Construction of a fuel demand function portraying interfuel substitution, a system dynamics approach

Most of the recent numerical market equilibrium models of natural gas markets use imperfect competition assumptions. These models are typically embedded with an oversimplified representation of the demand side, usually a single-variable affine function, that does not capture any dynamic adjustment to past prices. To remedy this, we report an effort to construct an enhanced functional specification using the system dynamics-based model of Moxnes (1987, 1990). Thanks to a vintage representation of capital stock, this putty-clay model captures the effect of both past and current energy prices on fuel consumption. Using a re-calibrated version of this model, we first confirm the pertinence of this modeling framework to represent interfuel substitutions at different fuel prices in the industrial sector. Building on these findings, a dynamic functional specification of the demand function for natural gas is then proposed and calibrated.

A Generalized Nash-Cournot Model for the North-Western European Natural Gas Markets with a Fuel SubstitutionDemand Function: The GaMMES Model

This article presents a dynamic Generalized Nash-Cournot model to describe the evolution of the natural gas markets. The aim of this work is to provide a theoretical framework that would allow us to analyze future infrastructure and policy developments, while trying to answer some of the main criticisms addressed to Cournot-based models of natural gas markets. The major gas chain players are depicted including: producers, consumers, storage and pipeline operators, as well as intermediate local traders. Our economic structure description takes into account market power and the demand representation tries to capture the possible fuel substitution that can be made between the consumption of oil, coal and natural gas in the overall fossil energy consumption. We also take into account the long-term aspects inherent to some markets, in an endogenous way. This particularity of our description makes the model a Generalized Nash Equilibrium problem that needs to be solved using specialized mathematical techniques. Our model has been applied to represent the European natural gas market and forecast, until 2030, after a calibration process, consumption, prices, production and natural gas dependence. A comparison between our model, a more standard one that does not take into account energy substitution, and the European Commission natural gas forecasts is carried out to analyze our results. Finally, in order to illustrate the possible use of fuel substitution, we studied the evolution of the natural gas price as compared to the coal and oil prices. This paper mostly focuses on the model description.Energy markets modeling, Game theory, Generalized Nash-Cournot equilibria, Quasi-Variational Inequality

One-loop Neutron Electric Dipole Moment from Supersymmetry without R-parity

We present a detailed analysis together with exact numerical calculations on one-loop contributions to neutron electric dipole moment from supersymmetry without R-parity, focusing on the gluino, chargino, and neutralino contributions. Apart from the neglected family mixing among quarks, complete formulae are given for the various contributions, through the quark dipole operators, to which the present study is restricted. We discuss the structure and main features of the R-parity violating contributions and the interplay between the R-parity conserving and violating parameters. In particular, the parameter combination $\mu_i^*\lambda^{\prime}_{i11}$, under the optimal parametrization adopted, is shown to be solely responsible for the R-parity violating contributions in the supersymmetric loop diagrams. While $\mu_i^*\lambda^{\prime}_{i11}$ could bear a complex phase, the latter is not necessary to have a R-parity violating contribution.Comment: 43 pages Revtex with 15 eps- and 4 ps- figure files incoporated; proofread version to be published in Phys. Rev.

Fault diagnosis and abnormality detection of lithium-ion battery packs based on statistical distribution

© 2020 Elsevier B.V. Lithium-ion battery packs are widely deployed as power sources in transportation electrification solutions. To ensure safe and reliable operation of battery packs, it is of critical importance to monitor operation status and diagnose the running faults in a timely manner. This study investigates a novel fault diagnosis and abnormality detection method for battery packs of electric scooters based on statistical distribution of operation data that are stored in the cloud monitoring platform. According to the battery current and scooter speed, the operation states of electric scooters are clarified, and the diagnosis coefficient is determined based on the Gaussian distribution to highlight the parameter variation in each state. On this basis, the K-means clustering algorithm, the Z-score method and 3σ screening approach are exploited to detect and locate the abnormal cells. By analyzing the abnormalities hidden beneath the external measurement and calculating the fault frequency of each cell in pack, the proposed algorithm can identify the faulty type and locate the faulty cell in a timely manner. Experimental results validate that the proposed method can accurately diagnose faults and monitor the status of battery packs. This theoretical study with practical implications shows the promising research direction of combining data mining technologies with machine learning methods for fault diagnosis and safety management of complex dynamical systems

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Endogenizing long-term contracts in gas market models

