An Evaluation of CAPE Tendency in Tornado Outbreaks

Previous studies (e.g., Rasmussen, 2003; Thompson et al., 2003) have examined the impact that instability has on the occurrence of tornadic supercells. However, few studies (e.g., Calas et al., 2000) have examined the impact that the rate of destabilization has on the development of severe convection. Utilizing a CAPE tendency equation derived by Emanuel (1994), this study examines the impact of the rate of atmospheric destabilization on the severity of convection. Comparing six hour analyses of CAPE tendency with observed tornado tracks from the 4-6 May 2007, 5-6 February 2008, and 17 June 2010 tornado outbreaks reveals a potential correlation between CAPE tendency and the occurrence of tornadic supercells. These positive results highlight the need for future research to investigate the impact of CAPE tendency on the severity of convection

Use of ZDR columns for early detection of severe convection within the operational radar network of the United Kingdom

Differential reflectivity () columns were observed using a Met Office three‐dimensional radar composite. An algorithm for automatic detection of columns was developed, based on dB and dBZ. Across three case days, detected columns were found to precede severe convection in tracked convective cells with a range of lead times from 0 to 20 min depending on the case day. Requiring maxima above 1.4 dB and 30 dBZ of and respectively was an appropriate second condition for all three cases although the skill in the early detection of severe convection varied across case days. Despite the high probability of detections, the high false alarm rate accompanied by low critical success index and data latency limit performance based on the three cases considered in this study. Nevertheless, the ability to detect columns in operational radar data with a useful lead time prior to severe convection in certain conditions is a promising development towards advancing nowcasting of severe convection in the United Kingdom

Optimizing sequencing protocols for leaderboard metagenomics by combining long and short reads.

As metagenomic studies move to increasing numbers of samples, communities like the human gut may benefit more from the assembly of abundant microbes in many samples, rather than the exhaustive assembly of fewer samples. We term this approach leaderboard metagenome sequencing. To explore protocol optimization for leaderboard metagenomics in real samples, we introduce a benchmark of library prep and sequencing using internal references generated by synthetic long-read technology, allowing us to evaluate high-throughput library preparation methods against gold-standard reference genomes derived from the samples themselves. We introduce a low-cost protocol for high-throughput library preparation and sequencing

Improvements in forecasting intense rainfall: results from the FRANC (forecasting rainfall exploiting new data assimilation techniques and novel observations of convection) project

The FRANC project (Forecasting Rainfall exploiting new data Assimilation techniques and Novel observations of Convection) has researched improvements in numerical weather prediction of convective rainfall via the reduction of initial condition uncertainty. This article provides an overview of the project’s achievements. We highlight new radar techniques: correcting for attenuation of the radar return; correction for beams that are over 90% blocked by trees or towers close to the radar; and direct assimilation of radar reflectivity and refractivity. We discuss the treatment of uncertainty in data assimilation: new methods for estimation of observation uncertainties with novel applications to Doppler radar winds, Atmospheric Motion Vectors, and satellite radiances; a new algorithm for implementation of spatially-correlated observation error statistics in operational data assimilation; and innovative treatment of moist processes in the background error covariance model. We present results indicating a link between the spatial predictability of convection and convective regimes, with potential to allow improved forecast interpretation. The research was carried out as a partnership between University researchers and the Met Office (UK). We discuss the benefits of this approach and the impact of our research, which has helped to improve operational forecasts for convective rainfall event

Clogging the machinery: the BBC's experiment in science coordination, 1949–1953

In 1949, physicist Mark Oliphant criticised the BBC’s handling of science in a letter to the Director General William Haley. It initiated a chain of events which led to the experimental appointment of a science adviser, Henry Dale, to improve the ‘coordination’ of science broadcasts. The experiment failed, but the episode revealed conflicting views of the BBC’s responsibility towards science held by scientists and BBC staff. For the scientists, science had a special status, both as knowledge and as an activity, which in their view obligated the BBC to make special arrangements for it. BBC staff, however, had their own professional procedures which they were unwilling to abandon. The events unfolded within a few years of the end of the Second World War, when social attitudes to science had been coloured by the recent conflict, and when the BBC itself was under scrutiny from the William Beveridge’s Committee. The BBC was also embarking on new initiatives, notably the revival of adult education. These contextual factors bear on the story, which is about the relationship between a public service broadcaster and the external constituencies it relies on, but must appear to remain independent from. The article therefore extends earlier studies showing how external bodies have attempted to manipulate the inner workings of the BBC to their own advantage (e.g. those by Doctor and Karpf) by looking at the little-researched area of science broadcasting. The article is largely based on unpublished archive documents

Reciprocity as a foundation of financial economics

This paper argues that the subsistence of the fundamental theorem of contemporary financial mathematics is the ethical concept ‘reciprocity’. The argument is based on identifying an equivalence between the contemporary, and ostensibly ‘value neutral’, Fundamental Theory of Asset Pricing with theories of mathematical probability that emerged in the seventeenth century in the context of the ethical assessment of commercial contracts in a framework of Aristotelian ethics. This observation, the main claim of the paper, is justified on the basis of results from the Ultimatum Game and is analysed within a framework of Pragmatic philosophy. The analysis leads to the explanatory hypothesis that markets are centres of communicative action with reciprocity as a rule of discourse. The purpose of the paper is to reorientate financial economics to emphasise the objectives of cooperation and social cohesion and to this end, we offer specific policy advice

