Why bayesian “evidence for H1” in one condition and bayesian “evidence for H0” in another condition does not mean good-enough bayesian evidence for a difference between the conditions

Psychologists are often interested in whether an independent variable has a different effect in condition A than in condition B. To test such a question, one needs to directly compare the effect of that variable in the two conditions (i.e., test the interaction). Yet many researchers tend to stop when they find a significant test in one condition and a nonsignificant test in the other condition, deeming this as sufficient evidence for a difference between the two conditions. In this Tutorial, we aim to raise awareness of this inferential mistake when Bayes factors are used with conventional cutoffs to draw conclusions. For instance, some researchers might falsely conclude that there must be good-enough evidence for the interaction if they find good-enough Bayesian evidence for the alternative hypothesis, H1, in condition A and good-enough Bayesian evidence for the null hypothesis, H0, in condition B. The case study we introduce highlights that ignoring the test of the interaction can lead to unjustified conclusions and demonstrates that the principle that any assertion about the existence of an interaction necessitates the direct comparison of the conditions is as true for Bayesian as it is for frequentist statistics. We provide an R script of the analyses of the case study and a Shiny app that can be used with a 2 × 2 design to develop intuitions on this issue, and we introduce a rule of thumb with which one can estimate the sample size one might need to have a well-powered design

Von Koch and Thue-Morse revisited

We revisit the relation between the von Koch curve and the Thue-Morse sequence given in a recent paper of Ma and Goldener by relating their study to papers written by Coquet and Dekking at the beginning of the 80s. We also emphasize that more general links between fractal objects and automatic sequences can be found in the literature.Comment: Slight changes on the first version. Accepted by "Fractals

Protocol for a randomized controlled trial examining multilevel prediction of response to behavioral activation and exposure-based therapy for generalized anxiety disorder.

BACKGROUND:Only 40-60% of patients with generalized anxiety disorder experience long-lasting improvement with gold standard psychosocial interventions. Identifying neurobehavioral factors that predict treatment success might provide specific targets for more individualized interventions, fostering more optimal outcomes and bringing us closer to the goal of "personalized medicine." Research suggests that reward and threat processing (approach/avoidance behavior) and cognitive control may be important for understanding anxiety and comorbid depressive disorders and may have relevance to treatment outcomes. This study was designed to determine whether approach-avoidance behaviors and associated neural responses moderate treatment response to exposure-based versus behavioral activation therapy for generalized anxiety disorder. METHODS/DESIGN:We are conducting a randomized controlled trial involving two 10-week group-based interventions: exposure-based therapy or behavioral activation therapy. These interventions focus on specific and unique aspects of threat and reward processing, respectively. Prior to and after treatment, participants are interviewed and undergo behavioral, biomarker, and neuroimaging assessments, with a focus on approach and avoidance processing and decision-making. Primary analyses will use mixed models to examine whether hypothesized approach, avoidance, and conflict arbitration behaviors and associated neural responses at baseline moderate symptom change with treatment, as assessed using the Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 item scale. Exploratory analyses will examine additional potential treatment moderators and use data reduction and machine learning methods. DISCUSSION:This protocol provides a framework for how studies may be designed to move the field toward neuroscience-informed and personalized psychosocial treatments. The results of this trial will have implications for approach-avoidance processing in generalized anxiety disorder, relationships between levels of analysis (i.e., behavioral, neural), and predictors of behavioral therapy outcome. TRIAL REGISTRATION:The study was retrospectively registered within 21 days of first participant enrollment in accordance with FDAAA 801 with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02807480. Registered on June 21, 2016, before results

Shock Temperature of Stainless Steel and a High Pressure - High Temperature Constraint on Thermal Diffusivity of Al_2O_3

Time dependent shock temperatures were measured for stainless steel (SS) films in contact with transparent anvils. The anvil/window material was the same as the driver material so that there would be symmetric heat flow from the sample. Inferred Hugoniot temperatures, T_h , of 5800–7500 K at 232–321 GPa are consistent with previous measurements in SS. Temperatures at the film‐anvil interface (T_i ), which are more directly measured than T_h , indicate that T_i did not decrease measurably during the approximately 250 ns that the shock wave was in Al_2O_3 or LiF anvils. Thus an upper bound is obtained for the thermal diffusivity of Al_2O_3 at the metal/anvil interface at 230 GPa and 6000K of κ≤0.00096 cm_2/s. This is a factor of 17 lower than previously calculated values, resulting in a decrease of the inferred T_h by 730 k. The observed shock temperatures are combined with temperatures calculated from measured Hugoniots and are used to calculate thermal conductivities of Al_2O_3. Also we note that since there was no measurable intensity decrease during the time when the shock wave propagated through the window, we infer from this that Al_2O_3 remained transparent while in the shocked state. Thus sapphire is a good window material to at least 250 GPa for shock temperature measurements for metals

