Sensitivity of inferred climate model skill to evaluation decisions: a case study using CMIP5 evapotranspiration

Confrontation of climate models with observationally-based reference datasets is widespread and integral to model development. These comparisons yield skill metrics quantifying the mismatch between simulated and reference values and also involve analyst choices, or meta-parameters, in structuring the analysis. Here, we systematically vary five such meta-parameters (reference dataset, spatial resolution, regridding approach, land mask, and time period) in evaluating evapotranspiration (ET) from eight CMIP5 models in a factorial design that yields 68 700 intercomparisons. The results show that while model–data comparisons can provide some feedback on overall model performance, model ranks are ambiguous and inferred model skill and rank are highly sensitive to the choice of meta-parameters for all models. This suggests that model skill and rank are best represented probabilistically rather than as scalar values. For this case study, the choice of reference dataset is found to have a dominant influence on inferred model skill, even larger than the choice of model itself. This is primarily due to large differences between reference datasets, indicating that further work in developing a community-accepted standard ET reference dataset is crucial in order to decrease ambiguity in model skill

Proton-Antiproton Annihilation into a Lambda_c-Antilambda_c Pair

The process p-pbar -> Lambda_c-Antilambda_c is investigated within the handbag approach. It is shown that the dominant dynamical mechanism, characterized by the partonic subprocess u-ubar -> c-cbar factorizes in the sense that only the subprocess contains highly virtual partons, a gluon to lowest order of perturbative QCD, while the hadronic matrix elements embody only soft scales and can be parameterized in terms of helicity flip and non-flip generalized parton distributions. Modelling these parton distributions by overlaps of light-cone wave functions for the involved baryons we are able to predict cross sections and spin correlation parameters for the process of interest.Comment: 39 pages, 7 figures, problems with printout of figures resolved, Ref. 33 and referring sentences in section 4 change

Construction of a bacterial artificial chromosome library from the spikemoss Selaginella moellendorffii: a new resource for plant comparative genomics

BACKGROUND: The lycophytes are an ancient lineage of vascular plants that diverged from the seed plant lineage about 400 Myr ago. Although the lycophytes occupy an important phylogenetic position for understanding the evolution of plants and their genomes, no genomic resources exist for this group of plants. RESULTS: Here we describe the construction of a large-insert bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC) library from the lycophyte Selaginella moellendorffii. Based on cell flow cytometry, this species has the smallest genome size among the different lycophytes tested, including Huperzia lucidula, Diphaiastrum digita, Isoetes engelmanii and S. kraussiana. The arrayed BAC library consists of 9126 clones; the average insert size is estimated to be 122 kb. Inserts of chloroplast origin account for 2.3% of the clones. The BAC library contains an estimated ten genome-equivalents based on DNA hybridizations using five single-copy and two duplicated S. moellendorffii genes as probes. CONCLUSION: The S. moellenforffii BAC library, the first to be constructed from a lycophyte, will be useful to the scientific community as a resource for comparative plant genomics and evolution

The house dust mite allergen Der p 5 binds lipid ligands and stimulates airway epithelial cells through a TLR2‐dependent pathway

Background: Protein crystallographic studies suggest that the house dust mite (HDM) allergen Der p 5 potentially interacts with hydrophobic ligands. Der p 5, in association with its ligand(s), might therefore trigger innate immune signalling pathways in the airway epithelium and influence the initiation of the HDM‐allergic response. Objective: We investigated the lipid binding propensities of recombinant (r)Der p 5 and characterized the signalling pathways triggered by the allergen in airway epithelial cells. Methods: rDer p 5 was produced in Pichia pastoris and characterized by mass spectrometry, multi‐angle light scattering and circular dichroism. Its interactions with hydrophobic ligands were investigated in fluorescence‐based lipid binding assays and in‐silico docking simulations. Innate immune signalling pathways triggered by rDer p 5 were investigated in airway epithelial cell activation assays in vitro. Results: Biophysical analysis showed that rDer p 5 was monomeric and adopted a similar α‐helix‐rich fold at both physiological and acidic pH. Spectrofluorimetry experiments showed that rDer p 5 is able to selectively bind lipid ligands, but only under mild acidic pH conditions. Computer‐based docking simulations identified potential binding sites for these ligands. This allergen, with putatively associated lipid(s), triggered the production of IL‐8 in respiratory epithelial cells through a TLR2‐, NF‐kB‐ and MAPK‐dependent signalling pathway. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance: Despite the fact that Der p 5 represents a HDM allergen of intermediate prevalence, our findings regarding its lipid binding and activation of TLR2 indicate that it could participate in the initiation of the HDM‐allergic state

