The myths and realities of Bayesian chronological modeling revealed

We review the history of Bayesian chronological modeling in archaeology and demonstrate that there has been a surge over the past several years in American archaeological applications. Most of these applications have been performed by archaeologists who are self-taught in this method because formal training opportunities in Bayesian chronological modeling are infrequently provided. We define and address misconceptions about Bayesian chronological modeling that we have encountered in conversations with colleagues and in anonymous reviews, some of which have been expressed in the published literature. Objectivity and scientific rigor is inherent in the Bayesian chronological modeling process. Each stage of this process is described in detail, and we present examples of this process in practice. Our concluding discussion focuses on the potential that Bayesian chronological modeling has for enhancing understandings of important topics

The Mississippian fin de siècle in the middle Cumberland region of Tennessee

Bayesian chronological modeling is used to investigate the chronology for a large-scale human depopulation event during the Mississippian period (AD 1000–1600) known as the Vacant Quarter phenomenon. The Middle Cumberland region (MCR) of Tennessee is within the Vacant Quarter area, and six villages from the final phase of Mississippian activity in the MCR have been subjected to radiocarbon dating. Complete radiocarbon datasets from these sites are presented within an interpretative Bayesian statistical framework. The results provide a unique history of each settlement and demonstrate that Mississippian occupations at each site likely terminated in the mid- to late fifteenth and possibly early sixteenth centuries AD, which is 50 to 100 years later than the most recent estimate for the timing of the Vacant Quarter. Mississippian abandonment in the MCR was relatively quick, likely occurring over less than a century. The exact reasons for abandonment are not entirely clear but appear to be linked to climate change. A radiocarbon simulation experiment indicates that future robust radiocarbon dating with well-selected samples could greatly improve the chronological precision for this late Mississippian activity. More broadly, this example demonstrates that model building with radiocarbon simulations can be used to address regional-scale chronological issues within the American Southeast and beyond

Timing of precolumbian militarization in the U.S. Midwest and Southeast

Bayesian chronological modeling is used to investigate the chronology of bastioned palisades during the precolumbian period in the Midwestern and Southeastern United States. Nine precolumbian settlements in the Midwest and Southeast with bastioned palisades have been subject to scientific dating (Angel Mounds, Annis Village, Aztalan, Cahokia Mounds, Etowah, Kincaid Mounds, Jonathan Creek, Moundville, and Southwind). Complete radiocarbon datasets from these sites are presented within an interpretative Bayesian statistical framework. The results provide a glimpse into the history of Mississippi period (A.D. 1000–1700) fortifications with bastions and indicate that the analyzed fortifications were built and maintained predominantly in A.D. 1200–1400. This finding suggests a greater institutionalized role for defense and warfare in post-A.D. 1200 Mississippian societies. Additionally, modeling results further indicate that the investigated Mississippian centers continued to maintain fortifications for generations after their construction

Research in progress: Assessing marine radiocarbon reservoir effect variation in greater Utqiaġvik, Alaska

No abstract available

Contemplating the history and future of radiocarbon dating in the American Southeast

We consider the history, present, and future of radiocarbon dating in the American Southeast. We point out some of the past and present flaws related to archaeological research and dating. Our approach to this review is rooted in the perspective that each radiocarbon date collectively adds to our knowledge of the region and not just a particular site. Based on our observations, we suggest some “good” practices with respect to certain aspects of radiocarbon dating. Our concluding discussion considers Bayesian chronological analysis and the growing contribution of chronological modeling to the Southeast

Acceleration with Self-Injection for an All-Optical Radiation Source at LNF

We discuss a new compact gamma-ray source aiming at high spectral density, up to two orders of magnitude higher than currently available bremsstrahlung sources, and conceptually similar to Compton Sources based on conventional linear accelerators. This new source exploits electron bunches from laser-driven electron acceleration in the so-called self-injection scheme and uses a counter-propagating laser pulse to obtain X and gamma-ray emission via Thomson/Compton scattering. The proposed experimental configuration inherently provides a unique test-bed for studies of fundamental open issues of electrodynamics. In view of this, a preliminary discussion of recent results on self-injection with the FLAME laser is also given.Comment: 8 pages, 10 figures, 44 references - Channeling 2012 conferenc