Shock temperature measurements in metals: New results for an Fe alloy

The temperature of a Fe-Cr-Ni alloy (304 stainless steel) has been measured during shock compression using a high-speed radiometric technique. Experiments were performed on high-quality thick films deposited on sapphire and LiF windows. The samples had no observable porosity or defects and closely meet the ideal criteria for shock temperature measurements. Data obtained with both Al_2O_3 and LiF windows are internally consistent, indicating that they remain transparent to high pressures and are thus suitable windows for shock temperature measurements. Our data yield stainless steel melting temperatures ranging from 4570±310K at 138 GPa to 5710±340 K at 215 GPa, and additionally provide bounds on the initial Hugoniot temperatures of the sample between 5600±340 K at 234 GPa (near the solidus) and 6580±440 K at 283 (in the liquid field). Taken together, these data define a smooth curve for melting of the alloy up to 271 GPa and 5860 K, which should represent a point on the Iiquidus. Melting along the Hugoniot begins at approximately 234 GPa and 5600 K, as compared with 242 GPa and 6400 K for pure Fe. At the pressure of the inner core-outer core boundary, the melting point of 304 stainless steel is lower than that of pure Fe by ≈ 1450 K, as compared with only 110 K at 1 atm. These results demonstrate that upon alloying with Ni and Cr the melting point depression of Fe and thus material likely to comprise the inner core increases with increasing pressure

NASA's Advanced Radioisotope Power Conversion Technology Development Status

NASA's Advanced Radioisotope Power Systems (ARPS) project is developing the next generation of radioisotope power conversion technologies that will enable future missions that have requirements that cannot be met by either photovoltaic systems or by current radioisotope power systems (RPSs). Requirements of advanced RPSs include high efficiency and high specific power (watts/kilogram) in order to meet future mission requirements with less radioisotope fuel and lower mass so that these systems can meet requirements for a variety of future space applications, including continual operation surface missions, outer-planetary missions, and solar probe. These advances would enable a factor of 2 to 4 decrease in the amount of fuel required to generate electrical power. Advanced RPS development goals also include long-life, reliability, and scalability. This paper provides an update on the contractual efforts under the Radioisotope Power Conversion Technology (RPCT) NASA Research Announcement (NRA) for research and development of Stirling, thermoelectric, and thermophotovoltaic power conversion technologies. The paper summarizes the current RPCT NRA efforts with a brief description of the effort, a status and/or summary of the contractor's key accomplishments, a discussion of upcoming plans, and a discussion of relevant system-level benefits and implications. The paper also provides a general discussion of the benefits from the development of these advanced power conversion technologies and the eventual payoffs to future missions (discussing system benefits due to overall improvements in efficiency, specific power, etc.)

Major Depressive Disorder Among Older African Americans, Caribbean Blacks, And Non‐Hispanic Whites: Secondary Analysis Of The National Survey Of American Life

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/98298/1/da22041.pd

Tourist choice processing: evaluating decision rules and methods of their measurement

A detailed understanding of decision rules is essential in order to better explain consumption behavior, yet the variety of decision rules used have been somewhat neglected in tourism research. This study adopts an innovative method, greedoid analysis, to estimate a noncompensatory type of decision rule known as lexicographic by aspect (LBA). It is quite different from the weighted additive (WADD) model commonly assumed in tourism studies. By utilizing an experimental research design, this study enables the evaluation of the two types of decision rules regarding their predictive and explanatory power. Additionally, we introduce a novel evaluation indicator (“cost”), which allows further investigation of the heterogeneity in the use of decision rules. The results suggest that although the out-of-sample accuracy is lower, the LBA model has a better explanatory performance on respondents’ preference order. Moreover, the different perspective provided by the LBA model is useful for obtaining managerial implications

The Interblink Interval in Normal and Dry Eye Subjects

Purpose: Our aim was to extend the concept of blink patterns from average interblink interval (IBI) to other aspects of the distribution of IBI. We hypothesized that this more comprehensive approach would better discriminate between normal and dry eye subjects. Methods: Blinks were captured over 10 minutes for ten normal and ten dry eye subjects while viewing a standardized televised documentary. Fifty-five blinks were analyzed for each of the 20 subjects. Means, standard deviations, and autocorrelation coefficients were calculated utilizing a single random effects model fit to all data points and a diagnostic model was subsequently fit to predict probability of a subject having dry eye based on these parameters. Results: Mean IBI was 5.97 seconds for normal versus 2.56 seconds for dry eye subjects (ratio: 2.33, P = 0.004). IBI variability was 1.56 times higher in normal subjects (P < 0.001), and the autocorrelation was 1.79 times higher in normal subjects (P = 0.044). With regard to the diagnostic power of these measures, mean IBI was the best dry eye versus normal classifier using receiver operating characteristics (0.85 area under curve (AUC)), followed by the standard deviation (0.75 AUC), and lastly, the autocorrelation (0.63 AUC). All three predictors combined had an AUC of 0.89. Based on this analysis, cutoffs of ≤3.05 seconds for median IBI, and ≤0.73 for the coefficient of variation were chosen to classify dry eye subjects. Conclusion: (1) IBI was significantly shorter for dry eye patients performing a visual task compared to normals; (2) there was a greater variability of interblink intervals in normal subjects; and (3) these parameters were useful as diagnostic predictors of dry eye disease. The results of this pilot study merit investigation of IBI parameters on a larger scale study in subjects with dry eye and other ocular surface disorders

Patient and public involvement in healthcare quality improvement: how organizations can help patients and professionals to collaborate

Citizens across the world are increasingly called upon to participate in healthcare improvement. It is often unclear how this can be made to work in practice. This 4- year ethnography of a UK healthcare improvement initiative showed that patients used elements of organizational culture as resources to help them collaborate with healthcare professionals. The four elements were: (1) organizational emphasis on nonhierarchical, multidisciplinary collaboration; (2) organizational staff ability to model desired behaviours of recognition and respect; (3) commitment to rapid action, including quick translation of research into practice; and (4) the constant data collection and reflection process facilitated by improvement methods