Explaining trends in Scottish coronary heart disease mortality between 2000 and 2010 using IMPACTSEC model: retrospective analysis using routine data.

Objective To quantify the contributions of prevention and treatment to the trends in mortality due to coronary heart disease in Scotland. Design Retrospective analysis using IMPACTSEC, a previously validated policy model, to apportion the recent decline in coronary heart disease mortality to changes in major cardiovascular risk factors and to increases in more than 40 treatments in nine non-overlapping groups of patients. Setting Scotland. Participants All adults aged 25 years or over, stratified by sex, age group, and fifths of Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation. Main outcome measure Deaths prevented or postponed. Results 5770 fewer deaths from coronary heart disease occurred in 2010 than would be expected if the 2000 mortality rates had persisted (8042 rather than 13813). This reflected a 43% fall in coronary heart disease mortality rates (from 262 to 148 deaths per 100000). Improved treatments accounted for approximately 43% (95% confidence interval 33% to 61%) of the fall in mortality, and this benefit was evenly distributed across deprivation fifths. Notable treatment contributions came from primary prevention for hypercholesterolaemia (13%), secondary prevention drugs (11%), and chronic angina treatments (7%). Risk factor improvements accounted for approximately 39% (28% to 49%) of the fall in mortality (44% in the most deprived fifth compared with only 36% in the most affluent fifth). Reductions in systolic blood pressure contributed more than one third (37%) of the decline in mortality, with no socioeconomic patterning. Smaller contributions came from falls in total cholesterol (9%), smoking (4%), and inactivity (2%). However, increases in obesity and diabetes offset some of these benefits, potentially increasing mortality by 4% and 8% respectively. Diabetes showed strong socioeconomic patterning (12% increase in the most deprived fifth compared with 5% for the most affluent fifth). Conclusions Increases in medical treatments accounted for almost half of the large recent decline in mortality due to coronary heart disease in Scotland. Furthermore, the Scottish National Health Service seems to have delivered these benefits equitably. However, the substantial contributions from population falls in blood pressure and other risk factors were diminished by adverse trends in obesity and diabetes. Additional population-wide interventions are urgently needed to reduce coronary heart disease mortality and inequalities in future decades

NT-proBNP by Itself Predicts Death and Cardiovascular Events in High-Risk Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

BACKGROUND: NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) improves the discriminatory ability of risk-prediction models in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) but is not yet used in clinical practice. We assessed the discriminatory strength of NT-proBNP by itself for death and cardiovascular events in high-risk patients with T2DM. METHODS AND RESULTS: Cox proportional hazards were used to create a base model formed by 20 variables. The discriminatory ability of the base model was compared with that of NT-proBNP alone and with NT-proBNP added, using C-statistics. We studied 5509 patients (with complete data) of 8561 patients with T2DM and cardiovascular and/or chronic kidney disease who were enrolled in the ALTITUDE (Aliskiren in Type 2 Diabetes Using Cardiorenal Endpoints) trial. During a median 2.6-year follow-up period, 469 patients died and 768 had a cardiovascular composite outcome (cardiovascular death, resuscitated cardiac arrest, nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure hospitalization). NT-proBNP alone was as discriminatory as the base model for predicting death (C-statistic, 0.745 versus 0.744, P=0.95) and the cardiovascular composite outcome (C-statistic, 0.723 versus 0.731, P=0.37). When NT-proBNP was added, it increased the predictive ability of the base model for death (C-statistic, 0.779 versus 0.744, P<0.001) and for cardiovascular composite outcome (C-statistic, 0.763 versus 0.731, P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In high-risk patients with T2DM, NT-proBNP by itself demonstrated discriminatory ability similar to a multivariable model in predicting both death and cardiovascular events and should be considered for risk stratification. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT00549757

Which patients with heart failure should receive specialist palliative care?

