Assessment of possible adverse consequences for biodiversity when planting vascular plants outside their natural range in Norway - Scientific Opinion of the Panel on Alien Organisms and Trade in Endangered species (CITES) of the Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food and Environment (VKM)

We sow or plant vascular plant species on a large scale in revegetation and restoration projects in Norway today. Some of the species used are already found in Norway, but many of the species, subspecies or populations used though native are not local, that is, they are regionally alien. A regionally alien species is a species that is native to Norway (has been in Norway since 1800) somewhere in the country, but which has been spread by humans to places in Norway where they do not occur. In theory, and according to the Biodiversity Act, it is desirable to use local seeds or plants to preserve local biodiversity. The aim of this report is to define guidelines that helps prevent the planting of vascular plant species with a high potential for negative effects on local biodiversity. It is assumed that the native or local populations are better adapted to local environmental conditions than populations from other areas or regions, and the risk of harmful genetic changes is therefore considered small when using local plant and seed sources. Arriving at a common definition for the area within which plants are “local” is difficult, though; vascular plant species are numerous (3317 species in mainland Norway, of which more than half are alien species introduced after 1800, Artdatabanken 2015), have different growth forms, different environmental requirements, and different reproductive and dispersal ecology. Even closely related vascular plant species can differ in such characteristics and hence in the extent of the "place" or “area”. The dispersal ecology of a plant species is of great importance for whether the species has genetically distinct populations within its range or not. Different strategies (wind pollination vs. insect pollination, vegetative propagation vs. seed dispersal, large seeds vs. small seeds) have an impact on the degree of gene flow between populations and thus also how locally adapted the species is in different areas. Whether the species has primarily vegetative reproduction or whether it spreads mainly by means of seeds, and whether the seed dispersal takes place ballistically, with wind or water, or by zookori (attached to animals or eaten by animals) determines how far the species can spread and how large gene flow there is between different populations. Whether the species is pollinated by wind or by the help of insects also affects the degree of gene flow differently. In Norway, there is great variation in many biophysical and ecological conditions (climate, topography, hydrology, and geology) over relatively short distances. This means that species that grow only a few meters apart can grow under different environmental conditions. This large variation in environmental conditions - on different spatial scales - can give rise to local genetic adaptation. However, plants have been moved around the landscape for several hundred years by our livestock (as seeds in fur and hooves, and in faeces) from lowland pasture to mountain pasture and along traffic arteries across the country due to the extensive transport of animals and people. Over time, this has led to expanded geographical distribution for several species and increased gene flow between populations over relatively large distances. .............publishedVersionpublishedVersio

Assessment of the risk to Norwegian biodiversity from import and keeping of crustaceans in freshwater aquaria

