Economic Determinants for China's Industrial SO2 Emission: Reduced vs. Structural form and the role of international trade

In this paper, basing on panel data on Chinese provincial level from 1991-2000, we test, firstly, the existence of EKC for industrial SO2 emission density. Following, we decompose the economical determinants of this SO2 emission density into: income effect (GDPPC), scale effect (Industrial GDP per km2) and composition effect (industrial capitalistic ratio). And in the third step, we study the direct and indirect role of international trade intensity ((X+M)/GDP). Instead of a supposed EKC, we find ever-increasing trend in industrial SO2 emission density with respect to income growth for most Chinese provinces when the three largest cities (Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai) directly under central government are taken off from our database. Following, confirming Grossman (1995), we succeed in decomposing industrial SO2 emission density into its three famous economic “effects”. However, different from our expectation, the composition effect, measured by industrial capitalistic ratio K/L in this paper, instead of being a pollution-increasing role as generally accepted idea, turns out to lead industrial SO2 density to reduce as a technology-reinforcing factor. For the role of trade, besides the positive direct impact on industrial SO2 density, we find equally some “pollution haven” evidences. In addition, our results show for most provinces, their comparative advantage stays still in labour-intensive sectors, increase in the capitalistic ratio is proven to be environment-friendly through its technological “pollution-abatement” effect until this ratio reach the level of 83333 yuan/person, which can be considered as the threshold to distinguish capital-intensive sector. Due to these different aspect's effects, corresponding to the conclusion of ACT (1998, 2001), the total effect of trade on industrial SO2 pollution does not turn out to be an important factor for industrial SO2 emission density. Including all these co-related economic determinants into a more general graphical analysis, we find that, for most provinces whose actual income and capitalistic ratio stay still at moderate level, further income growth and capital accumulation are generally environment-friendly factor in openness process. However, the further enlargement of openness degree will result in environment deterioration for the provinces that have relatively low income and too low or too high capitalistic ratio. The necessary policy to reduce this possible deterioration is to adopt besides the open policy, the complementary policies aiming at reinforcing public consciences on environment quality (through income effect) and encouraging R&D activities to increase technological efficiency in pollution abatement.“pollution haven” hypothesis.;Decomposition;industrial SO2 emission;international trade;EKC;China

What is the Role of Openness for China's Environment? An Analysis Based on Divisia Decomposition Method From the Regional Angle

Observing the weakness in the previous structural analyses on EKC formation, in this paper, author deepens the analysis into the detailed data of production and SO2 emission intensity of China's 29 industrial sectors (occupying over 98% of the total industrial production) in each province during 1991-2001. With the aid of Divisia Index Decomposition method, the variation of the provincial-level industrial SO2 emission with regard to the original level of 1990 is decomposed into the contribution from its three determinants: the variations in its production scale, its composition transformation and its technique character changes. The following analysis aims to reveal regional differences in environmental impact of industrialization and to further interrogate the potential links between these regionspecific environmental impacts of industrialization and development of commercial openness in each province.Openness;pollution;China;Decomposition;region

Estimation on Economic Cost of China's New De-sulfur Policy During Her Gradual Accession to WTO: The Case of Industrial SO2 Emission

To understand the potential impacts of China’s accession to WTO in her new de-sulphur policy (reduction of 10% of SO2 emission in 2005 with respect to that of 2000), we construct a CGE model in which the SO2 emission is linked directly to energy intermediary consumption in production. The positive externality of trade on China’s economy is also included. This model is then calibrated into a 55-sector Chinese SAM of year 1997. Four policy simulations (BaU, Open, Desulfur, Open+Desulfur) are made for 1997 till 2005 and the Divisia index decomposition method is used to analysis the simulation results. The principal results show the environmental impact of trade, though proven to be “negative”, stays rather modest. This is due to the effect of industrial composition transformation that deviates towards labor-intensive sector specialization under the new trade liberalization process. We also find supposed some modest trade externality effect to contribute to pollution reduction and we do not find proof for “pollution haven” hypothesis. Although seemingly to be quite ambitious, the new de-sulphur policy will only bring very slight economic growth lose. The most part of pollution reduction will be realized by the substitution between polluting and less or non-polluting energies. The combination of the trade liberalization and pollution control policies seems to give China more flexibility in adapting her economy to the new de-sulphurs objective. Considering different aspect together, the total economy loss due to new de-sulphur policy will be limited to only –0.18% under the presence of trade liberalization.Externality., Energy substitution, Industrial SO2 pollution, Trade, CGE