AIMS: We investigated which patients with heart failure (HF) should receive specialist palliative care (SPC) by first creating a definition of need for SPC in patients hospitalised with HF using patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) and then testing this definition using the outcome of days alive and out of hospital (DAOH). We also evaluated which baseline variables predicted need for SPC and whether those with this need received SPC. METHODS AND RESULTS: PROMs assessing quality of life (QoL), symptoms, and mood were administered at baseline and every 4 months. SPC need was defined as persistently severe impairment of any PROM without improvement (or severe impairment immediately preceding death). We then tested whether need for SPC, so defined, was reflected in DAOH, a measure which combines length of stay, days of hospital re-admission, and days lost due to death. Of 272 patients recruited, 74 (27%) met the definition of SPC needs. These patients lived one third fewer DAOH than those without SPC need (and less than a quarter of QoL-adjusted DAOH). A Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) summary score of <29 identified patients who subsequently had SPC needs (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.78). Twenty-four per cent of patients with SPC needs actually received SPC (n = 18). CONCLUSIONS: A quarter of patients hospitalised with HF had a need for SPC and were identified by a low KCCQ score on admission. Those with SPC need spent many fewer DAOH and their DAOH were of significantly worse quality. Very few patients with SPC needs accessed SPC services

High-dose intravenous iron reduces myocardial infarction in patients on haemodialysis

AIMS: To investigate the effect of high-dose iron vs. low-dose intravenous (IV) iron on myocardial infarction (MI) in patients on maintenance haemodialysis. METHODS AND RESULTS: This was a pre-specified analysis of secondary endpoints of the Proactive IV Iron Therapy in Hemodialysis Patients trial (PIVOTAL) randomized, controlled clinical trial. Adults who had started haemodialysis within the previous year, who had a ferritin concentration <400 μg per litre and a transferrin saturation <30% were randomized to high-dose or low-dose IV iron. The main outcome measure for this analysis was fatal or non-fatal MI. Over a median of 2.1 years of follow-up, 8.4% experienced a MI. Rates of type 1 MIs (3.2/100 patient-years) were 2.5 times higher than type 2 MIs (1.3/100 patient-years). Non-ST-elevation MIs (3.3/100 patient-years) were 6 times more common than ST-elevation MIs (0.5/100 patient-years). Mortality was high after non-fatal MI (1- and 2-year mortality of 40% and 60%, respectively). In time-to-first event analyses, proactive high-dose IV iron reduced the composite endpoint of non-fatal and fatal MI [hazard ratio (HR) 0.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.52-0.93, P = 0.01] and non-fatal MI (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.51-0.93; P = 0.01) when compared with reactive low-dose IV iron. There was less effect of high-dose IV iron on recurrent MI events than on the time-to-first event analysis. CONCLUSION: In total, 8.4% of patients on maintenance haemodialysis had an MI over 2 years. High-dose compared to low-dose IV iron reduced MI in patients receiving haemodialysis. EUDRACT REGISTRATION NUMBER: 2013-002267-25

Heart Failure Hospitalization in Adults Receiving Hemodialysis and the Effect of Intravenous Iron Therapy

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to examine the effect of intravenous iron on heart failure events in hemodialysis patients. BACKGROUND: Heart failure is a common and deadly complication in patients receiving hemodialysis and is difficult to diagnose and treat. METHODS: The study analyzed heart failure events in the PIVOTAL (Proactive IV Iron Therapy in Hemodialysis Patients) trial, which compared intravenous iron administered proactively in a high-dose regimen with a low-dose regimen administered reactively. Heart failure hospitalization was an adjudicated outcome, a component of the primary composite outcome, and a prespecified secondary endpoint in the trial. RESULTS: Overall, 2,141 participants were followed for a median of 2.1 years. A first fatal or nonfatal heart failure event occurred in 51 (4.7%) of 1,093 patients in the high-dose iron group and in 70 (6.7%) of 1,048 patients in the low-dose group (HR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.46-0.94; P = 0.023). There was a total of 63 heart failure events (including first and recurrent events) in the high-dose iron group and 98 in the low-dose group, giving a rate ratio of 0.59 (95% CI: 0.40-0.87; P = 0.0084). Most patients presented with pulmonary edema and were mainly treated by mechanical removal of fluid. History of heart failure and diabetes were independent predictors of a heart failure event. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with a lower-dose regimen, high-dose intravenous iron decreased the occurrence of first and recurrent heart failure events in patients undergoing hemodialysis, with large relative and absolute risk reductions. (UK Multicentre Open-label Randomised Controlled Trial Of IV Iron Therapy In Incident Haemodialysis Patients; 2013-002267-25)