Introduction The Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food and Environment (VKM) was requested by the Norwegian Environment Agency to assess the risk of negative impacts to biodiversity in Norway resulting from import of crustacean decapods for keeping in freshwater aquariums. VKM was asked to 1) list species of crayfish, crabs and shrimps that are currently kept in freshwater aquaria in Norway, and species that are likely to be kept in freshwater aquaria in Norway within the next 10 years, 2) assess the ability of the species to survive under Norwegian conditions and cause impacts on ecosystems and other species, and 3) state the potential negative effects on the biological diversity of diseases caused by pathogens, regulated under the Norwegian Food Act.Methods The risk assessment, without focus on pathogens, was performed in two steps. First, we used a pre-screening toolkit to identify species of crayfish, crabs and shrimps with potential to become invasive in freshwater habitats in Norway. Each species was given an invasiveness score based on 55 questions on biogeography, ecology, and climate change. In a second step, a full risk assessment, including the potential impacts of pathogens, was conducted on those species receiving the highest invasiveness score. This assessment included questions on the organism’s probability of entry and pathways of entry, establishment and spread, potential impacts on biodiversity, and how climate change scenarios might affect the assessment. Likelyhood and confidence was assessed for each question. In conclusion, each species was designated as either low-, moderate-, or high risk. Many crustacean decapod species are confirmed or suspected carriers of pathogens that can cause mass mortality among native crustaceans. The risk posed by crustaceans as carriers of pathogens may be independent of the environmental risk that they pose through ecological interactions. Therefore, the four crustacean disease pathogens that are regulated under the Norwegian Food Act, were assessed separately. These include Aphanomyces astaci causing crayfish plague, white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) causing white spot disease, Taura syndrome virus (TSV) causing Taura syndrome, and yellow head virus genotype 1 (YHV1) causing yellow head disease. The assessments comprised questions on the pathogen’s probability of entry (as a hitchhiker organism with imported crustaceans), pathways of entry, establishment and spread, and potential impact on crustacean biodiversity. Likelihood and confidence were assessed for each question. In conclusion, each pathogen was designated as either low-, moderate-, or high risk.In a third step, we categorized the likelihood that a crustacean species introduces a pathogen associated with a high- or moderate risk into: I) known chronic carriers, II) suspected chronic carriers, III) suspected situational carrier, IV) possible pathogen transmitters, and V) no direct or circumstantial evidence for carrier status or pathogen transmission in the genus.Results Based on information from the Norwegian Pet Trade Association, the project group listed 112 taxa (mainly species and some genera) of freshwater crayfish, crabs and shrimps that are relevant for trade in Norway. These included 38 crayfish taxa, 28 crab taxa, and 45 shrimp taxa. In addition, one marine crab was included. Sixteen species of crayfish, four species of shrimps, and two species of crabs underwent a full ecological risk assessment. The probabilities of entry both into the aquarium trade in Norway, and potentially further into Norwegian nature, were based on the prevalence of the species in the aquarium trade in Norway. We assumed that all species were equally likely to escape captivity or to be released. The four pathogens regulated under the Norwegian Food Act are either known or potential hazards to biodiversity in Norway. A. astaci is already present in Norway. It is regarded among the greatest threats to European freshwater crayfish, including noble crayfish (Astacus astacus). American freshwater crayfish are either known or suspected chronic carriers of A. astaci, while several crayfish species from other continents, as well as some species of crab and shrimp, may be situational carriers. WSSV is a "non-exotic" list 2 disease. All decapods can be infected by the virus. WSSV is primarily a problem in shrimp farming in Asia, but has spread to America and more recently to Australia. WSSV can cause 100% mortality in noble crayfish at water temperatures above 20 °C. Both TSV and YHV1 are "exotic" list 1 diseases. These can infect and cause high mortality in a limited range of saltwater shrimps. There is no evidence that TSV and YHV1 pose a risk to freshwater crayfish in the Nordic climate, nor is introduction likely through aquarium trade in freshwater crustaceans. Several other pathogens that cause crustacean dirsease are listed by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE). These were briefly assessed, but not fully risk assessed.Conclusions VKM concluded that the risk of negative impacts on biodiversity caused by ecological interactions following import and private keeping of crayfish is high for Faxonius virilis, Faxonius spp., Procambarus clarkii, P. virginalis, and Pacifastacus leniusculus. These species can displace native crayfish, reduce the abundance of aquatic plants, and cause cascading effects that negatively influence invertebrates, fish, and birds. They can likely establish in Norwegian nature under the current climate conditions. The risk of negative consequences is moderate (with medium confidence) for the crayfish Cambarellus patzcuarensis, Procambarus alleni, Creaserinus fodiens, Cambarellus montezumae, Cherax monticola, Cherax tenuimanus, Faxonius neglectus. Perconon gibbesi of the crabs and Neocaridina davidi and Macrobrachium rosenbergii of the shrimps were associated with a moderate risk with medium confidence. Species associated with medium risk are omnivorous keystone species that will have at least moderate ecological impact on littoral freshwater ecosystems (medium confidence) if established in dense populations. None of the species associated with medium risk are likely to establish today. However, climate change will increase the risk for establishment and resulting ecological impact. The risk for negative impacts caused by the crayfish plague pathogen Aphanomyces astaci is high with high confidence. Crayfish plague can cause up to 100% mortality, and has already eradicated several noble crayfish populations in Norway. For WSSV, the risk for negative impact is moderate with high confidence. The risks associated with TSV and YHV1 are assessed as low for Norwegian crustacean biodiversity. According to the risk assessment of pathogens and the categorization of crustacean species based on their likelihood of being carriers of A. astaci and WSSV, 25 and 13 species of crayfish are associated with a high and medium risk, respectively. Four and 25 species of crabs are associated with a medium and low risk, respectively, and 14 and 31 species of shrimps are associated with medium and low risk, respectively. Notably, all species in the named genera should be regarded as belonging to the given risk category. OIE and general literature provide information of known crustacean diseases along with known susceptible crustacean hosts. However, there is a lack of information regarding carrier status of known and unknown disease pathogens for many exotic crustaceans. In this perspective, all exotic crustaceans should be regarded as potentially infected with a known or unknown pathogen. In order to reduce the risk of spreading diseases, eggs and living or dead animals should under no circumstances be disposed of in nature. The same applies for aquarium water or any material, such as gravel or ornamental plants, that have been in contact with the animals or water in the aquarium. The current permit requirement exemption for import of freshwater organisms that can only survive at temperatures above 5 °C provides no protection against the introduction, establishment, and spread of accompanying pathogens that could cause mass mortality in Norwegian crustacean populations. Finally, we can never predict how, or from which host species, a new disease might emerge. Many pandemics and plagues result from cross-continental pathogen-host jumps often facilitated by human transport, trade, introduction, release, or escape of alien species and associated alien pathogens