A Minimum Column Density of 1 g cm^-2 for Massive Star Formation

Massive stars are very rare, but their extreme luminosities make them both the only type of young star we can observe in distant galaxies and the dominant energy sources in the universe today. They form rarely because efficient radiative cooling keeps most star-forming gas clouds close to isothermal as they collapse, and this favors fragmentation into stars <~1 Msun. Heating of a cloud by accreting low-mass stars within it can prevent fragmentation and allow formation of massive stars, but what properties a cloud must have to form massive stars, and thus where massive stars form in a galaxy, has not yet been determined. Here we show that only clouds with column densities >~ 1 g cm^-2 can avoid fragmentation and form massive stars. This threshold, and the environmental variation of the stellar initial mass function (IMF) that it implies, naturally explain the characteristic column densities of massive star clusters and the difference between the radial profiles of Halpha and UV emission in galactic disks. The existence of a threshold also implies that there should be detectable variations in the IMF with environment within the Galaxy and in the characteristic column densities of massive star clusters between galaxies, and that star formation rates in some galactic environments may have been systematically underestimated.Comment: Accepted for publication in Nature; Nature manuscript style; main text: 14 pages, 3 figures; supplementary text: 8 pages, 1 figur

The Worldvolume Action of Kink Solitons in AdS Spacetime

A formalism is presented for computing the higher-order corrections to the worldvolume action of co-dimension one solitons. By modifying its potential, an explicit "kink" solution of a real scalar field in AdS spacetime is found. The formalism is then applied to explicitly compute the kink worldvolume action to quadratic order in two expansion parameters--associated with the hypersurface fluctuation length and the radius of AdS spacetime respectively. Two alternative methods are given for doing this. The results are expressed in terms of the trace of the extrinsic curvature and the intrinsic scalar curvature. In addition to conformal Galileon interactions, we find a non-Galileon term which is never sub-dominant. This method can be extended to any conformally flat bulk spacetime.Comment: 32 pages, 3 figures, typos corrected and additional comments adde

The role of horizontal resolution in simulating drivers of the global hydrological cycle

The role of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) horizontal resolution in representing the global energy budget and hydrological cycle is assessed, with the aim of improving the understanding of model uncertainties in simulating the hydrological cycle. We use two AGCMs from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre: HadGEM1-A at resolutions ranging from 270 to 60 km, and HadGEM3-A ranging from 135 to 25 km. The models exhibit a stable hydrological cycle, although too intense compared to reanalyses and observations. This over-intensity is explained by excess surface shortwave radiation, a common error in general circulation models (GCMs). This result is insensitive to resolution. However, as resolution is increased, precipitation decreases over the ocean and increases over the land. This is associated with an increase in atmospheric moisture transport from ocean to land, which changes the partitioning of moisture fluxes that contribute to precipitation over land from less local to more non-local moisture sources. The results start to converge at 60-km resolution, which underlines the excessive reliance of the mean hydrological cycle on physical parametrization (local unresolved processes) versus model dynamics (large-scale resolved processes) in coarser HadGEM1 and HadGEM3 GCMs. This finding may be valid for other GCMs, showing the necessity to analyze other chains of GCMs that may become available in the future with such a range of horizontal resolutions. Our finding supports the hypothesis that heterogeneity in model parametrization is one of the underlying causes of model disagreement in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises

Visually estimated ejection fraction by two dimensional and triplane echocardiography is closely correlated with quantitative ejection fraction by real-time three dimensional echocardiography

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Visual assessment of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is often used in clinical routine despite general recommendations to use quantitative biplane Simpsons (BPS) measurements. Even thou quantitative methods are well validated and from many reasons preferable, the feasibility of visual assessment (eyeballing) is superior. There is to date only sparse data comparing visual EF assessment in comparison to quantitative methods available. The aim of this study was to compare visual EF assessment by two-dimensional echocardiography (2DE) and triplane echocardiography (TPE) using quantitative real-time three-dimensional echocardiography (RT3DE) as the reference method.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Thirty patients were enrolled in the study. Eyeballing EF was assessed using apical 4-and 2 chamber views and TP mode by two experienced readers blinded to all clinical data. The measurements were compared to quantitative RT3DE.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were an excellent correlation between eyeballing EF by 2D and TP vs 3DE (r = 0.91 and 0.95 respectively) without any significant bias (-0.5 ± 3.7% and -0.2 ± 2.9% respectively). Intraobserver variability was 3.8% for eyeballing 2DE, 3.2% for eyeballing TP and 2.3% for quantitative 3D-EF. Interobserver variability was 7.5% for eyeballing 2D and 8.4% for eyeballing TP.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Visual estimation of LVEF both using 2D and TP by an experienced reader correlates well with quantitative EF determined by RT3DE. There is an apparent trend towards a smaller variability using TP in comparison to 2D, this was however not statistically significant.</p