Uncovering long term relationships between oil prices and the economy: A time-varying cointegration analysis

Establishing the relation between oil price movements and macroeconomic performance is of great importance for firms and policymakers, alike. Prior studies established this relation using the assumption that the long-run relation is intertemporally constant. However, there is much recent evidence demonstrating that this assumption may not hold in practice. To address this issue and go beyond the restrictive time-invariant environment, we employ the use of the time-varying cointegration framework of Bierens and Martins (2010). We present evidence of the long-run oil-economy relation evolving over the 1974–2015 period, with major events such as the Gulf War and the financialisation of commodity markets proving to be driving forces across the U.S., European and G7 economies considered

Precise Asymptotics for a Random Walker's Maximum

We consider a discrete time random walk in one dimension. At each time step the walker jumps by a random distance, independent from step to step, drawn from an arbitrary symmetric density function. We show that the expected positive maximum E[M_n] of the walk up to n steps behaves asymptotically for large n as, E[M_n]/\sigma=\sqrt{2n/\pi}+ \gamma +O(n^{-1/2}), where \sigma^2 is the variance of the step lengths. While the leading \sqrt{n} behavior is universal and easy to derive, the leading correction term turns out to be a nontrivial constant \gamma. For the special case of uniform distribution over [-1,1], Coffmann et. al. recently computed \gamma=-0.516068...by exactly enumerating a lengthy double series. Here we present a closed exact formula for \gamma valid for arbitrary symmetric distributions. We also demonstrate how \gamma appears in the thermodynamic limit as the leading behavior of the difference variable E[M_n]-E[|x_n|] where x_n is the position of the walker after n steps. An application of these results to the equilibrium thermodynamics of a Rouse polymer chain is pointed out. We also generalize our results to L\'evy walks.Comment: new references added, typos corrected, published versio

Area distribution and the average shape of a L\'evy bridge

We consider a one dimensional L\'evy bridge x_B of length n and index 0 < \alpha < 2, i.e. a L\'evy random walk constrained to start and end at the origin after n time steps, x_B(0) = x_B(n)=0. We compute the distribution P_B(A,n) of the area A = \sum_{m=1}^n x_B(m) under such a L\'evy bridge and show that, for large n, it has the scaling form P_B(A,n) \sim n^{-1-1/\alpha} F_\alpha(A/n^{1+1/\alpha}), with the asymptotic behavior F_\alpha(Y) \sim Y^{-2(1+\alpha)} for large Y. For \alpha=1, we obtain an explicit expression of F_1(Y) in terms of elementary functions. We also compute the average profile < \tilde x_B (m) > at time m of a L\'evy bridge with fixed area A. For large n and large m and A, one finds the scaling form = n^{1/\alpha} H_\alpha({m}/{n},{A}/{n^{1+1/\alpha}}), where at variance with Brownian bridge, H_\alpha(X,Y) is a non trivial function of the rescaled time m/n and rescaled area Y = A/n^{1+1/\alpha}. Our analytical results are verified by numerical simulations.Comment: 21 pages, 4 Figure

Students\u27 Perceptions of Part-time and Tenured/Tenure-Track Faculty: Accessibility, Mentoring, and Extra-Class Communication

This article examines students\u27 perceptions of teacher accessibility and mentoring ability, as well as students\u27 likelihood of pursuing extra-class communication (ECC) with their instructors, as related to teacher employment status. The article begins with an overview of differences between part-time and tenured/tenure-track faculty members, with particular attention to how these differences may impact students\u27 perceptions of instructors\u27 accessibility. It then addresses the mentoring relationship between students and faculty, and discuss how faculty employment status may affect students\u27 beliefs that they will receive useful mentoring from their instructors. Finally, the article introduces the construct of ECC and explores how faculty employment status of instructors may affect students\u27 ECC decisions

Effectiveness of physical activity interventions for overweight and obesity during pregnancy: a systematic review of the content of behaviour change interventions

Background Behaviour change techniques (BCTs) employed within PA intervention for pregnant women with a healthy body mass index (BMI) have been previously identified, however, these BCTS may differ for other weight profiles during pregnancy. The aim of this current review was to identify and summarise the evidence for effectiveness of PA interventions on PA levels for pregnant women with overweight and obesity, with an emphasis on the BCTs employed. Methods A systematic review and meta-analysis of PA intervention studies using the PRISMA statement was conducted. Searches were conducted of eight databases in January 2019. Strict inclusion/exclusion criteria were employed. The validity of each included study was assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration’s tool for assessing risk of bias. The primary outcome measure was change in PA levels, subjectively or objectively measured, with physical fitness as a secondary outcome. All intervention descriptions were double coded by two authors using Michie’s et al’s BCT taxonomy V1. Meta-analyses using random effect models assessed the intervention effects on PA. Other PA outcomes were summarised in a narrative synthesis. Results From 8389 studies, 19 met the inclusion criteria 13 of which were suitable for inclusion in a meta-analysis. The remaining 6 studies were described narratively due to insufficient data and different outcome measures reported. In the meta-analysis, comparing interventions to a control group, significant increases were found in the intervention group for metabolic equivalent (SMD 0.39 [0.14, 0.64], Z = 3.08 P = 0.002) and physical fitness (VO2 max) (SMD 0.55 [0.34, 0.75], Z = 5.20 P = < 0.001). Of the other six, five studies reported an increase in PA for the intervention group versus the control with the other study reporting a significant decrease for women in their 3rd trimester (p = 0.002). ‘Self-monitoring of behaviour’ was the most frequently used BCTs (76.5%), with ‘social support’ being newly identified for this pregnant population with overweight or obesity. Conclusions This review identified a slight increase in PA for pregnant women with overweight and obesity participating in interventions. However, due to the high risk of bias of the included studies, the results should be interpreted with caution. PA measures should be carefully selected so that studies can be meaningfully compared and standardised taxonomies should be used so that BCTs can be accurately assessed

