BEAMS: separating the wheat from the chaff in supernova analysis

We introduce Bayesian Estimation Applied to Multiple Species (BEAMS), an algorithm designed to deal with parameter estimation when using contaminated data. We present the algorithm and demonstrate how it works with the help of a Gaussian simulation. We then apply it to supernova data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), showing how the resulting confidence contours of the cosmological parameters shrink significantly.Comment: 23 pages, 9 figures. Chapter 4 in "Astrostatistical Challenges for the New Astronomy" (Joseph M. Hilbe, ed., Springer, New York, forthcoming in 2012), the inaugural volume for the Springer Series in Astrostatistic

Darbepoetin alfa given every 1 or 2 weeks alleviates anaemia associated with cancer chemotherapy.

In part A of this study, patients were randomised to cohorts receiving darbepoetin alfa at doses of 0.5 to 8.0 m.c.g x kg(-1) x wk(-1) or to a control group receiving epoetin alfa at an initial dose of 150 U x kg(-1) three times weekly. In part B, the cohorts were darbepoetin alfa 3.0 to 9.0 m.c.g x kg(-1) every 2 weeks or epoetin alfa, initial dose 40 000 U x wk(-1). Safety was assessed by adverse events, changes in blood pressure, and formation of antibodies to darbepoetin alfa. Efficacy was assessed by several haematologic endpoints, including change in haemoglobin from baseline. The adverse event profile of darbepoetin alfa was similar to that of epoetin alfa. No relationship between the rapidity of haemoglobin response and any adverse event was observed. No antibodies to darbepoetin alfa were detected. Higher doses of darbepoetin alfa increased the proportion of patients with a haemoglobin response and decreased the median time to response. The overall dose of darbepoetin alfa required to produce a mean increase in haemoglobin does not increase when the dosing interval is increased from 1 to 2 weeks. Therapy with darbepoetin alfa is safe and effective in producing a dose-related increase in haemoglobin levels in patients with cancer receiving chemotherapy

Intraspecific Combinations of Flower and Leaf Volatiles Act Together in Attracting Hawkmoth Pollinators

Insects pinpoint mates, food and oviposition sites by olfactory cues. Recognizing and localizing a suitable target by olfaction is demanding. Odor sources emit characteristic blends of compounds that have to be identified against an environmentally derived olfactory background. This background, however, does not necessarily disturb the localization of a source. Rather, the contrary. Sex pheromones become more attractive to male moths when being presented against a relevant plant background. Here we asked whether such olfactory coaction also characterizes foraging cues. The tobacco hornworm Manduca sexta feeds on nectar from wild tobacco Nicotiana attenuata and sacred datura Datura wrightii flowers. We tested how leaf-derived volatile blends as a background affect the moths' approach to flower blends. We found coaction when a flower blend was presented against a conspecific leaf volatile background but not when the blend was presented against volatiles emitted by the other host plant or by a non-host plant. Hence, our results reveal a species-specific coaction between flower blend and leaf volatile background. The ability to integrate information from different odor sources on one plant might provide the moth with a fine-grained analysis of food site quality

Predicting suicides after outpatient mental health visits in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS).

The 2013 US Veterans Administration/Department of Defense Clinical Practice Guidelines (VA/DoD CPG) require comprehensive suicide risk assessments for VA/DoD patients with mental disorders but provide minimal guidance on how to carry out these assessments. Given that clinician-based assessments are not known to be strong predictors of suicide, we investigated whether a precision medicine model using administrative data after outpatient mental health specialty visits could be developed to predict suicides among outpatients. We focused on male nondeployed Regular US Army soldiers because they account for the vast majority of such suicides. Four machine learning classifiers (naive Bayes, random forests, support vector regression and elastic net penalized regression) were explored. Of the Army suicides in 2004-2009, 41.5% occurred among 12.0% of soldiers seen as outpatient by mental health specialists, with risk especially high within 26 weeks of visits. An elastic net classifier with 10-14 predictors optimized sensitivity (45.6% of suicide deaths occurring after the 15% of visits with highest predicted risk). Good model stability was found for a model using 2004-2007 data to predict 2008-2009 suicides, although stability decreased in a model using 2008-2009 data to predict 2010-2012 suicides. The 5% of visits with highest risk included only 0.1% of soldiers (1047.1 suicides/100 000 person-years in the 5 weeks after the visit). This is a high enough concentration of risk to have implications for targeting preventive interventions. An even better model might be developed in the future by including the enriched information on clinician-evaluated suicide risk mandated by the VA/DoD CPG to be recorded

Investigation of fiber/matrix adhesion: test speed and specimen shape effects in the cylinder test

