Weak evidence of bright light effects on human LH and FSH

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Most mammals are seasonal breeders whose gonads grow to anticipate reproduction in the spring and summer. As day length increases, secretion increases for two gonadotropins, luteinizing hormone (LH) and follicle stimulating hormone (FSH). This response is largely controlled by light. Light effects on gonadotropins are mediated through effects on the suprachiasmatic nucleus and responses of the circadian system. There is some evidence that seasonal breeding in humans is regulated by similar mechanisms, and that light stimulates LH secretion, but primate responses seem complex.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To gain further information on effects of bright light on LH and FSH secretion in humans, we analyzed urine samples collected in three experiments conducted for other goals. First, volunteers ages 18-30 years and 60-75 commenced an ultra-short 90-min sleep-wake cycle, during which they were exposed to 3000 lux light for 3 hours at balanced times of day, repeated for 3 days. Urine samples were assayed to explore any LH phase response curve. Second, depressed participants 60-79 years of age were treated with bright light or dim placebo light for 28 days, with measurements of urinary LH and FSH before and after treatment. Third, women of ages 20-45 years with premenstrual dysphoric disorder (PMDD) were treated to one 3-hour exposure of morning light, measuring LH and FSH in urine before and after the treatments.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Two of the three studies showed significant increases in LH after light treatment, and FSH also tended to increase, but there were no significant contrasts with parallel placebo treatments and no significant time-of-day treatment effects.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These results gave some support for the hypothesis that bright light may augment LH secretion. Longer-duration studies may be needed to clarify the effects of light on human LH and FSH.</p

A Functional Naturalism

I provide two arguments against value-free naturalism. Both are based on considerations concerning biological teleology. Value-free naturalism is the thesis that both (1) everything is, at least in principle, under the purview of the sciences and (2) all scientific facts are purely non-evaluative. First, I advance a counterexample to any analysis on which natural selection is necessary to biological teleology. This should concern the value-free naturalist, since most value-free analyses of biological teleology appeal to natural selection. My counterexample is unique in that it is likely to actually occur. It concerns the creation of synthetic life. Recent developments in synthetic biology suggest scientists will eventually be able to develop synthetic life. Such life, however, would not have any of its traits naturally selected for. Second, I develop a simple argument that biological teleology is a scientific but value-laden notion. Consequently, value-free naturalism is false. I end with some concluding remarks on the implications for naturalism, the thesis that (1). Naturalism may be salvaged only if we reject (2). (2) is a dogma that unnecessarily constrains our conception of the sciences. Only a naturalism that recognizes value-laden notions as scientifically respectable can be true. Such a naturalism is a functional naturalism

Mortality Risk of Hypnotics: Strengths and Limits of Evidence

Sleeping pills, more formally defined as hypnotics, are sedatives used to induce and maintain sleep. In a review of publications for the past 30 years, descriptive epidemiologic studies were identified that examined the mortality risk of hypnotics and related sedative-anxiolytics. Of the 34 studies estimating risk ratios, odds ratios, or hazard ratios, excess mortality associated with hypnotics was significant (p &lt; 0.05) in 24 studies including all 14 of the largest, contrasted with no studies at all suggesting that hypnotics ever prolong life. The studies had many limitations: possibly tending to overestimate risk, such as possible confounding by indication with other risk factors; confusing hypnotics with drugs having other indications; possible genetic confounders; and too much heterogeneity of studies for meta-analyses. There were balancing limitations possibly tending towards underestimates of risk such as limited power, excessive follow-up intervals with possible follow-up mixing of participants taking hypnotics with controls, missing dosage data for most studies, and over-adjustment of confounders. Epidemiologic association in itself is not adequate proof of causality, but there is proof that hypnotics cause death in overdoses; there is thorough understanding of how hypnotics euthanize animals and execute humans; and there is proof that hypnotics cause potentially lethal morbidities such as depression, infection, poor driving, suppressed respiration, and possibly cancer. Combining these proofs with consistent evidence of association, the great weight of evidence is that hypnotics cause huge risks of decreasing a patient's duration of survival

AGI and the Knight-Darwin Law: why idealized AGI reproduction requires collaboration

Can an AGI create a more intelligent AGI? Under idealized assumptions, for a certain theoretical type of intelligence, our answer is: “Not without outside help”. This is a paper on the mathematical structure of AGI populations when parent AGIs create child AGIs. We argue that such populations satisfy a certain biological law. Motivated by observations of sexual reproduction in seemingly-asexual species, the Knight-Darwin Law states that it is impossible for one organism to asexually produce another, which asexually produces another, and so on forever: that any sequence of organisms (each one a child of the previous) must contain occasional multi-parent organisms, or must terminate. By proving that a certain measure (arguably an intelligence measure) decreases when an idealized parent AGI single-handedly creates a child AGI, we argue that a similar Law holds for AGIs