Assessment of the risk to Norwegian biodiversity from import and keeping of crustaceans in freshwater aquaria. Scientific Opinion of the Panel on Alien Organisms and trade in Endangered Species (CITES) of the Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food and Environment

Key words: Risk assessment, Crayfish, Shrimps, Crabs, Climate change, Aphanomyces astaci, White spot syndrome, Alien species, Biological invasion Introduction The Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food and Environment (VKM) was requested by the Norwegian Environment Agency to assess the risk of negative impacts to biodiversity in Norway resulting from import of crustacean decapods for keeping in freshwater aquariums. VKM was asked to 1) list species of crayfish, crabs and shrimps that are currently kept in freshwater aquaria in Norway, and species that are likely to be kept in freshwater aquaria in Norway within the next 10 years, 2) assess the ability of the species to survive under Norwegian conditions and cause impacts on ecosystems and other species, and 3) state the potential negative effects on the biological diversity of diseases caused by pathogens, regulated under the Norwegian Food Act. Methods The risk assessment, without focus on pathogens, was performed in two steps. First, we used a pre-screening toolkit to identify species of crayfish, crabs and shrimps with potential to become invasive in freshwater habitats in Norway. Each species was given an invasiveness score based on 55 questions on biogeography, ecology, and climate change. In a second step, a full risk assessment, including the potential impacts of pathogens, was conducted on those species receiving the highest invasiveness score. This assessment included questions on the organism’s probability of entry and pathways of entry, establishment and spread, potential impacts on biodiversity, and how climate change scenarios might affect the assessment. Likelyhood and confidence was assessed for each question. In conclusion, each species was designated as either low-, moderate-, or high risk. Many crustacean decapod species are confirmed or suspected carriers of pathogens that can cause mass mortality among native crustaceans. The risk posed by crustaceans as carriers of pathogens may be independent of the environmental risk that they pose through ecological interactions. Therefore, the four crustacean disease pathogens that are regulated under the Norwegian Food Act, were assessed separately. These include Aphanomyces astaci causing crayfish plague, white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) causing white spot disease, Taura syndrome virus (TSV) causing Taura syndrome, and yellow head virus genotype 1 (YHV1) causing yellow head disease. The assessments comprised questions on the pathogen’s probability of entry (as a hitchhiker organism with imported crustaceans), pathways of entry, establishment and spread, and potential impact on crustacean biodiversity. Likelihood and confidence were assessed for each question. In conclusion, each pathogen was designated as either low-, moderate-, or high risk. In a third step, we categorized the likelihood that a crustacean species introduces a pathogen associated with a high- or moderate risk into: I) known chronic carriers, II) suspected chronic carriers, III) suspected situational carrier, IV) possible pathogen transmitters, and V) no direct or circumstantial evidence for carrier status or pathogen transmission in the genus. Results Based on information from the Norwegian Pet Trade Association, the project group listed 112 taxa (mainly species and some genera) of freshwater crayfish, crabs and shrimps that are relevant for trade in Norway. These included 38 crayfish taxa, 28 crab taxa, and 45 shrimp taxa. In addition, one marine crab was included. Sixteen species of crayfish, four species of shrimps, and two species of crabs underwent a full ecological risk assessment. The probabilities of entry both into the aquarium trade in Norway, and potentially further into Norwegian nature, were based on the prevalence of the species in the aquarium trade in Norway. We assumed that all species were equally likely to escape captivity or to be .........publishedVersionpublishedVersio