The cylinder test, developed from the microdroplet test, was adapted to assess the interfacial adhesion strength between fiber and matrix. The sensitivity of cylinder test to pull-out speed and specimen geometry was measured. It was established that the effect of test speed can be described as a superposition of two opposite, simultaneous effects which have been modeled mathematically by fitting two parameter Weibull curves on the measured datas. Effects of the cylinder size and its geometrical relation on the measured strength values have been analyzed by finite element method. It was concluded that the geometry has a direct influence on the stress formation. Based on the results achieved, recommendations were given on how to perform the novel single fiber cylinder test

Contrasting the Percutaneous Nerve Evaluation Versus Staged Implantation in Sacral Neuromodulation

Sacral neuromodulation is increasingly used for the treatment of voiding dysfunction, pelvic pain syndromes, and gastrointestinal disorders. While increased use of this technology has led to a greater understanding of its potential as well as its limitations, difficulty persists in identifying the patients that will benefit most. Either of two trial stimulation techniques is performed before placement of a permanent neuromodulator: the monopolar percutaneous nerve evaluation and the tined quadripolar staged trial. The preponderance of recent literature asserts the superior sensitivity of the staged trial over percutaneous nerve evaluation. However, the techniques offer disparate advantages, and other issues, such as cost-effectiveness, remain largely unexplored. The role of sacral neuromodulation will continue to expand as physicians and patients become increasingly aware of its therapeutic potential. Widespread adoption of this clinically superior technique will most rapidly help the greatest number of patients

Maternal psychological distress in primary care and association with child behavioural outcomes at age three

Observational studies indicate children whose mothers have poor mental health are at increased risk of socio-emotional behavioural difficulties, but it is unknown whether these outcomes vary by the mothers’ mental health recognition and treatment status. To examine this question, we analysed linked longitudinal primary care and research data from 1078 women enrolled in the Born in Bradford cohort. A latent class analysis of treatment status and self-reported distress broadly categorised women as (a) not having a common mental disorder (CMD) that persisted through pregnancy and the first 2 years after delivery (N = 756, 70.1 %), (b) treated for CMD (N = 67, 6.2 %), or (c) untreated (N = 255, 23.7 %). Compared to children of mothers without CMD, 3-year-old children with mothers classified as having untreated CMD had higher standardised factor scores on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (d = 0.32), as did children with mothers classified as having treated CMD (d = 0.27). Results were only slightly attenuated in adjusted analyses. Children of mothers with CMD may be at risk for socio-emotional and behavioural difficulties. The development of effective treatments for CMD needs to be balanced by greater attempts to identify and treat women. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00787-015-0777-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Tips and Traps: Lessons From Codesigning a Clinician E-Monitoring Tool for Computerized Cognitive Behavioral Therapy

Background: Computerized cognitive behavioral therapy (cCBT) is an acceptable and promising treatment modality for adolescents with mild-to-moderate depression. Many cCBT programs are standalone packages with no way for clinicians to monitor progress or outcomes. We sought to develop an electronic monitoring (e-monitoring) tool in consultation with clinicians and adolescents to allow clinicians to monitor mood, risk, and treatment adherence of adolescents completing a cCBT program called SPARX (Smart, Positive, Active, Realistic, X-factor thoughts). Objective: The objectives of our study were as follows: (1) assess clinicians’ and adolescents’ views on using an e-monitoring tool and to use this information to help shape the development of the tool and (2) assess clinician experiences with a fully developed version of the tool that was implemented in their clinical service. Methods: A descriptive qualitative study using semi-structured focus groups was conducted in New Zealand. In total, 7 focus groups included clinicians (n=50) who worked in primary care, and 3 separate groups included adolescents (n=29). Clinicians were general practitioners (GPs), school guidance counselors, clinical psychologists, youth workers, and nurses. Adolescents were recruited from health services and a high school. Focus groups were run to enable feedback at 3 phases that corresponded to the consultation, development, and post-implementation stages. Thematic analysis was applied to transcribed responses. Results: Focus groups during the consultation and development phases revealed the need for a simple e-monitoring registration process with guides for end users. Common concerns were raised in relation to clinical burden, monitoring risk (and effects on the therapeutic relationship), alongside confidentiality or privacy and technical considerations. Adolescents did not want to use their social media login credentials for e-monitoring, as they valued their privacy. However, adolescents did want information on seeking help, and personalized monitoring and communication arrangements. Post-implementation, clinicians who had used the tool in practice revealed no adverse impact on the therapeutic relationship, and adolescents were not concerned about being e-monitored. Clinicians did need additional time to monitor adolescents, and the e-monitoring tool was used in a different way than was originally anticipated. Also, it was suggested that the registration process could be further streamlined and integrated with existing clinical data management systems, and the use of clinician alerts could be expanded beyond the scope of simply flagging adolescents of concern. Conclusions: An e-monitoring tool was developed in consultation with clinicians and adolescents. However, the study revealed the complexity of implementing the tool in clinical practice. Of salience were privacy, parallel monitoring systems, integration with existing electronic medical record systems, customization of the e-monitor, and pre-agreed monitoring arrangements between clinicians and adolescents