What is the Role of Openness for China's Environment? An Analysis Based on Divisia Decomposition Method From the Regional Angle

Observing the weakness in the previous structural analyses on EKC formation, in this paper, author deepens the analysis into the detailed data of production and SO2 emission intensity of China’s 29 industrial sectors (occupying over 98% of the total industrial production) in each province during 1991-2001. With the aid of Divisia Index Decomposition method, the variation of the provincial-level industrial SO2 emission with regard to the original level of 1990 is decomposed into the contribution from its three determinants: the variations in its production scale, its composition transformation and its technique character changes. The following analysis aims to reveal regional differences in environmental impact of industrialization and to further interrogate the potential links between these regionspecific environmental impacts of industrialization and development of commercial openness in each province.Openness, pollution, China, Decomposition, region

Pollution haven hypothesis and Environmental impacts of foreign direct investment: The Case of Industrial Emission of Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) in Chinese provinces

Recognizing the complex inter-correlation between FDI, emission and the three economic determinants of emission, we constructed a simultaneous model to study the FDI-emission nexus in China by exploring both the dynamic recursive FDI entry decision and the linkage from FDI entry to final emission results under the intermediation of the scale, composition and technique effects. The model is then estimated on the panel data of China's 29 provinces' industrial SO2 emission. Result shows that, exerting through different channels; the total impact of FDI on industrial SO2 emission is very small. With 1% increase in FDI capital stock, industrial SO2 emission will increase by 0.099%, in which the emission increase caused by impact of FDI on economic growth and composition transformation cancels out the emission reduction result due to FDI's role in reinforcement of environmental regulation. By introducing to the simultaneous system the recursive dynamism that supposes FDI entry decision to depend on last period's economic growth and environmental regulation stringency, our model also provides convincing supportive evidences for ‘Pollution haven' hypothesis. Although FDI enterprises in China generally produce with higher pollution efficiency, the rise in environmental regulation stringency still has modest deterrent effect on FDI capital inflow. Furthermore, the composition transformation impact of FDI in China seems to be dominated by the inflow of foreign capital pursuing a ‘production platform' that provides lower pollution regulation compliance cost.composition effect;scale effect;simultaneous system;industrial SO2 emission;foreign direct investment;income effect;and pollution haven hypothesis

Pollution haven hypothesis and Environmental impacts of foreign direct investment: The Case of Industrial Emission of Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) in Chinese provinces

Recognizing the complex inter-correlation between FDI, emission and the three economic determinants of emission, we constructed a simultaneous model to study the FDI-emission nexus in China by exploring both the dynamic recursive FDI entry decision and the linkage from FDI entry to final emission results under the intermediation of the scale, composition and technique effects. The model is then estimated on the panel data of China’s 29 provinces’ industrial SO2 emission. Result shows that, exerting through different channels; the total impact of FDI on industrial SO2 emission is very small. With 1% increase in FDI capital stock, industrial SO2 emission will increase by 0.099%, in which the emission increase caused by impact of FDI on economic growth and composition transformation cancels out the emission reduction result due to FDI’s role in reinforcement of environmental regulation. By introducing to the simultaneous system the recursive dynamism that supposes FDI entry decision to depend on last period’s economic growth and environmental regulation stringency, our model also provides convincing supportive evidences for ‘Pollution haven’ hypothesis. Although FDI enterprises in China generally produce with higher pollution efficiency, the rise in environmental regulation stringency still has modest deterrent effect on FDI capital inflow. Furthermore, the composition transformation impact of FDI in China seems to be dominated by the inflow of foreign capital pursuing a ‘production platform’ that provides lower pollution regulation compliance cost.composition effect, scale effect, simultaneous system, industrial SO2 emission, foreign direct investment, income effect, and pollution haven hypothesis

