A Proposal of a Synthetic Indicator to Measure Poverty Intensity, With an Application to EU-15 Countries

This paper deals with the proposal of a synthetic indicator to measure intensity of poverty. So, whereas incidence of poverty can be clearly measured using the headcount ratio indicator, according to Sen (1976) dimensions of poverty, the choice of a better intensity poverty measure is still an open question to resolve. Thus, in this paper, a new procedure to obtain a synthetic indicator from a set of well-performed poverty intensity indices as a start is proposed, using an adaptation of Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Conditions needed to make longitudinal comparisons possible are studied and properties of these synthetic indicators will also be analyzed, connected to TIP curves as well. As an illustration, this paper analyzes the evolution of poverty in the 15 countries of E.U., whose household income data are available through the information contained in the European Community Household Panel (ECPH). This analysis allows static and dynamic comparisons, related to the period from 1993 to 2000. Furthermore, the determination of groups of countries according to their characteristics in poverty will be accomplished.Economic Poverty, TIP’s poverty curves, Poverty in EU countries, PHOGUE.

The Spanish technical change : a regional and a dynamic analysis (1994-2007)

Studying wage dispersion, many researchers have found that the skill premium (the ratio of skilled workers¿ wages to unskilled ones) has increased after 1979 in many developed countries, when there was a very sharp increase in the supply of skilled workers. The recent consensus is that technical change favours skilled workers, replacing tasks previously performed by the unskilled and exacerbating inequality. In the Spanish case, Nuñez and Alfaro (2009) have found evidences of a decline in the wage premium during the nineties. So, in this paper, we distinguish between skilled and unskilled workers differentiating the efficiency units of both types of workers. Moreover, we calculate the Spanish technology frontier and the technology differences between the Spanish Regions in 2006 and we analyze the evolution of the Spanish technology frontier over 1994-2007, testing the kind of technical change. In addition, a coherent Spanish wage micro-data base is achieved, using data from Eurostat: ECHP and EU-SILC

The Spanish technical change : a regional and a dynamic analysis (1994-2007)

Studying wage dispersion, many researchers have found that the skill premium (the ratio of skilled workers¿ wages to unskilled ones) has increased after 1979 in many developed countries, when there was a very sharp increase in the supply of skilled workers. The recent consensus is that technical change favours skilled workers, replacing tasks previously performed by the unskilled and exacerbating inequality. In the Spanish case, Nuñez and Alfaro (2009) have found evidences of a decline in the wage premium during the nineties. So, in this paper, we distinguish between skilled and unskilled workers differentiating the efficiency units of both types of workers. Moreover, we calculate the Spanish technology frontier and the technology differences between the Spanish Regions in 2006 and we analyze the evolution of the Spanish technology frontier over 1994-2007, testing the kind of technical change. In addition, a coherent Spanish wage micro-data base is achieved, using data from Eurostat: ECHP and EU-SILC

Poverty Trends in Argentina during the 1993-2003 Period. A Comparative Analysis with the Case of Spain

