Exchange Rate Arrangements Prior to Euro Adoption

This paper discusses the exchange rate policies in the three stages of the euro adoption process. In the first stage, i.e., after EU accession but before ERM II entry, the exchange rate becomes a matter of “common concern” according to the Treaty. The paper argues that in the modern conditions, this has no real meaning besides mutual consultations on macroeconomic policy issues. In the second stage, common concern becomes institutionalized under the ERM II mechanism. Its main advantages and risks are discussed, and the arguments for minimizing the length of this stage are presented. In the third step, the exchange rate stability criterion is assessed before the country is allowed to adopt the euro. The paper discusses the open issues in the interpretation of this criterion. Finally, the current state of the Czech euro adoption strategy is described.monetary integration, euro adoption, convergence criteria, ERM II

Inflation Target Fulfillment in the Czech Republic in 1998–2007: Some Stylized Facts

This paper provides some stylized facts of inflation target fulfillment in the Czech Republic in 1998–2007. In the first part, it discusses briefly the general macroeconomic conditions of the Czech inflation targeting regime, including an identification of the main shocks affecting its performance. The second part compares the extent of inflation target non-fulfillment in the Czech Republic with the experience of other inflation targeting countries. It turns out that the success rate in terms of inflation target fulfillment has changed over time. While in the early phase of inflation targeting the deviations of inflation from the CNB’s targets were high by international comparison, more recently the CNB has converged to the track record of relatively successful inflation targeting central banks.monetary policy, inflation targeting

Do Central Bank Forecast Errors Contribute to the Missing of Inflation Targets? The Case of the Czech Republic

This paper is primarily concerned with assessing the bias of the CNB’s predictions in relation to undershooting of the inflation target. We conclude that the inflation prediction error has decreased over time. We further point out that GDP growth and interest rates were, respectively, above and below the forecast most of the time, even in a situation of systematic undershooting of the target. Thus, the undershooting cannot be explained with the help of standard demand mechanisms. Positive supply impulses were admittedly underestimated in the past. According to our findings, about half of the apparent target undershooting in 2003 was due to errors in the predictions of exogenous factors (foreign interest rates, GDP, and inflation). As follows from the distribution of the inflation prediction errors across separate price segments, overpredictions of inflation during most of the period under review were due to mistakes in the prediction of food prices and core CPI ex food, while prediction errors in energy prices mostly fostered convergence to the target. The prediction errors in regulated prices acted in both directions.macroeconomics, monetary policy, inflation targeting, forecasting

Monetary Policy Strategies before Euro Adoption: The Art of Chasing Many Rabbits

This policy paper deals with the main strategic issues for monetary policy in new EU member states before their euro adoption. These are typically rooted in the challenge of fulfilling concurrently of the Maastricht inflation and exchange rate criteria. In this paper we first put forward that these criteria are vaguely defined and distinguish between the wording, written interpretation and ’revealed’ interpretation (by the European authorities) of these criteria. Next, the paper contain the comprehensive discussion of the strategic options for monetary policy in the period of fulfilment of these criteria in terms of (i) its transparency, (ii) its continuity with the previous monetary policy regime, (iii) the choice of central parity for the ERM II, (iv) the setting of the fluctuation bandwidth, (v) the probability of fulfilment of both criteria and (vi) the impact on the autonomy of monetary policy.Monetary policy, euro adoption, ERM II, EU

Preliminary results of the Slovakian national project regarding carbon dioxide storage in underground spaces

AbstractThe Slovak republic territory in spite of its extremely complicated geological pattern affords some possibilities for potential storage of carbon dioxide. The aim of the Slovakian National project “Quantitative parameters selected geological structures suitable for CO2 storage” is to find convenient places for this purpose in regional aquifers, and depleted hydrocarbon deposits. Besides, of these geological rock complexes–mostly ultramafic rocks - have been investigated for purposes of mineral carbonation of CO2. The first attempt about fate of CO2 in brine (regional aquifer) has been modelled from geochemical point of view.. From the preliminary results of the all above - mentioned options is obvious that for the process of the practical activation of CCS technologies many collisions with hydrogeological, geothermal and land use planning activities and regulations will be necessary to solve

Density, porosity and magnetic susceptibility of the Košice meteorite shower and homogeneity of its parent meteoroid

Bulk and grain density, porosity, and magnetic susceptibility of 67 individuals of Košice H chondrite fall were measured. The mean bulk and grain densities were determined to be 3.43 g/cm3 with standard deviation (s.d.) of 0.11 g/cm3 and 3.79 g/cm3 with s.d. 0.07 g/cm3, respectively. Porosity is in the range from 4.2 to 16.1%. The logarithm of the apparent magnetic susceptibility (in 10−9 m3/kg) shows narrow distribution from 5.17 to 5.49 with mean value at 5.35 with s.d. 0.08. These results indicate that all studied Košice meteorites are of the same composition down to ∼g scale without presence of foreign (non-H) clasts and are similar to other H chondrites. Košice is thus a homogeneous meteorite fall derived from a homogenous meteoroid.Peer reviewe

Essays on Managerial Pay Structure

Three essays on regime change∗ Juraj Antal CERGE-EI† and ČNB‡ June 2008 Abstract This dissertation consists of three chapters from different economic fields that have a regime change in common. While the first chapter deals with anticipated monetary regime change, the other two chapters address political regime change. The impact of the particular regime change on equilibrium outcomes, based on microfoundations, is part of the result common to all chapters. In addition, each chapter provides additional results and insights into the corresponding topic. Keywords: Macroeconomics, Political Economics, Transition Economics, New Keynesian Models, Small Open Economy, Monetary Policy Rules, Regime Change, Communist parties, Strategic Behavior, Corruption, Electoral competition, Media JEL classification: E17, E31, E52, E58, E61, F02, F41 ∗ František Brázdik is the coauthor of the first chapter. This chapter was supported by the Czech National Bank Research Project No. A2/2005. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Czech National Bank. † A joint workplace of the Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education, Charles University, Prague, and the Economics Institute of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic. Address: CERGE-EI, P.O. Box 882, Politických vězňů 7,..

Essays on Managerial Pay Structure

Three essays on regime change∗ Juraj Antal CERGE-EI† and ČNB‡ June 2008 Abstract This dissertation consists of three chapters from different economic fields that have a regime change in common. While the first chapter deals with anticipated monetary regime change, the other two chapters address political regime change. The impact of the particular regime change on equilibrium outcomes, based on microfoundations, is part of the result common to all chapters. In addition, each chapter provides additional results and insights into the corresponding topic. Keywords: Macroeconomics, Political Economics, Transition Economics, New Keynesian Models, Small Open Economy, Monetary Policy Rules, Regime Change, Communist parties, Strategic Behavior, Corruption, Electoral competition, Media JEL classification: E17, E31, E52, E58, E61, F02, F41 ∗ František Brázdik is the coauthor of the first chapter. This chapter was supported by the Czech National Bank Research Project No. A2/2005. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Czech National Bank. † A joint workplace of the Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education, Charles University, Prague, and the Economics Institute of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic. Address: CERGE-EI, P.O. Box 882, Politických vězňů 7,..

The effects of media on corruption

In this paper I model post-election politics with asymmetric information where media transfer the missing information to voters