Episodic fluid venting from sedimentary basins fuelled by pressurised mudstones

Subsurface sandstone reservoirs sealed by overlying, low-permeability layers provide capacity for long-term sequestration of anthropogenic waste. Leakage can occur if reservoir pressures rise sufficiently to fracture the seal. Such pressures can be generated within the reservoir by vigorous injection of waste or, over thousands of years, by natural processes. In either case, the precise role of intercalated mudstones in the long-term evolution of reservoir pressure remains unclear; these layers have variously been viewed as seals, as pressure sinks, or as pressure sources. Here, we use the geological record of episodic fluid venting in the Levant Basin to provide striking evidence for the pressure-source hypothesis. We use a Bayesian framework to combine recently published venting data, which record critical subsurface pressures since ∼2 Ma, with a stochastic model of pressure evolution to infer a pressure-recharge rate of ∼30 MPa/Myr. To explain this large rate, we quantify and compare a range of candidate mechanisms. We find that poroelastic pressure diffusion from mudstones provides the most plausible explanation for these observations, amplifying the ∼3 MPa/Myr recharge caused primarily by tectonic compression. Since pressurized mudstones are ubiquitous in sedimentary basins, pressure diffusion from mudstones is likely to promote seal failure globally

Episodic, compression-driven fluid venting in layered sedimentary basins

Fluid venting phenomena are prevalent in sedimentary basins globally. Offshore, these localised fluid-expulsion events are archived in the geologic record via the resulting pockmarks at the sea-floor. Venting is widely interpreted to occur via hydraulic fracturing, which requires near-lithostatic pore pressures for initiation. One common driver for these extreme pressures is horizontal tectonic compression, which pressurises the entire sedimentary column over a wide region. Fluid expulsion leads to a sudden, local relief of this pressure, which then gradually recharges through continued compression, leading to episodic venting. Pressure recharge will also occur through pressure diffusion from neighboring regions that remain pressurised, but the combined role of compression and pressure diffusion in episodic venting has not previously been considered. Here, we develop a novel poroelastic model for episodic, compression-driven venting. We show that compression and pressure diffusion together set the resulting venting period. We derive a simple analytical expression for this venting period, demonstrating that pressure diffusion can significantly reduce the venting period associated with a given rate of compression and allowing this rate of compression to be inferred from observations of episodic venting. Our results indicate that pressure diffusion is a major contributor to episodic fluid venting in mudstone-dominated basins

Episodic fluid venting from sedimentary basins fuelled by pressurised mudstones

Subsurface sandstone reservoirs sealed by overlying, low-permeability layers provide capacity for long-term sequestration of anthropogenic waste. Leakage can occur if reservoir pressures rise sufficiently to fracture the seal. Such pressures can be generated within the reservoir by vigorous injection of waste or, over thousands of years, by natural processes. In either case, the precise role of intercalated mudstones in the long-term evolution of reservoir pressure remains unclear; these layers have variously been viewed as seals, as pressure sinks or as pressure sources. Here, we use the geological record of episodic fluid venting in the Levant Basin to provide striking evidence for the pressure-source hypothesis. We use a Bayesian framework to combine recently published venting data, which record critical subsurface pressures since $\sim$2 Ma, with a stochastic model of pressure evolution to infer a pressure-recharge rate of $\sim$30 MPa/Myr. To explain this large rate, we quantify and compare a range of candidate mechanisms. We find that poroelastic pressure diffusion from mudstones provides the most plausible explanation for these observations, amplifying the $\sim$1 MPa/Myr recharge caused by tectonic compression. Since pressurised mudstones are ubiquitous in sedimentary basins, pressure diffusion from mudstones is likely to promote seal failure globally

Increased gravitational force reveals the mechanical, resonant nature of physiological tremor

Human physiological hand tremor has a resonant component. Proof of this is that its frequency can be modified by adding mass. However, adding mass also increases the load which must be supported. The necessary force requires muscular contraction which will change motor output and is likely to increase limb stiffness. The increased stiffness will partly offset the effect of the increased mass and this can lead to the erroneous conclusion that factors other than resonance are involved in determining tremor frequency. Using a human centrifuge to increase head-to-foot gravitational field strength, we were able to control for the increased effort by increasing force without changing mass. This revealed that the peak frequency of human hand tremor is 99% predictable on the basis of a resonant mechanism. We ask what, if anything, the peak frequency of physiological tremor can reveal about the operation of the nervous system.This work was funded by a BBSRC Industry Interchange Award to J.P.R.S. and R.F.R. C.J.O. was funded by BBSRC grant BB/I00579X/1. C.A.V. was funded by A∗Midex (Aix-Marseille Initiative of Excellence