Probabilistic Algorithmic Knowledge

The framework of algorithmic knowledge assumes that agents use deterministic knowledge algorithms to compute the facts they explicitly know. We extend the framework to allow for randomized knowledge algorithms. We then characterize the information provided by a randomized knowledge algorithm when its answers have some probability of being incorrect. We formalize this information in terms of evidence; a randomized knowledge algorithm returning ``Yes'' to a query about a fact \phi provides evidence for \phi being true. Finally, we discuss the extent to which this evidence can be used as a basis for decisions.Comment: 26 pages. A preliminary version appeared in Proc. 9th Conference on Theoretical Aspects of Rationality and Knowledge (TARK'03

Topos Theory and Consistent Histories: The Internal Logic of the Set of all Consistent Sets

A major problem in the consistent-histories approach to quantum theory is contending with the potentially large number of consistent sets of history propositions. One possibility is to find a scheme in which a unique set is selected in some way. However, in this paper we consider the alternative approach in which all consistent sets are kept, leading to a type of `many world-views' picture of the quantum theory. It is shown that a natural way of handling this situation is to employ the theory of varying sets (presheafs) on the space \B of all Boolean subalgebras of the orthoalgebra \UP of history propositions. This approach automatically includes the feature whereby probabilistic predictions are meaningful only in the context of a consistent set of history propositions. More strikingly, it leads to a picture in which the `truth values', or `semantic values' of such contextual predictions are not just two-valued (\ie true and false) but instead lie in a larger logical algebra---a Heyting algebra---whose structure is determined by the space \B of Boolean subalgebras of \UP.Comment: 28 pages, LaTe

Including PrEP for key populations in combination HIV prevention: a mathematical modelling analysis of Nairobi as a case-study

Background: The role of PrEP in combination HIV prevention remains uncertain. We aimed to identify an optimal portfolio of interventions to reduce HIV incidence for a given budget, and to identify the circumstances in which PrEP could be used in Nairobi, Kenya. Methods: A mathematical model was developed to represent HIV transmission among specific key populations (female sex workers (FSW), male sex workers (MSW), and men who have sex with men (MSM)) and among the wider population of Nairobi. The scale-up of existing interventions (condom promotion, anti-retroviral therapy (ART) and male circumcision) for key populations and the wider population as have occurred in Nairobi is represented. The model includes a detailed representation of a Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) intervention and is calibrated to prevalence and incidence estimates specific to key populations and the wider population. Findings: In the context of a declining epidemic overall but with a large sub-epidemic among MSM and MSW, an optimal prevention portfolio for Nairobi should focus on condom promotion for MSW and MSM in particular, followed by improved ART retention, earlier ART, and male circumcision as the budget allows. PrEP for MSW could enter an optimal portfolio at similar levels of spending to when earlier ART is included, however PrEP for MSM and FSW would be included only at much higher budgets. If PrEP for MSW cost as much $500, average annual spending on the interventions modelled would need to be less than$3·27 million for PrEP for MSW to be excluded from an optimal portfolio. Estimated costs per infection averted when providing PrEP to all FSW regardless of their risk of infection, and to high risk FSW only, are $65,160 (95$43,520 - $90,250) and$10,920 (95% credible interval: $4,700 -$51,560) respectively. Interpretation: PrEP could be a useful contribution to combination prevention, especially for underserved key populations in Nairobi. An ongoing demonstration project will provide important information regarding practical aspects of implementing PrEP for key populations in this setting

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an educational intervention for practice teams to deliver problem focused therapy for insomnia: rationale and design of a pilot cluster randomised trial

Background: Sleep problems are common, affecting over a third of adults in the United Kingdom and leading to reduced productivity and impaired health-related quality of life. Many of those whose lives are affected seek medical help from primary care. Drug treatment is ineffective long term. Psychological methods for managing sleep problems, including cognitive behavioural therapy for insomnia (CBTi) have been shown to be effective and cost effective but have not been widely implemented or evaluated in a general practice setting where they are most likely to be needed and most appropriately delivered. This paper outlines the protocol for a pilot study designed to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an educational intervention for general practitioners, primary care nurses and other members of the primary care team to deliver problem focused therapy to adult patients presenting with sleep problems due to lifestyle causes, pain or mild to moderate depression or anxiety. Methods and design: This will be a pilot cluster randomised controlled trial of a complex intervention. General practices will be randomised to an educational intervention for problem focused therapy which includes a consultation approach comprising careful assessment (using assessment of secondary causes, sleep diaries and severity) and use of modified CBTi for insomnia in the consultation compared with usual care (general advice on sleep hygiene and pharmacotherapy with hypnotic drugs). Clinicians randomised to the intervention will receive an educational intervention (2 × 2 hours) to implement a complex intervention of problem focused therapy. Clinicians randomised to the control group will receive reinforcement of usual care with sleep hygiene advice. Outcomes will be assessed via self-completion questionnaires and telephone interviews of patients and staff as well as clinical records for interventions and prescribing. Discussion: Previous studies in adults have shown that psychological treatments for insomnia administered by specialist nurses to groups of patients can be effective within a primary care setting. This will be a pilot study to determine whether an educational intervention aimed at primary care teams to deliver problem focused therapy for insomnia can improve sleep management and outcomes for individual adult patients presenting to general practice. The study will also test procedures and collect information in preparation for a larger definitive cluster-randomised trial. The study is funded by The Health Foundation