ODD Updated

An update to Volker Grimm and colleagues\' Overview, Design concepts and Details (ODD) protocol for documenting individual and agent based models (I/ABM) has recently been published in Ecological Modelling. This renames the \'State variables and scales\' element to \'Entities, state variables and scales\', and the \'Input\' element to \'Input data\', introduces two new Design concepts (\'Basic principles\' and \'Learning\'), and renames another (\'Fitness\' is now generalised to \'Objectives\'). The Design concepts element can now also be shortened such that it is not required to include any design concept that is irrelevant to the model, and expanded to include new design concepts more appropriate to the model being described. Other clarifications of intentions in the original protocol have been made.ODD, Individual Based Models, Agent Based Models, Replication, Documentation

Is Your Model Susceptible to Floating-Point Errors?

This paper provides a framework that highlights the features of computer models that make them especially vulnerable to floating-point errors, and suggests ways in which the impact of such errors can be mitigated. We focus on small floating-point errors because these are most likely to occur, whilst still potentially having a major influence on the outcome of the model. The significance of small floating-point errors in computer models can often be reduced by applying a range of different techniques to different parts of the code. Which technique is most appropriate depends on the specifics of the particular numerical situation under investigation. We illustrate the framework by applying it to six example agent-based models in the literature.Floating Point Arithmetic, Floating Point Errors, Agent Based Modelling, Computer Modelling, Replication

Using Qualitative Evidence to Enhance an Agent-Based Modelling System for Studying Land Use Change

This paper describes and evaluates a process of using qualitative field research data to extend the pre-existing FEARLUS agent-based modelling system through enriching its ontological capabilities, but without a deep level of involvement of the stakeholders in designing the model itself. Use of qualitative research in agent-based models typically involves protracted and expensive interaction with stakeholders; consequently gathering the valuable insights that qualitative methods could provide is not always feasible. At the same time, many researchers advocate building completely new models for each scenario to be studied, violating one of the supposed advantages of the object-oriented programming languages in which many such systems are built: that of code reuse. The process described here uses coded interviews to identify themes suggesting changes to an existing model, the assumptions behind which are then checked with respondents. We find this increases the confidence with which the extended model can be applied to the case study, with a relatively small commitment required on the part of respondents.Agent-Based Modelling, Land Use/Cover Change, Qualitative Research, Interdisciplinary Research

The CEDSS model of direct domestic energy demand

This paper describes the design, implementation and testing of the CEDSS model of direct domestic energy demand, and the first results of its use to produce estimates of future demand under a range of scenarios. CEDSS simulates direct domestic energy demand at within communities of approximately 200 households. The scenarios explored differ in the economic conditions assumed, and policy measures adopted at national level

When and How to Imitate Your Neighbours: Lessons from and for FEARLUS

This paper summarises some previously published work on imitation, experimentation (or innovation) and aspiration thresholds using the FEARLUS modelling system and reports new work with FEARLUS extending these studies. Results are discussed in the context of existing literature on imitation and innovation in related contexts. A form of imitation in which land uses are selected on the criterion of their recent performance within the neighbourhood of the land parcel concerned (called here 'Best-mean Imitation'), outperforms comparably simple forms of imitation in a wide range of FEARLUS Environments. However, the choice of criterion is shown to interact with both the way the criterion is applied, and the land manager's aspiration threshold: the level of return with which they are satisfied. The implications of work with FEARLUS for the broader bodies of research discussed, and vice versa, are considered.Imitation, Innovation, Aspiration, Land-Use, Spatio-Temporal Heterogeneity

A Semantic Grid Service for Experimentation with an Agent-Based Model of Land-Use Change

Agent-based models, perhaps more than other models, feature large numbers of parameters and potentially generate vast quantities of results data. This paper shows through the FEARLUS-G project (an ESRC e-Social Science Initiative Pilot Demonstrator Project) how deploying an agent-based model on the Semantic Grid facilitates international collaboration on investigations using such a model, and contributes to establishing rigorous working practices with agent-based models as part of good science in social simulation. The experimental workflow is described explicitly using an ontology, and a Semantic Grid service with a web interface implements the workflow. Users are able to compare their parameter settings and results, and relate their work with the model to wider scientific debate.Agent-Based Social Simulation, Experiments, Ontologies, Replication, Semantic Grid

Exascale Agent-Based Modelling for Policy Evaluation in Real-Time (ExAMPLER)

Exascale computing can potentially revolutionise the way in which we design and build agent-based models (ABM) through, for example, enabling scaling up, as well as robust calibration and validation. At present, there is no exascale computing operating with ABM (that we are aware of), but pockets of work using High Performance Computing (HPC). While exascale computing is expected to become more widely available towards the latter half of this decade, the ABM community is largely unaware of the requirements for exascale computing for agent-based modelling to support policy evaluation. This project will engage with the ABM community to understand what computing resources are currently used, what we need (both in terms of hardware and software) and to set out a roadmap by which to make it happen

Food and Nutrition Security under Global Trade : A relation-driven agent-based global trade model

Acknowledgements The Scottish Government’s Environment, Agriculture and Food Strategic Research Portfolio and the Belmont Forum/FACCE-JPI (NERC grant number NE/M021327/1) funded this research. We would like to thank two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions, which help us greatly improve the paper.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Social dilemmas: what if not everybody knows that everybody knows that everybody is rational?

In this paper social dilemmas are modelled as two-player games. In particular we model the Prisoner’s Dilemma, Chicken and Stag Hunt. When modelling these games we assume that players adapt their behaviour according to their experience and look for outcomes that have proved to be satisfactory in the past. These ideas are investigated by conducting several experiments with an agent-based simulation model in which agents use a simple form of case-based reasoning. It is shown that cooperation can emerge from the interaction of selfish case-based reasoners. In determining how often cooperation occurs, not only what Agents end up doing in any given situation is important, but also the process of learning what to do can crucially influence the final outcome. Agents’ aspiration thresholds play an important role in that learning process. It is also found that case-based reasoners find it easier to cooperate in Chicken than in the Prisoner’s Dilemma and Stag Hunt