Modeling screening, prevention, and delaying of Alzheimer's disease: an early-stage decision analytic model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Alzheimer's Disease (AD) affects a growing proportion of the population each year. Novel therapies on the horizon may slow the progress of AD symptoms and avoid cases altogether. Initiating treatment for the underlying pathology of AD would ideally be based on biomarker screening tools identifying pre-symptomatic individuals. Early-stage modeling provides estimates of potential outcomes and informs policy development.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A time-to-event (TTE) simulation provided estimates of screening asymptomatic patients in the general population age ≥55 and treatment impact on the number of patients reaching AD. Patients were followed from AD screen until all-cause death. Baseline sensitivity and specificity were 0.87 and 0.78, with treatment on positive screen. Treatment slowed progression by 50%. Events were scheduled using literature-based age-dependent incidences of AD and death.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The base case results indicated increased AD free years (AD-FYs) through delays in onset and a reduction of 20 AD cases per 1000 screened individuals. Patients completely avoiding AD accounted for 61% of the incremental AD-FYs gained. Total years of treatment per 1000 screened patients was 2,611. The number-needed-to-screen was 51 and the number-needed-to-treat was 12 to avoid one case of AD. One-way sensitivity analysis indicated that duration of screening sensitivity and rescreen interval impact AD-FYs the most. A two-way sensitivity analysis found that for a test with an extended duration of sensitivity (15 years) the number of AD cases avoided was 6,000-7,000 cases for a test with higher sensitivity and specificity (0.90,0.90).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study yielded valuable parameter range estimates at an early stage in the study of screening for AD. Analysis identified duration of screening sensitivity as a key variable that may be unavailable from clinical trials.</p

Structural Characterization of CYP51 from Trypanosoma cruzi and Trypanosoma brucei Bound to the Antifungal Drugs Posaconazole and Fluconazole

Chagas Disease is caused by kinetoplastid protozoa Trypanosoma cruzi, whose sterols resemble those of fungi, in both composition and biosynthetic pathway. Azole inhibitors of sterol 14α-demethylase (CYP51), such as fluconazole, itraconazole, voriconazole, and posaconazole, successfully treat fungal infections in humans. Efforts have been made to translate anti-fungal azoles into a second-use application for Chagas Disease. Ravuconazole and posaconazole have been recently proposed as candidates for clinical trials with Chagas Disease patients. However, the widespread use of posaconazole for long-term treatment of chronic infections may be limited by hepatic and renal toxicity, a requirement for simultaneous intake of a fatty meal or nutritional supplement to enhance absorption, and cost. To aid our search for structurally and synthetically simple CYP51 inhibitors, we have determined the crystal structures of the CYP51 targets in T. cruzi and T. brucei, both bound to the anti-fungal drugs fluconazole or posaconazole. The structures provide a basis for a design of new drugs targeting Chagas Disease, and also make it possible to model the active site characteristics of the highly homologous Leishmania CYP51. This work provides a foundation for rational synthesis of new therapeutic agents targeting the three kinetoplastid parasites

Computational Identification of Uncharacterized Cruzain Binding Sites

Chagas disease, caused by the unicellular parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, claims 50,000 lives annually and is the leading cause of infectious myocarditis in the world. As current antichagastic therapies like nifurtimox and benznidazole are highly toxic, ineffective at parasite eradication, and subject to increasing resistance, novel therapeutics are urgently needed. Cruzain, the major cysteine protease of Trypanosoma cruzi, is one attractive drug target. In the current work, molecular dynamics simulations and a sequence alignment of a non-redundant, unbiased set of peptidase C1 family members are used to identify uncharacterized cruzain binding sites. The two sites identified may serve as targets for future pharmacological intervention

Genetic, transcriptomic, histological, and biochemical analysis of progressive supranuclear palsy implicates glial activation and novel risk genes

Progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP), a rare Parkinsonian disorder, is characterized by problems with movement, balance, and cognition. PSP differs from Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and other diseases, displaying abnormal microtubule-associated protein tau by both neuronal and glial cell pathologies. Genetic contributors may mediate these differences; however, the genetics of PSP remain underexplored. Here we conduct the largest genome-wide association study (GWAS) of PSP which includes 2779 cases (2595 neuropathologically-confirmed) and 5584 controls and identify six independent PSP susceptibility loci with genome-wide significant (P &lt; 5 × 10−8) associations, including five known (MAPT, MOBP, STX6, RUNX2, SLCO1A2) and one novel locus (C4A). Integration with cell type-specific epigenomic annotations reveal an oligodendrocytic signature that might distinguish PSP from AD and Parkinson’s disease in subsequent studies. Candidate PSP risk gene prioritization using expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) identifies oligodendrocyte-specific effects on gene expression in half of the genome-wide significant loci, and an association with C4A expression in brain tissue, which may be driven by increased C4A copy number. Finally, histological studies demonstrate tau aggregates in oligodendrocytes that colocalize with C4 (complement) deposition. Integrating GWAS with functional studies, epigenomic and eQTL analyses, we identify potential causal roles for variation in MOBP, STX6, RUNX2, SLCO1A2, and C4A in PSP pathogenesis.</p