Centres of Hecke algebras: the Dipper-James conjecture

In this paper we prove the Dipper-James conjecture that the centre of the Iwahori-Hecke algebra of type A is the set of symmetric polynomials in the Jucys-Murphy operators.Comment: 27 pages. To appear J. Algebr

Market Timing Ability and Volatility Implied in Investment Newletters' Asset Allocation Recommendations

We analyze the advice contained in a sample of 237 investment letters over the 1980-1992 period. Each newsletter recommends a mix of equity and cash. We construct portfolios based on these recommendations and find that only a small number of the newsletters appear to have higher average returns than a buy-and-hold portfolio constructed to have the same variance. Knowledge of the asset allocation weights also implies knowledge of the exact conditional betas. As a result, we present direct tests of market timing ability that bypass beta estimation problems. Assuming that different letters cater to investors with different risk aversions, we are able to imply the newsletters' forecasted market returns. The dispersion of the newsletters' forecasts provides a natural measure of disagreement in the market. We find that the degree of disagreement contains information about both market volatility and trading activity.

Expectations of Equity Risk Premia, Volatility and Asymmetry from a Corporate Finance Perspective

We present new evidence on the distribution of the ex ante risk premium based on a multi-year survey of Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) of U.S. corporations. Currently, we have responses from surveys conducted from the second quarter of 2000 through the third quarter of 2001. The results in this paper will be augmented as future surveys become available. We find direct evidence that the one-year risk premium is highly variable through time and 10-year expected risk premium is stable. In particular, after periods of negative returns, CFOs significantly reduce their one-year market forecasts, disagreement (volatility) increases and returns distributions are more skewed to the left. We also examine the relation between ex ante returns and ex ante volatility. The relation between the one-year expected risk premium and expected risk is negative. However, our research points to the importance of horizon. We find a significantly positive relation between expected return and expected risk at the 10-year horizon.

Coke Oven Emissions: A Case Study of Technology-Based Regulation

After examining and analyzing the experience with coke ovens, the authors conclude that attempts to force technology beyond its demonstrated competence can be both expensive and ineffective in controlling hazards. They also suggest implications for pending proposals to further control air pollution

Using Tax Return Data to Simulate Corporate Marginal Tax Rates

We document that simulated corporate marginal tax rates based on financial statement data (Shevlin 1990 and Graham 1996a) are highly correlated with simulated rates based on corporate tax return data. We provide algorithms that can be used to estimate the book or tax simulated rates when they are not available. We find that the simulated book marginal tax rate does a better job of explaining financial statement debt ratios than does the analogous tax return variable and discuss how the book simulated rate is likely to be an appropriate measure in settings with global, long-term considerations.

The Economic Implications of Corporate Financial Reporting

We survey 401 financial executives, and conduct in-depth interviews with an additional 20, to determine the key factors that drive decisions related to reported earnings and voluntary disclosure. The majority of firms view earnings, especially EPS, as the key metric for outsiders, even more so than cash flows. Because of the severe market reaction to missing an earnings target, we find that firms are willing to sacrifice economic value in order to meet a short-run earnings target. The preference for smooth earnings is so strong that 78% of the surveyed executives would give up economic value in exchange for smooth earnings. We find that 55% of managers would avoid initiating a very positive NPV project if it meant falling short of the current quarter's consensus earnings. Missing an earnings target or reporting volatile earnings is thought to reduce the predictability of earnings, which in turn reduces stock price because investors and analysts hate uncertainty. We also find that managers make voluntary disclosures to reduce information risk associated with their stock but try to avoid setting a disclosure precedent that will be difficult to maintain. In general, management's views provide support for stock price motivations for earnings management and voluntary disclosure, but provide only modest evidence in support of other theories of these phenomena (such as debt, political cost and bonus plan based hypotheses).

Investor Competence, Trading Frequency, and Home Bias

People are more willing to bet on their own judgments when they feel skillful or knowledgeable (Heath and Tversky (1991)). We investigate whether this "competence effect" influences trading frequency and home bias. We find that investors who feel competent trade more often and have a more internationally diversified portfolio. We also find that male investors, and investors with higher income or more education, are more likely to perceive themselves as competent investors than are female investors, and investors with lower income or less education. Our results are unlikely to be explained by other hypotheses, such as overconfidence or information advantage. Finally, we separately establish a link between optimism towards the home market and international portfolio diversification.

Managing the Regulatory State: The Experience of the Bush Administration

This Article traces the history of Presidential management of the regulatory state up to the administration of President George W. Bush. It focuses on the latter\u27s implementation of smarter regulation, an approach to regulation based on unfunded mandates on the private sector implemented through the Office of Management and Budget, an organization within the Executive Office of the President. It finds cost-benefit analysis an essential, yet often neglected, tool for implementing efficient and effective regulations. It concludes the policies promoted under President Bush\u27s OMB have effectively cut costs by streamlining the rule-making process and discouraging adopting new federal rules, but cautions there is still a sea of overlapping regulations and conflict over turf among agencies causing the administrative state to steadily rise in cost

Managerial Overconfidence and Corporate Policies

Miscalibration is a standard measure of overconfidence in both psychology and economics. Although it is often used in lab experiments, there is scarcity of evidence about its effects in practice. We test whether top corporate executives are miscalibrated, and whether their miscalibration impacts investment behavior. Over six years, we collect a unique panel of nearly 7,000 observations of probability distributions provided by top financial executives regarding the stock market. Financial executives are miscalibrated: realized market returns are within the executives' 80% confidence intervals only 38% of the time. We show that companies with overconfident CFOs use lower discount rates to value cash flows, and that they invest more, use more debt, are less likely to pay dividends, are more likely to repurchase shares, and they use proportionally more long-term, as opposed to short-term, debt. The pervasive effect of this miscalibration suggests that the effect of overconfidence should be explicitly modeled when analyzing corporate decision-making.

Review of \u3cem\u3eBig Cities in the Welfare Transition.\u3c/em\u3e Alfred J. Hahn and Sheila B. Kamerman. Reviewed by John R. Graham, University of Calgary.

Book review of Alfred J. Kahn and Sheila B. Kamerman, Big Cities in the Welfare Transition. New York: Columbia University School of Social Work, 1998, $25.00 papercove