Up to now, the European natural gas trade was dominated by bilateral long-term upstream agreements between producers and midstreamers that fixed a minimum volume to be exchanged (Take Or Pay) and a price formula that was usually indexed on oil products prices. These arrangements were believed to allow: i) market risk sharing between the producer (who takes the price risk) and the midstreamer (who takes the volume risk) as well as ii) risk hedging since oil is considered as a trusted commodity by investors. The fall of the European demand combined with the increase of the oil price favored the emergence of a gas volume bubble that caused net losses for most of the European midstreamers who were bound by long-term agreements. As a result, some energy economists brought forward the idea of indexing contracts on gas spot prices. In this paper, we present an equilibrium model that endogenously captures the contracting behavior of both the producer and the midstreamer who strive to hedge their profit-related risk. The players choose between gas forward and oil-indexed contracts. Using the model we show that i) contracting can reduce the trade risk of both the producer and midstreamer, ii) oil-indexed contracts should be signed only when oil and gas spot prices are well correlated, otherwise, these contracts hold less interest for risk mitigation, iii) contracts are more needed when the upstream cost structure is CAPEX driven and iv) a too risk-averse behavior of the midstreamer might deprive upstream investments and the downstream consumer surplus

Modeling natural gas markets in Europe with an oligopolistic approach : the GaMMES model and some applications

Cette thèse étudie l’évolution des marchés du gaz naturel en Europe jusqu’en 2035 en utilisant les outils de la modélisation. Le modèle proposé, intitulé GaMMES, repose sur une description oligopolistique des marchés et ses principaux avantages sont les suivants : un niveau de détail important de la structure économique de la chaîne gazière et une prise en compte endogène des contrats de long-terme en amont ainsi que de la substitution avec les produits pétroliers et le charbon, au niveau de la demande. Dans un premier temps, nous étudions la question de la sécurité d’approvisionnement en gaz en Europe et les conditions favorables à la régulation des marchés vulnérables au risque de rupture d’approvisionnement, notamment de la part de la Russie. Trois études de cas sont proposées selon le degré de dépendance et la nature de régulation en place : le marché allemand des années 1980 et les marchés actuels de la Bulgarie et de l’Espagne. Nous étudions en particulier l’évolution des caractéristiques des marchés en fonction du risque de rupture et le type de régulation à mettre en place afin d’assurer l’optimalité du bien-être social. Ensuite, nous proposons un modèle de type systèmes dynamiques afin de prendre en compte la substitution énergétique entre le charbon, le pétrole et le gaz naturel. Notre approche permet d’estimer une nouvelle forme fonctionnelle de la fonction de demande pour le gaz naturel, qui englobe à la fois la substitution énergétique et les inerties de consommation dues aux investissements des usagers finaux. Dans un troisième temps, nous utilisons cette fonction de demande dans un modèle d’équilibre partiel des marchés du gaz naturel en Europe. Le modèle GaMMES, écrit sous forme de problème de complémentarité, représente les principaux acteurs de l’industrie du gaz naturel en considérant leurs interactions stratégiques et les pouvoirs de marchés. Il a été appliqué au marché du gaz naturel en Europe du nord-est afin d’étudier l’évolution, jusqu’en 2035, de la consommation, des prix spot, des prix et volumes long-terme, de la production et de la dépendance par rapport aux imports étrangers. Finalement, nous proposons une extension stochastique du modèle GaMMES afin d’analyser l’impact de la forte fluctuation du prix du Brent sur les marchés gaziers. Une étude économétrique a été menée afin de calculer la loi de probabilité du prix du pétrole, lorsqu’il est modélisé en tant que variable aléatoire, dans le but de construire et pondérer l’arbre des scénarii. Les résultats permettent de comprendre comment l’aléa modifie les comportements stratégiques des acteurs, notamment au niveau des contrats de long-terme. Enfin, la valeur de la solution stochastique est calculée afin de quantifier l’importance de la prise en compte des fluctuations du prix du pétrole pour chaque acteur de la chaîne.This thesis studies the evolution of the natural gas markets in Europe, until 2035, using optimization theory tools. The model we develop, named GaMMES, is based on an oligopolistic description of the markets. Its main advantages are the following: we consider an important level of detail in the economic structure of the gas chain and we endogenously take into account long-term contracts in the upstream as well as energy substitution between gas, oil, and coal in the demand. In the first part of this thesis, we study the issue of security of supply in Europe and the conditions under which it is necessary to regulate the gas markets that are strongly dependent on foreign imports. Three case studies are then presented, regarding the level of dependence and the markets' specificities: the German gas trade of the 1980s and the current Spanish and Bulgarian markets. We study in particular the evolution of the markets' outcome as a function of the supply disruption probability and the kind of regulation to implement in order to maximize the social welfare. In the second part, we develop a system dynamics model in order to capture fuel substitution between oil, coal, and natural gas. Our approach allows one to calculate a new functional form of the demand function for natural gas that contains energy substitution and consumption inertia effects due to end-users' investments. In the third part, we take advantage of our demand function and use it in a partial equilibrium model of natural gas markets in Europe. The GaMMES model, when written as a complementarity problem, describes the principal gas chain actors as well as their strategic interactions and market power. It was applied to the northwestern European gas trade to analyze the evolution of consumption, spot and long-term contract prices and volumes, production, and natural gas dependence, until 2035. In the last part, we present a stochastic extension of the GaMMES model in order to study the impact of the strong Brent price fluctuation on the gas markets. An econometric analysis allowed us to calculate the probability law of the oil price, when taken as a random variable, in order to construct the scenario tree and estimate its weights. Our results show how uncertainty changes the strategic behavior, in particular for the long-term contracting activity. Finally, the value of the stochastic solution is calculated to quantify the importance of taking into account randomness in the optimization programs of the gas chain actors

