Technological Threat Attribution, Trust and Confidence, and the Contestability of National Security Policy

The world has been asked to believe that China is a source of cyberthreat and that Russia is meddling in U.S. elections. Western populations are being asked to trust the words of intelligence agencies and world leaders that these unspecified technological threats are real. The oftenclassified nature of the threat results in governments not being able to provide the public with an evidence base for the threat attribution. This presents a social scientific crisis where without substantive evidence the public is asked to trust and have confidence in a particular technological threat attribution claim without any further assurance. It is sensible for the public to ask whose security claim should be believed and why? Likewise, it seems a critical social responsibility for security policy makers and academia to first acknowledge this conundrum and then strive to develop frameworks to better understand the trust and confidence challenges around technological threat attribution. This talk draws on New Zealand as a sociological case study to illustrate where and if a technological threat attribution and trust and confidence challenge might be evident in the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet’s 2018 National Cyber Strategy refresh and the New Zealand Defence Force’s 2018 Strategic Defense Policy Statement. This case study is used to sketch out a broader project focusing on how the contestability of national security strategy and government security discourse can present specific trust and confidence challenges for both the public and government, and how we might begin to address these challengesfals

Defining and simulating open-ended novelty: requirements, guidelines, and challenges

The open-endedness of a system is often defined as a continual production of novelty. Here we pin down this concept more fully by defining several types of novelty that a system may exhibit, classified as variation, innovation, and emergence. We then provide a meta-model for including levels of structure in a system’s model. From there, we define an architecture suitable for building simulations of open-ended novelty-generating systems and discuss how previously proposed systems fit into this framework. We discuss the design principles applicable to those systems and close with some challenges for the community

Efficacy of self-monitored blood pressure, with or without telemonitoring, for titration of antihypertensive medication (TASMINH4): an unmasked randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Studies evaluating titration of antihypertensive medication using self-monitoring give contradictory findings and the precise place of telemonitoring over self-monitoring alone is unclear. The TASMINH4 trial aimed to assess the efficacy of self-monitored blood pressure, with or without telemonitoring, for antihypertensive titration in primary care, compared with usual care. METHODS: This study was a parallel randomised controlled trial done in 142 general practices in the UK, and included hypertensive patients older than 35 years, with blood pressure higher than 140/90 mm Hg, who were willing to self-monitor their blood pressure. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to self-monitoring blood pressure (self-montoring group), to self-monitoring blood pressure with telemonitoring (telemonitoring group), or to usual care (clinic blood pressure; usual care group). Randomisation was by a secure web-based system. Neither participants nor investigators were masked to group assignment. The primary outcome was clinic measured systolic blood pressure at 12 months from randomisation. Primary analysis was of available cases. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN 83571366. FINDINGS: 1182 participants were randomly assigned to the self-monitoring group (n=395), the telemonitoring group (n=393), or the usual care group (n=394), of whom 1003 (85%) were included in the primary analysis. After 12 months, systolic blood pressure was lower in both intervention groups compared with usual care (self-monitoring, 137·0 [SD 16·7] mm Hg and telemonitoring, 136·0 [16·1] mm Hg vs usual care, 140·4 [16·5]; adjusted mean differences vs usual care: self-monitoring alone, -3·5 mm Hg [95% CI -5·8 to -1·2]; telemonitoring, -4·7 mm Hg [-7·0 to -2·4]). No difference between the self-monitoring and telemonitoring groups was recorded (adjusted mean difference -1·2 mm Hg [95% CI -3·5 to 1·2]). Results were similar in sensitivity analyses including multiple imputation. Adverse events were similar between all three groups. INTERPRETATION: Self-monitoring, with or without telemonitoring, when used by general practitioners to titrate antihypertensive medication in individuals with poorly controlled blood pressure, leads to significantly lower blood pressure than titration guided by clinic readings. With most general practitioners and many patients using self-monitoring, it could become the cornerstone of hypertension management in primary care. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research via Programme Grant for Applied Health Research (RP-PG-1209-10051), Professorship to RJM (NIHR-RP-R2-12-015), Oxford Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care, and Omron Healthcare UK

The 2018 Strategic Defence Statement: Ten Different Views from Massey Scholars

To view the Strategic Defence Policy Statement 2018 please go here http://www.nzdf.mil.nz/corporate-documents/strategic-defence-policy-statement-2018.htmfals