to illustrate the utility and feasibility of the ARTMIP project

Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP): project goals and experimental design

The Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is an international collaborative effort to understand and quantify the uncertainties in atmospheric river (AR) science based on detection algorithm alone. Currently, there are many AR identification and tracking algorithms in the literature with a wide range of techniques and conclusions. ARTMIP strives to provide the community with information on different methodologies and provide guidance on the most appropriate algorithm for a given science question or region of interest. All ARTMIP participants will implement their detection algorithms on a specified common dataset for a defined period of time. The project is divided into two phases: Tier 1 will utilize the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis from January 1980 to June 2017 and will be used as a baseline for all subsequent comparisons. Participation in Tier 1 is required. Tier 2 will be optional and include sensitivity studies designed around specific science questions, such as reanalysis uncertainty and climate change. High-resolution reanalysis and/or model output will be used wherever possible. Proposed metrics include AR frequency, duration, intensity, and precipitation attributable to ARs. Here, we present the ARTMIP experimental design, timeline, project requirements, and a brief description of the variety of methodologies in the current literature. We also present results from our 1-month proof-of-concept trial run designed to illustrate the utility and feasibility of the ARTMIP project

Three-page encoding and complexity theory for spatial graphs

A finitely presented semigroup RSGn is constructed for n ≥ 2. The centre of RSGn encodes uniquely up to rigid ambient isotopy in 3-space all nonoriented spatial graphs with vertices of degree ≤ n. This encoding is obtained by using three-page embeddings of graphs into the three-page book T × I, where T is the cone on three points, and I is the unit segment. The notion of the three-page complexity for spatial graphs is introduced via three-page embeddings. This complexity satisfies the properties of finiteness and additivity under natural operations