Study of the evolution of the northwestern European natural gas markets using S-GaMMES

This article presents an application of S-GaMMES in order to study the evolution of the natural gas trade in northwestern Europe. S-GaMMES is a stochastic dynamic Generalized Nash-Cournot model that describes the evolution of the natural gas markets. The major gas chain players are depicted including: producers, consumers, storage, and pipeline operators, as well as intermediate local traders. The gas demand is made random because of the oil price fluctuations. The model has been applied to represent the northwestern European natural gas market and to forecast, until 2035, after a calibration process, consumption, prices, production, and long-term contracts prices and volumes in the different scenarios. Finally, we defined and calculated the value of stochastic solution adapted to our model.Energy markets modeling, Game theory, Generalized Nash-Cournot equilibria, Quasi-Variational Inequality, Equilibrium problems, Stochastic programing.

A stochastic generalized Nash-Cournot model for the northwestern European natural gas markets with a fuel substitution demand function: The S-GaMMES model

This article presents a stochastic dynamic Generalized Nash-Cournot model to describe the evolution of the natural gas markets. The major gas chain players are depicted including: producers, consumers, storage, and pipeline operators, as well as intermediate local traders. Our economic structure description takes into account market power and the demand representation tries to capture the possible fuel substitution that can be made between the consumption of oil, coal, and natural gas in the overall fossil energy consumption. The demand is made random because of the oil price fluctuations. We take into account the long-term aspects inherent to some markets, in an endogenous way. This particularity of our description makes the model a Generalized Nash Equilibrium problem that needs to be solved using specialized mathematical techniques. The model has been applied to represent the European natural gas market and to forecast, until 2035, after a calibration process, consumption, prices, production, and long-term contract prices and volumes. Finally, we defined and calculated the value of stochastic solution adapted to our model.Energy markets modeling, Game theory, Generalized Nash-Cournot equilibria, Quasi-Variational Inequality, Equilibrium problems, Stochastic programing.

Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market, some model-based insights: Cahiers de l'Economie, Série Recherche, n° 79

In this paper, we analyze the impact of uncertain disruptions in gas supply upon gas retailer contracting behavior and consequent price and welfare implications in a gas market characterized by long-term gas contracts using a static Cournot model. In order to most realistically describe the economical situation, our representation divides the market into two stages: the upstream market that links, by means of long-term contracts, producers in exporting countries (Russia, Algeria, etc.) to local retailers who bring gas to the consuming countries to satisfy local demands in the downstream market. Disruption costs are modeled using short-run demand functions. First we mathematically develop a general model and write the associated KKT conditions, then we propose some case studies, under iso-elasticity assumptions, for the long–short-run inverse-demand curves in order to predict qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of supply disruptions on Western European gas trade. In the second part, we study in detail the German gas market of the 1980s to explain the supply choices of the German retailer, and we derive interesting conclusions and insights concerning the amounts and prices of natural gas brought to the market. The last part of the paper is dedicated to a study of the Bulgarian gas market, which is greatly dependent on the Russian gas supplies and hence very sensitive to interruption risks. Some interesting conclusions are derived concerning the necessity to economically regulate the market, by means of gas amounts control, if the disruption probability is high enough