Texto dispoñible en galego e españolNo presente traballo realízase un estudo comparado dos niveis relativos de pobreza económica en España e na Arxentina durante o período 1993-1999 mediante a análise da súa incidencia e da súa intensidade. Para iso, empréganse datos dos ingresos dos fogares a través do Panel de Hogares de la Unión Europea (PHOGUE), no caso español, e da Encuesta Permanente de Hogares (EPH), no caso arxentino. Por outra parte, inclúese un estudo exhaustivo da pobreza na Arxentina a partir das súas grandes rexións (Gran Bos Aires, Noroeste, Nordeste, Patagonia, Cuyo e Pampa), permitindo ampliar o período, en virtude dos datos dispoñibles, ata os anos 1993-2003. Este estudo inclúe unha comparación dos resultados obtidos utilizando dúas escalas diferentes de equivalencia, tales como a OCDE e o ingreso per cápita dos fogares. Ademais, permitirá rastrexar o impacto sobre os niveis de pobreza de acontece-mentos económicos transcendentes para a economía arxentina no último decenioEn el presente trabajo se realiza un estudio comparado de los niveles relativos de pobreza económica en España y en Argentina durante el período 1993-1999 mediante el análisis de su incidencia y de su intensidad. Para ello, se emplean datos de los ingresos de los hogares a través del Panel de Hogares de la Unión Europea (PHOGUE), en el caso español, y de la Encuesta Permanente de Hogares (EPH), en el caso argentino. Por otra parte, se incluye un estudio exhaustivo de la pobreza en Argentina a partir de sus grandes regiones (Gran Buenos Aires, Noroeste, Noreste, Patagonia, Cuyo y Pampa), permitiendo ampliar el período, en virtud de los datos disponibles, hasta los años 1993-2003. Este estudio incluye una comparación de los resultados obtenidos utilizando dos escalas diferentes de equivalencia, tales como la OCDE y el ingreso per cápita de los hogares. Además, permitirá rastrear el impacto sobre sus niveles de pobreza de acontecimientos económicos trascendentes para la economía argentina en el último decenioIn this paper, a comparative study related to economic poverty levels in both Spain and Argentina, during the 1993-1999 period, is developed. The analysis will be based on their poverty incidence and intensity figures. Data used represent gross household incomes, from the European Household Budget Panel (EHBP) in the Spanish case, and the Household Permanent Survey (EPH) in the Argentinean one. On the other hand, a complete poverty analysis is included both in the case of Argentina as a whole and considering its main regions indeed (Gran Buenos Aires, Noroeste, Noreste, Patagonia, Cuyo and Pampa). In doing so, the expansion of the studied period is possible as far as 1993-2003, using available data. A comparison of obtained household results using OECD and per capita equivalence scales will be accomplished too. Beyond this first scope, the afore-mentioned analysis will be useful in order to follow the poverty impact of transcendental economic facts occurred onto Argentinean economy in the last decadeS

Mack-net model: Blending Mack's model with Recurrent Neural Networks

In general insurance companies, a correct estimation of liabilities plays a key role due to its impact on management and investing decisions. Since the Financial Crisis of 2007?2008 and the strengthening of regulation, the focus is not only on the total reserve but also on its variability, which is an indicator of the risk assumed by the company. Thus, measures that relate profitability with risk are crucial in order to understand the financial position of insurance firms. Taking advantage of the increasing computational power, this paper introduces a stochastic reserving model whose aim is to improve the performance of the traditional Mack?s reserving model by applying an ensemble of Recurrent Neural Networks. The results demonstrate that blending traditional reserving models with deep and machine learning techniques leads to a more accurate assessment of general insurance liabilities

Forecasting volatility with a stacked model based on a hybridized Artificial Neural Network

An appropriate calibration and forecasting of volatility and market risk are some of the main challenges faced by companies that have to manage the uncertainty inherent to their investments or funding opera- tions such as banks, pension funds or insurance companies. This has become even more evident after the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis, when the forecasting models assessing the market risk and volatility failed. Since then, a significant number of theoretical developments and methodologies have appeared to im- prove the accuracy of the volatility forecasts and market risk assessments. Following this line of thinking, this paper introduces a model based on using a set of Machine Learning techniques, such as Gradient Descent Boosting, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine and Artificial Neural Network, where those al- gorithms are stacked to predict S&P500 volatility. The results suggest that our construction outperforms other habitual models on the ability to forecast the level of volatility, leading to a more accurate assess- ment of the market ris

Stochastic reserving with a stacked model based on a hybridized Artificial Neural Network

