RoboJam: A Musical Mixture Density Network for Collaborative Touchscreen Interaction

RoboJam is a machine-learning system for generating music that assists users of a touchscreen music app by performing responses to their short improvisations. This system uses a recurrent artificial neural network to generate sequences of touchscreen interactions and absolute timings, rather than high-level musical notes. To accomplish this, RoboJam's network uses a mixture density layer to predict appropriate touch interaction locations in space and time. In this paper, we describe the design and implementation of RoboJam's network and how it has been integrated into a touchscreen music app. A preliminary evaluation analyses the system in terms of training, musical generation and user interaction

Weekly variability of clupeoid eggs and larvae in the Benguela jet current: implications for recruitment

Weekly sampling of ichthyoplankton, current vectors and surface temperature along a 34-mile transect crossing the jet current off the Cape Peninsula was conducted from August 1995 to July 1996 as part of thethird phase of the South African Sardine and Anchovy Recruitment Programme, designed to investigate within-season variability in factors affecting sardine Sardinops sagax and anchovy Engraulis capensisrecruitment. Anchovy eggs and larvae were found from October 1995 to February 1996, with most intense spawning from mid-October to early December. Peak abundances of anchovy eggs (717.m–2) and larvae(342.m–2) were encountered during mid-November. Sardine eggs and larvae were found throughout the year, but were most abundant from August 1995 to February 1996. Numbers  ere greatest during late September, reaching 630 eggs.m–2 and 142 larvae.m–2, with secondary peaks of >200 eggs.m–2 during August, October and January. Spawning products were low from March onwards, but increased slightly during July 1996. Current vectors indicated that spawning prior to December was most favourable for transport of eggs and larvae to the West Coast nursery area. January and February were characterized by increasingly complexflow patterns, while the frontal jet current was positioned offshore of the transect for most of March and April as a result of prolonged periods of upwelling. Monthly length-frequency distributions of larvae indicatedspawning by both species farther east on the western Agulhas Bank later in the season, or more complex transport from that region to the sampling area. Mean monthly (August–March) anchovy and sardine (September – February) egg abundances were significantly correlated (p < 0.05) with the estimated birthdate distribution of recruits, suggesting that frequent monitoring of egg abundance along the transect may be usefulfor forecasting recruitment strength

Temporal correlations in population trends: Conservation implications from time-series analysis of diverse animal taxa

Population trends play a large role in species risk assessments and conservation planning, and species are often considered threatened if their recent rate of decline meets certain thresholds, regardless how large the population is. But how reliable an indicator of extinction risk is a single estimate of population trend? Given the integral role this decline-based approach has played in setting conservation priorities, it is surprising that it has undergone little empirical scrutiny. We compile an extensive global dataset of time series of abundance data for over 1300 vertebrate populations to provide the first major test of the predictability of population growth rates in nature. We divided each time series into assessment and response periods and examined the correlation between growth rates in the two time periods. In birds, population declines tended to be followed by further declines, but mammals, salmon, and other bony fishes showed the opposite pattern: past declines were associated with subsequent population increases, and vice versa. Furthermore, in these taxa subsequent growth rates were higher when initial declines were more severe. These patterns agreed with data simulated under a null model for a dynamically stable population experiencing density dependence. However, this type of result could also occur if conservation actions positively affected the population following initial declines—a scenario that our data were too limited to rigorously evaluate. This ambiguity emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying causes of population trajectories in drawing inferences about rates of decline in abundance

Epidemiology of fractures in Armenia: development of a country-specific FRAX model and comparison to its surrogate

Summary: Fracture probabilities derived from the surrogate FRAX model for Armenia were compared to those from the model based on regional estimates of the incidence of hip fracture. Disparities between the surrogate and authentic FRAX models indicate the importance of developing country-specific FRAX models. Despite large differences between models, differences in the rank order of fracture probabilities were minimal. Objective: Armenia has relied on a surrogate FRAX model based on the fracture epidemiology of Romania. This paper describes the epidemiology of fragility fractures in Armenia used to create an Armenia-specific FRAX model with an aim of comparing this new model with the surrogate model. Methods: We carried out a population-based study in two regions of Armenia (Ararat and Vayots Dzor representing approximately 11% of the country’s population). We aimed to identify all low-energy fractures: retrospectively from hospital registers in 2011–2012 and prospectively in 2013 with the inclusion of primary care sources. Results: The differences in incidence between the surveys with and without data from primary care suggested that 44% of patients sustaining a hip fracture did not receive specialized medical care. A similar proportion of forearm and humeral fractures did not come to hospital attention (48 and 49%, respectively). Only 57.7% of patients sustaining a hip fracture were hospitalized. In 2013, hip fracture incidence at the age of 50 years or more was 201/100,000 for women and 136/100,000 for men, and age- and sex-specific rates were incorporated into the new “authentic” FRAX model for Armenia. Compared to the surrogate model, the authentic model gave lower 10-year fracture probabilities in men and women aged less than 70 years but substantially higher above this age. Notwithstanding, there were very close correlations in fracture probabilities between the surrogate and authentic models ( >  0.99) so that the revisions had little impact on the rank order of risk. Conclusion: A substantial proportion of major osteoporotic fractures in Armenia do not come to hospital attention. The disparities between surrogate and authentic FRAX models indicate the importance of developing country-specific FRAX models. Despite large differences between models, differences in the rank order of fracture probabilities were minimal

Videofluorographic Evaluation of Mastication and Swallowing of Japanese Udon Noodles and White Rice