Assessment of the risk of negative impact on biodiversity from import and release of eggs or live fish from landlocked Atlantic salmon from Klarälven in Sweden to Trysilelva in Norway. Scientific Opinion of the Panel on Alien Organisms and Trade in Endangered Species of the Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food and Environment

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Impacts of climate change on the boreal forest ecosystem. Scientific Opinion of the Panel on Alien Organisms and Trade in Endangered species (CITES) of the Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food and Environment

Source at https://vkm.no/</a

Oil Production in a Changing : Climate An Investigation of Optimal Oil Extraction on the Norwegian Continental Shelf under Current and Potential Climate Policies

This thesis addresses the challenges of being an oil nation in a time where the world needs to combat climate changes. Emissions from fossil fuels are the dominant cause of global warming, and the need for actions to reduce the global combustion is obvious. Despite decades of international climate negotiations, the flow of emissions to the atmosphere continues to grow, and the heat continues towards new heights. Leading environmental economists now suggest restraining the supply of petroleum resources to reach targets related to climate change. We aim to study the effect today’s and potential climate policies have on oil production on the Norwegian continental shelf the next decade. Our results show that the currently announced climate policy does affect the extraction path of oil, given an expected oil price of 552.5 NOK. This is in line with similar research. We also look at the implementation of a production fee on oil. We find that the production fee will reduce resource wealth, and might change the extraction path on existing fields. The latter depends on the size of the fee. The higher estimate of 452.55 NOK per barrel causes 10 out of 11 fields in our sample to stop production. The lower estimatec fee of 25.86 NOK per barrel implies no changes to the extraction paths.nhhma

Oil Production in a Changing : Climate An Investigation of Optimal Oil Extraction on the Norwegian Continental Shelf under Current and Potential Climate Policies

This thesis addresses the challenges of being an oil nation in a time where the world needs to combat climate changes. Emissions from fossil fuels are the dominant cause of global warming, and the need for actions to reduce the global combustion is obvious. Despite decades of international climate negotiations, the flow of emissions to the atmosphere continues to grow, and the heat continues towards new heights. Leading environmental economists now suggest restraining the supply of petroleum resources to reach targets related to climate change. We aim to study the effect today’s and potential climate policies have on oil production on the Norwegian continental shelf the next decade. Our results show that the currently announced climate policy does affect the extraction path of oil, given an expected oil price of 552.5 NOK. This is in line with similar research. We also look at the implementation of a production fee on oil. We find that the production fee will reduce resource wealth, and might change the extraction path on existing fields. The latter depends on the size of the fee. The higher estimate of 452.55 NOK per barrel causes 10 out of 11 fields in our sample to stop production. The lower estimatec fee of 25.86 NOK per barrel implies no changes to the extraction paths