Currently, legal requirements demand that insurance companies increase their emphasis on monitoring the risks linked to the underwriting and asset management activities. Regarding underwriting risks, the main uncertainties that insurers must manage are related to the premium sufficiency to cover future claims and the adequacy of the current reserves to pay outstanding claims. Both risks are calibrated using stochastic models due to their nature. This paper introduces a reserving model based on a set of machine learning techniques such as Gradient Boosting, Random Forest and Artificial Neural Networks. These algorithms and other widely used reserving models are stacked to predict the shape of the runoff. To compute the deviation around a former prediction, a log-normal approach is combined with the suggested model. The empirical results demonstrate that the proposed methodology can be used to improve the performance of the traditional reserving techniques based on Bayesian statistics and a Chain Ladder, leading to a more accurate assessment of the reserving risk

An alternative approach to measure multidimensional poverty using fuzzy sets: spatial analysis for Ecuador

La teoría de conjuntos difusos aporta un marco referencial para medir la pobreza multidimensional, reemplaza la dicotomía de pobre o no pobre por la pertenencia gradual al conjunto de los pobres. El objetivo de la investigación es proponer un método alternativo para medir la pobreza multidimensional en Ecuador. Se desarrolla tres índices de pobreza aplicando los conjuntos difusos y el enfoque de capacidades, además, se realiza un análisis espacial de la pobreza a nivel provincial. Los principales resultados evidencian que las políticas públicas se deben priorizar hacia la vivienda y el trabajo. No se identifica dependencia espacial ni clústeres de pobreza multidimensional.The theory of fuzzy sets provides a referential framework for measuring poverty under a multidimensional approach. This theory replaces the poor or non-poor dichotomy, by the gradual belonging to the group of the poor. The objective of the research is to propose an alternative method for measuring multidimensional poverty in Ecuador. Three poverty rates are developed using fuzzy sets and the capabilities approach, in addition, a spatial analysis of poverty is carried out at the provincial level. The main results show that public policies must be prioritized towards housing and work, and no spatial dependency or multidimensional poverty clusters are identified

Differential response to intravitreal dexamethasone implant in naïve and previously treated diabetic macular edema eyes

Background: To identify different response patterns to intravitreal dexamethasone implants (IDI) in naïve and previously treated (PT) diabetic macular edema (DME) eyes in a real-life setting. Methods: 342 IDI injections (203 DME eyes) were included. Number of IDI injections, percentage (%) of eyes with 1, 2, 3 and ≥ 4 injections, time to reinjections, visual acuity (VA), intraocular pressure (IOP) and central retinal thickness (CRT) were evaluated for naïve and PT DME eyes over 24 months. Results: Mean number of injections was significantly lower in naïve vs PT DME eyes (1.40 ± 0.9 vs 1.82 ± 0.9, p < 0.001). The percentage of eyes receiving 1 injection was significantly higher in naïve vs PT DME eyes (76.1 vs 47.7), (p < 0.001). However, it was significantly lower for 2 (16.4 vs 29.4), or 3 injections (1.4 vs 17.6) (both p < 0.001), with no differences in eyes receiving ≥4 injections (5.9 vs 5.1 respectively, p = 0.80). Mean time to reinjection was not significantly different between both groups for the second, third and fourth injection (9.6 ± 4.0 vs 10.0 ± 5.5, p = 0.75, 13.2 ± 4.0 vs 16.0 ± 3.5, p = 0.21 and 21.7 ± 3.8 vs 19.7 ± 5.8, p = 0.55). VA scores were consistently better in naïve vs PT DME eyes at all studied timepoints, with no significant differences in CRT reduction or adverse effect rates. Conclusion: Naïve DME eyes received lower number of IDI injections and showed better VA levels than PT DME eyes for 24 months in a real-world setting. This data supports the IDI use in early DME stages and provide further evidence of better IDI response when used as first-line therapy

Basedat 2. Gestión de Bases de datos para la docencia

Se presentan un conjunto de 11 guías de usuario y aplicaciones didácticas. Bases de datos SABI, AMADEUS, PITEC, Encuesta Industrial, COMTRADE, OMC, TRADECAN, FDIstat, Contabilidad Nacional de España del INE, Contabilidad Nacional de Eurostat e Indicadores de Desarrollo Mundial