Survival Analysis of Patients with Heart Failure: Implications of Time-Varying Regression Effects in Modeling Mortality

Background: Several models have been designed to predict survival of patients with heart failure. These, while available and widely used for both stratifying and deciding upon different treatment options on the individual level, have several limitations. Specifically, some clinical variables that may influence prognosis may have an influence that change over time. Statistical models that include such characteristic may help in evaluating prognosis. The aim of the present study was to analyze and quantify the impact of modeling heart failure survival allowing for covariates with time-varying effects known to be independent predictors of overall mortality in this clinical setting. Methodology: Survival data from an inception cohort of five hundred patients diagnosed with heart failure functional class III and IV between 2002 and 2004 and followed-up to 2006 were analyzed by using the proportional hazards Cox model and variations of the Cox's model and also of the Aalen's additive model. Principal Findings: One-hundred and eighty eight (188) patients died during follow-up. For patients under study, age, serum sodium, hemoglobin, serum creatinine, and left ventricular ejection fraction were significantly associated with mortality. Evidence of time-varying effect was suggested for the last three. Both high hemoglobin and high LV ejection fraction were associated with a reduced risk of dying with a stronger initial effect. High creatinine, associated with an increased risk of dying, also presented an initial stronger effect. The impact of age and sodium were constant over time. Conclusions: The current study points to the importance of evaluating covariates with time-varying effects in heart failure models. The analysis performed suggests that variations of Cox and Aalen models constitute a valuable tool for identifying these variables. The implementation of covariates with time-varying effects into heart failure prognostication models may reduce bias and increase the specificity of such models.CNPq Brazilian Foundation for Scientific and Technological DevelopmentCNPq - Brazilian Foundation for Scientific and Technological Development [150653/2008-5

Effect of eplerenone on extracellular cardiac matrix biomarkers in patients with acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction without heart failure: insights from the randomized double-blind REMINDER Study

Objective: Aldosterone stimulates cardiac collagen synthesis. Circulating biomarkers of collagen turnover provide a useful tool for the assessment of cardiac remodeling in patients with an acute myocardial infarction (MI).  Methods: The REMINDER trial assessed the effect of eplerenone in patients with an acute ST-elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) without known heart failure (HF), when initiated within 24 h of symptom onset. The primary outcome was almost totally (>90%) driven by natriuretic peptide (NP) thresholds after 1-month post-MI (it also included a composite of cardiovascular death or re-hospitalization or new onset HF or sustained ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation or LVEF ≤40% after 1-month post-MI). This secondary analysis aims to assess the extracellular matrix marker (ECMM) levels with regards to: (1) patients` characteristics; (2) determinants; (3) and eplerenone effect.  Results: Serum levels of ECMM were measured in 526 (52%) of the 1012 patients enrolled in the REMINDER trial. Patients with procollagen type III N-terminal propeptide (PIIINP) above the median were older and had worse renal function (p < 0.05). Worse renal function was associated with increased levels of PIIINP (standardized β ≈ 0.20, p < 0.05). Eplerenone reduced PIIINP when the levels of this biomarker were above the median of 3.9 ng/mL (0.13 ± 1.48 vs. -0.37 ± 1.56 ng/mL, p = 0.008). Higher levels of PIIINP were independently associated with higher proportion of NP above the prespecified thresholds (HR = 1.95, 95% CI 1.16-3.29, p = 0.012).  Conclusions: Eplerenone effectively reduces PIIINP levels when baseline values were above the median. Eplerenone may limit ECMM formation in post-MI without HF