Chronology of a Fortified Mississippian Village in the Central Illinois River Valley

Geophysical survey and excavations from 2010–2016 at Lawrenz Gun Club (11CS4), a late pre-Columbian village located in the central Illinois River valley in Illinois, identified 10 mounds, a central plaza, and dozens of structures enclosed within a stout 10 hectare bastioned palisade. Nineteen radiocarbon (14C) measurements were taken from single entities of wood charcoal, short-lived plants, and animal bones. A site chronology has been constructed using a Bayesian approach that considers the stratigraphic contexts and feature formation processes. The village was host to hundreds of years of continuous human activity during the Mississippi Period. Mississippian activity at the site is estimated to have begun in cal AD 990–1165 (95% probability), ended in cal AD 1295–1450 (95% probability), and lasted 150–420 yr (95% probability) in the primary Bayesian model with similar results obtained in two alternative models. The palisade is estimated to have been constructed in cal AD 1150–1230 (95% probability) and was continuously repaired and rebuilt for 15–125 yr (95% probability), probably for 40–85 yr (68% probability). Comparison to other studies demonstrates that the bastioned palisade at Lawrenz was one of the earliest constructed in the midcontinental United States

Time evolution of stimulated Raman scattering and two-plasmon decay at laser intensities relevant for shock ignition in a hot plasma

Laser–plasma interaction (LPI) at intensities 1015–1016 W cm2 is dominated by parametric instabilities which can be responsible for a significant amount of non-collisional absorption and generate large fluxes of high-energy nonthermal electrons. Such a regime is of paramount importance for inertial confinement fusion (ICF) and in particular for the shock ignition scheme. In this paper we report on an experiment carried out at the Prague Asterix Laser System (PALS) facility to investigate the extent and time history of stimulated Raman scattering (SRS) and two-plasmon decay (TPD) instabilities, driven by the interaction of an infrared laser pulse at an intensity 1:2 1016 W cm2 with a 100 mm scalelength plasma produced from irradiation of a flat plastic target. The laser pulse duration (300 ps) and the high value of plasma temperature (4 keV) expected from hydrodynamic simulations make these results interesting for a deeper understanding of LPI in shock ignition conditions. Experimental results show that absolute TPD/SRS, driven at a quarter of the critical density, and convective SRS, driven at lower plasma densities, are well separated in time, with absolute instabilities driven at early times of interaction and convective backward SRS emerging at the laser peak and persisting all over the tail of the pulse. Side-scattering SRS, driven at low plasma densities, is also clearly observed. Experimental results are compared to fully kinetic large-scale, two-dimensional simulations. Particle-in-cell results, beyond reproducing the framework delineated by the experimental measurements, reveal the importance of filamentation instability in ruling the onset of SRS and stimulated Brillouin scattering instabilities and confirm the crucial role of collisionless absorption in the LPI energy balance

Identifiable Acetylene Features Predicted for Young Earth-like Exoplanets with Reducing Atmospheres Undergoing Heavy Bombardment

The chemical environments of young planets are assumed to be largely influenced by the impacts of bodies lingering on unstable trajectories after the dissolution of the protoplanetary disk. We explore the chemical consequences of impacts within the context of reducing planetary atmospheres dominated by carbon monoxide, methane, and molecular nitrogen. A terawatt high-power laser was selected in order to simulate the airglow plasma and blast wave surrounding the impactor. The chemical results of these experiments are then applied to a theoretical atmospheric model. The impact simulation results in substantial volume mixing ratios within the reactor of 5% hydrogen cyanide (HCN), 8% acetylene (C2H2), 5% cyanoacetylene (HC3N), and 1% ammonia (NH3). These yields are combined with estimated impact rates for the early Earth to predict surface boundary conditions for an atmospheric model. We show that impacts might have served as sources of energy that would have led to steady-state surface quantities of 0.4% C2H2, 400 ppm HCN, and 40 ppm NH3. We provide simulated transit spectra for an Earth-like exoplanet with this reducing atmosphere during and shortly after eras of intense impacts. We predict that acetylene is as observable as other molecular features on exoplanets with reducing atmospheres that have recently gone through their own "heavy bombardments," with prominent features at 3.05 and 10.5 μm