Chinese Growth and Atmospheric Pollution:An empirical assessment of challenges and opportunities

This paper uses a dynamic CGE model, calibrated to new and detailed Chinese emissions data, to assess two important questions. What can we reasonably expect Chinese emissions trends to look like over the next two decades? Secondly, what would be the appropriate policy interventions to flatten Chinese emissions trajectories and reduce the risk of local, regional, and even global adversity? This research is original in its direct use of the new industrial sector-level emissions and energy using data from China to estimate the energy-specific emission effluent rate and its detailed treatment of policies taking account of the three main determinants of pollution intensity: growth, output composition, and technological change. Our results indicate that, without further effective emission control measures, China’s economic growth over the next two decades will contribute significantly to SO2 emission problems, in which the emission increase from the rapid expansion of the transportation service sectors will be the most remarkable. However, detailed examination of the structural and technological components of pollution shows that efficient pollution mitigation can be realized by focused abatement activities, cleaner production, and advances in cleaner fuel products and their use technologies.

Préférences hétérogènes des grands projets miniers : trois essais en évaluation non marchande

L’évaluation fine des impacts miniers représente un défi majeur considérant l’ampleur des changements socio-économiques et environnementaux et les controverses que le secteur minier continue jusqu’à lors de susciter. Un aspect souvent manquant de l’évaluation des projets miniers est lié à la question de l’impact sur le bien-être. La thèse a pour objectif d’apporter un ensemble d’éclairages sur les potentiels impacts, notamment en considérant l’hétérogénéité de la population. Le contexte d’étude est la province minière du Québec, au Canada, avec une enquête des ménages mesurant les variations de bien-être par la méthode Choice Experiment. L’article 1 pointe l’importance du contexte géographique, marquée par des inégalités spatiales dans les impacts miniers. Nous trouvons que le développement minier peut avoir des impacts de longues distances sur le bien-être, liés au type de minerai et à la perception individuelle du risque. L’article 2 tire avantage du passé minier de l’exploitation de l’or au Québec pour étudier si cette expérience collective facilite les arbitrages miniers sur les terres rares, un minerai nouveau dans la province et souvent méconnu par le public. Enfin l’article 3 teste les effets potentiels de campagnes d’information sur les changements de bien-être. L’information apparaît avoir peu ou aucun effet. Cependant, ce résultat masque des effets élevés et contrastés auprès des individus opposés par leurs perceptions sur l’opportunité/menace d’une nouvelle mine. La thèse conclue en présentant des nouvelles pistes de recherche pour mieux évaluer les effets du développement minier sur le bien-être.Abstract: Granular evaluation of mining impacts is highly challenging as regards to the strong social, environmental and economic changes at play, and possibly related controversies. This thesis raises the question on how mining can affect people’s well-being with a research focus on population heterogeneity. A choice experiment survey is conducted to collect ground information on changing well-being due to mining within the province of Quebec, in Canada. Article 1 points to the importance of the geographic context, marked by spatial inequalities in mining impacts. We find that mining development can have long-range impacts on welfare, related to the type of mineral and individual risk perception. Paper 2 takes advantage of strong gold mining history in Quebec to study whether collective experience facilitates mining trade-offs over rare earths, that are new to the province and often poorly known by general public. Finally, paper 3 tests potential effects of information campaigns on welfare changes. Information appears to have little or no effect. However, this result masks high and contrasting effects according to opposing prior beliefs for or against mining windfall. The thesis concludes on relevant research extensions to help estimate mining effects on people’s well-being