Declining risk of sudden death in heart failure

BACKGROUND The risk of sudden death has changed over time among patients with symptomatic heart failure and reduced ejection fraction with the sequential introduction of medi - cations including angiotensin-converting–enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin-receptor blockers, beta-blockers, and mineralocorticoid-receptor antagonists. We sought to examine this trend in detail. METHODS We analyzed data from 40,195 patients who had heart failure with reduced ejection fraction and were enrolled in any of 12 clinical trials spanning the period from 1995 through 2014. Patients who had an implantable cardioverter–defibrillator at the time of trial enrollment were excluded. Weighted multivariable regression was used to examine trends in rates of sudden death over time. Adjusted hazard ratios for sudden death in each trial group were calculated with the use of Cox regression models. The cumulative incidence rates of sudden death were assessed at different time points after randomization and according to the length of time between the diagnosis of heart failure and randomization. RESULTS Sudden death was reported in 3583 patients. Such patients were older and were more often male, with an ischemic cause of heart failure and worse cardiac function, than those in whom sudden death did not occur. There was a 44% decline in the rate of sudden death across the trials (P = 0.03). The cumulative incidence of sudden death at 90 days after randomization was 2.4% in the earliest trial and 1.0% in the most recent trial. The rate of sudden death was not higher among patients with a recent diagnosis of heart failure than among those with a longer-standing diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS Rates of sudden death declined substantially over time among ambulatory patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction who were enrolled in clinical trials, a finding that is consistent with a cumulative benefit of evidence-based medica - tions on this cause of death. (Funded by the China Scholarship Council and the University of Glasgow.

Age- and gender-specific risk of death after first hospitalization for heart failure

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hospitalization for heart failure (HF) is associated with high-in-hospital and short- and long-term post discharge mortality. Age and gender are important predictors of mortality in hospitalized HF patients. However, studies assessing short- and long-term risk of death stratified by age and gender are scarce.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A nationwide cohort was identified (ICD-9 codes 402, 428) and followed through linkage of national registries. The crude 28-day, 1-year and 5-year mortality was computed by age and gender. Cox regression models were used for each period to study sex differences adjusting for potential confounders (age and comorbidities).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>14,529 men, mean age 74 ± 11 years and 14,524 women, mean age 78 ± 11 years were identified. Mortality risk after admission for HF increased with age and the risk of death was higher among men than women. Hazard ratio's (men versus women and adjusted for age and co-morbidity) were 1.21 (95%CI 1.14 to 1.28), 1.26 (95% CI 1.21 to 1.31), and 1.28 (95%CI 1.24 to 1.31) for 28 days, 1 year and 5 years mortality, respectively.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study clearly shows age- and gender differences in short- and long-term risk of death after first hospitalization for HF with men having higher short- and long-term risk of death than women. As our study population includes both men and women from all ages, the estimates we provide maybe a good reflection of 'daily practice' risk of death and therefore be valuable for clinicians and policymakers.</p

Long-term survival of cancer patients compared to heart failure and stroke: A systematic review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cancer, heart failure and stroke are among the most common causes of death worldwide. Investigation of the prognostic impact of each disease is important, especially for a better understanding of competing risks. Aim of this study is to provide an overview of long term survival of cancer, heart failure and stroke patients based on the results of large population- and hospital-based studies.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Records for our study were identified by searches of Medline via Pubmed. We focused on observed and relative age- and sex-adjusted 5-year survival rates for cancer in general and for the four most common malignancies in developed countries, i.e. lung, breast, prostate and colorectal cancer, as well as for heart failure and stroke.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Twenty studies were identified and included for analysis. Five-year observed survival was about 43% for all cancer entities, 40-68% for stroke and 26-52% for heart failure. Five-year age and sex adjusted relative survival was 50-57% for all cancer entities, about 50% for stroke and about 62% for heart failure. In regard to the four most common malignancies in developed countries 5-year relative survival was 12-18% for lung cancer, 73-89% for breast cancer, 50-99% for prostate cancer and about 43-63% for colorectal cancer. Trend analysis revealed a survival improvement over the last decades.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The results indicate that long term survival and prognosis of cancer is not necessarily worse than that of heart failure and stroke. However, a comparison of the prognostic impact of the different diseases is limited, corroborating the necessity for further systematic investigation of competing risks.</p