A videofluorographic (VF) swallowing study was performed on 22 healthy volunteers to observe the complete mastication and swallowing phases for Japanese udon noodles and white rice. The hardness, stickiness, and cohesiveness of food samples were measured using a food texture analyzing system. VF images were acquired using a versatile fluoroscopic unit and barium sulfate was used as a contrast medium. Udon noodles had a harder and smoother food texture than white rice. Fewer chewing movements and more stage 2 transport were seen during the consumption of udon noodles than for white rice

Eta Carinae -- Physics of the Inner Ejecta

Eta Carinae's inner ejecta are dominated observationally by the bright Weigelt blobs and their famously rich spectra of nebular emission and absorption lines. They are dense (n_e ~ 10^7 to 10^8 cm^-3), warm (T_e ~ 6000 to 7000 K) and slow moving (~40 km/s) condensations of mostly neutral (H^0) gas. Located within 1000 AU of the central star, they contain heavily CNO-processed material that was ejected from the star about a century ago. Outside the blobs, the inner ejecta include absorption-line clouds with similar conditions, plus emission-line gas that has generally lower densities and a wider range of speeds (reaching a few hundred km/s) compared to the blobs. The blobs appear to contain a negligible amount of dust and have a nearly dust-free view of the central source, but our view across the inner ejecta is severely affected by uncertain amounts of dust having a patchy distribution in the foreground. Emission lines from the inner ejecta are powered by photoionization and fluorescent processes. The variable nature of this emission, occurring in a 5.54 yr event cycle, requires specific changes to the incident flux that hold important clues to the nature of the central object.Comment: This is Chapter 5 in a book entitled: Eta Carinae and the Supernova Impostors, Kris Davidson and Roberta M. Humphreys, editors Springe

Development of paediatric quality of inpatient care indicators for low-income countries - A Delphi study

BACKGROUND: Indicators of quality of care for children in hospitals in low-income countries have been proposed, but information on their perceived validity and acceptability is lacking. METHODS: Potential indicators representing structural and process aspects of care for six common conditions were selected from existing, largely qualitative WHO assessment tools and guidelines. We employed the Delphi technique, which combines expert opinion and existing scientific information, to assess their perceived validity and acceptability. Panels of experts, one representing an international panel and one a national (Kenyan) panel, were asked to rate the indicators over 3 rounds and 2 rounds respectively according to a variety of attributes. RESULTS: Based on a pre-specified consensus criteria most of the indicators presented to the experts were accepted: 112/137(82%) and 94/133(71%) for the international and local panels respectively. For the other indicators there was no consensus; none were rejected. Most indicators were rated highly on link to outcomes, reliability, relevance, actionability and priority but rated more poorly on feasibility of data collection under routine conditions. There was moderate to substantial agreement between the two panels of experts. CONCLUSIONS: This Delphi study provided evidence for the perceived usefulness of most of a set of measures of quality of hospital care for children proposed for use in low-income countries. However, both international and local experts expressed concerns that data for many process-based indicators may not currently be available. The feasibility of widespread quality assessment and responsiveness of indicators to intervention should be examined as part of continued efforts to improve approaches to informative hospital quality assessment

Evidence of Segregated Spawning in a Single Marine Fish Stock: Sympatric Divergence of Ecotypes in Icelandic Cod?

There is increasing recognition of intraspecific diversity and population structure within marine fish species, yet there is little direct evidence of the isolating mechanisms that maintain it or documentation of its ecological extent. We analyzed depth and temperature histories collected by electronic data storage tags retrieved from 104 Atlantic cod at liberty ≥1 year to evaluate a possible isolating mechanisms maintaining population structure within the Icelandic cod stock. This stock consists of two distinct behavioral types, resident coastal cod and migratory frontal cod, each occurring within two geographically distinct populations. Despite being captured together on the same spawning grounds, we show the behavioral types seem reproductively isolated by fine-scale differences in spawning habitat selection, primarily depth. Additionally, the different groups occupied distinct seasonal thermal and bathymetric niches that generally demonstrated low levels of overlap throughout the year. Our results indicate that isolating mechanisms, such as differential habitat selection during spawning, might contribute to maintaining diversity and fine-scale population structure in broadcast-spawning marine fishes

A Stated Preference Investigation into the Chinese Demand for Farmed vs. Wild Bear Bile

Farming of animals and plants has recently been considered not merely as a more efficient and plentiful supply of their products but also as a means of protecting wild populations from that trade. Amongst these nascent farming products might be listed bear bile. Bear bile has been exploited by traditional Chinese medicinalists for millennia. Since the 1980s consumers have had the options of: illegal wild gall bladders, bile extracted from caged live bears or the acid synthesised chemically. Despite these alternatives bears continue to be harvested from the wild. In this paper we use stated preference techniques using a random sample of the Chinese population to estimate demand functions for wild bear bile with and without competition from farmed bear bile. We find a willingness to pay considerably more for wild bear bile than farmed. Wild bear bile has low own price elasticity and cross price elasticity with farmed bear bile. The ability of farmed bear bile to reduce demand for wild bear bile is at best limited and, at prevailing prices, may be close to zero or have the opposite effect. The demand functions estimated suggest that the own price elasticity of wild bear bile is lower when competing with farmed bear bile than when it is the only option available. This means that the incumbent product may actually sell more items at a higher price when competing than when alone in the market. This finding may be of broader interest to behavioural economists as we argue that one explanation may be that as product choice increases price has less impact on decision making. For the wildlife farming debate this indicates that at some prices the introduction of farmed competition might increase the demand for the wild product