Status and trade assessment of parrots listed in CITES Appendix I. Scientific Opinion of the Panel on Alien Organisms and trade in endangered species (CITES)

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Status and trade assessment of parrots listed in CITES Appendix I. Scientific Opinion of the Panel on Alien Organisms and trade in endangered species (CITES)

Parrots are one of the most species-rich groups of birds of which the majority inhabits tropical and subtropical forests. Nearly one-third of parrots are threatened with extinction (IUCN categories CR, EN or VU) and more than half of the world’s parrot species are assumed to be decreasing in numbers. Parrots are popular pets on all continents, mainly due to their colourful feathers, their capacity to mimic the human voice, and their tolerance to life in captivity. More than 250 species have been traded internationally. Since the inception of CITES in 1975, trade of about 12 million live wild-sourced parrots has been registered. Currently, 55 parrot species are listed on CITES Appendix I (Norwegian CITES regulation list A) that includes the most endangered among CITES-listed animals and plants. In compliance with CITES, Norway only permits import for commercial purposes of Appendix I listed parrots bred in captivity in operations included in the Secretariat's Register (Resolution Conf. 12.10 (Rev. CoP15). Presently, 9 of the Appendix I parrot species are bred in such facilities. Import of Appendix I species to Norway requires permits both from the exporter’s CITES authority and the Norwegian Environment Agency (Norwegian CITES Management Authority). All legal transactions of CITES Appendix I listed species should be recorded in the UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC) Trade Database. However, discrepancies are common, demonstrating that the trade monitoring is not accurate. Moreover, several studies suggest that regardless of efforts to regulate trade, the global conservation situation for parrots may be worse than estimated by the IUCN species statuses. Even though habitat loss is the main threat to most parrot species, it has been suggested that priority should be given to conservation actions aimed at reducing the illegal capture of wild parrots for the pet trade. As Norway’s CITES Scientific Authority, the Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food and Environment (VKM) was assigned by the Norwegian Environment Agency to assess the status of populations and trade for Appendix I parrot species. Methods: As different trade patterns are typical for different geographic regions, the species were initially divided into three groups: Africa, Australasia and Central and South America. For species with commercial trade registered in the UNEP-WCMC trade database after year 2010 a full assessment was made. In addition, two species for which negative impact from illegal trade is suspected were also fully assessed. The assessments are based on the Norwegian Cites Regulation and Article III of the Convention and Resolution 16.7(Rev.CoP17). Information on the parrot species assessed in this report were gathered from the text accounts published by BirdLife International and Birds of the World as well as literature cited in the text. Results: VKM undertook full assessments of the population status and trade for 26 of the 55 CITES Appendix I species. The species assessments are presented as fact sheets. They each contain a brief summary of the species’ biology (name, taxonomy, distribution, life history, habitat and role in ecosystem), populations and trends, threats and conservation status, population surveillance and regulations, evaluation of legal/illegal trapping and trade, overall assessment of data quality and references. We found that the quantity, as well as quality, of the information available for the Appendix I parrot species varied much. This was the case for data on general biology, population size and trends and levels of illegal trade. For all of the 23 of species for which commercial trade was registered since 2010 in the UNEP-WCMC trade database discrepancies ........publishedVersio

Assessment of possible adverse consequences for biodiversity when planting vascular plants outside their natural range in Norway -(VKM)

The aim of this report is to define guidelines that helps prevent the planting of vascular plant species with a high potential for negative effects on local biodiversity. It is assumed that the native or local populations are better adapted to local environmental conditions than populations from other areas or regions, and the risk of harmful genetic changes is therefore considered small when using local plant and seed sources. Arriving at a common definition for the area within which plants are “local” is difficult, though; vascular plant species are numerous (3317 species in mainland Norway, of which more than half are alien species introduced after 1800, Artdatabanken 2015), have different growth forms, different environmental requirements, and different reproductive and dispersal ecology. Even closely related vascular plant species can differ in such characteristics and hence in the extent of the "place" or “area”.publishedVersio