Statistical decision problems in large scale biological experiments Final report

Statistical decision theory applied to problems associated with Martian biological exploration progra

Continuation of studies in statistical decision theory in large scale biological experiments Final report, 1 May 1965 - 31 Jul. 1966

Statistical decision theory applied to Martian atmosphere analysis, life detection experiments, and gas chromatogram measurements of n-alkane distributions in material

How many premises can an argument have?

Is it possible for an argument to have either zero premises or an infinite number of premises? I shall argue that regardless of how you conceive of arguments you should accept that an argument could have an infinite number of premises. The zero case is more complicated since the matter seems to depend not only on the metaphysics of arguments, but also the nature and function of arguing. I shall argue that at least a plausible case can be made for the possibility of zero premise arguments

Zonal-mean dynamics of extended recoveries from stratospheric sudden warmings

The recovery of the Arctic polar vortex following stratospheric sudden warmings is found to take upward of 3 months in a particular subset of cases, termed here polar-night jet oscillation (PJO) events. The anomalous zonal-mean circulation above the pole during this recovery is characterized by a persistently warm lower stratosphere, and above this a cold midstratosphere and anomalously high stratopause, which descends as the event unfolds. Composites of these events in the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model show the persistence of the lower-stratospheric anomaly is a result of strongly suppressed wave driving and weak radiative cooling at these heights. The upper-stratospheric and lower-mesospheric anomalies are driven immediately following the warming by anomalous planetary-scale eddies, following which, anomalous parameterized nonorographic and orographic gravity waves play an important role. These details are found to be robust for PJO events (as opposed to sudden warmings in general) in that many details of individual PJO events match the composite mean. Azonal-mean quasigeostrophic model on the sphere is shown to reproduce the response to the thermal and mechanical forcings produced during a PJO event. The former is well approximated by Newtonian cooling. The response can thus be considered as a transient approach to the steady-state, downward control limit. In this context, the time scale of the lower-stratospheric anomaly is determined by the transient, radiative response to the extended absence of wave driving. The extent to which the dynamics of the wave-driven descent of the stratopause can be considered analogous to the descending phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is also discussed

The Restoration of Erica verticillata

The Threatened Species Programme at the South African National Biodiversity Institute, Kirstenbosch National Botanical Garden, is integrated to include both ex situ and in situ conservation activities. Plant conservation is driven by South Africa’s Strategy for Plant Conservation which was developed in response to the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation. This case study examines the conservation of Erica verticillata (whorl heath), a flagship for threatened species at Kirstenbosch, and documents the integration of ex situ with in situ conservation at three areas on the Cape Flats. The whorl heath was thought to be extinct by 1950. Horticulturists have since rediscovered eight clones in botanic gardens worldwide, the Heather Society and commercial growers. Ex situ conservation in botanic garden collections and the Millennium Seed Bank has since allowed in situ conservation in the critically endangered Cape Flats Sand Fynbos vegetation type. The process of restoring the whorl heath presented many challenges. Initially attempts were hampered by limited available knowledge on suitable niche habitats. Pioneering work carried out at Rondevlei Nature Reserve identified the suitable habitat and this was applied in subsequent in situ work at Kenilworth Racecourse Conservation Area and at Tokai Park – the only natural areas remaining in or near this species’ historical distribution range. Successful re-establishment of this species depends upon its capacity to recruit after fire, which is an essential ecological process in the fynbos. Many clones have been in cultivation for a long time and are poor seed producers: seed production was first recorded at Rondevlei only after additional clones were planted together. Only one population (Rondevlei) to date has seen a fire and thus has recruited seedlings; however these are competing with vigorous companion plants. The study continues and is currently exploring the role of herbivory in the restoration process. The key lesson learnt to date is the need to include sustainable management of the entire ecosystem in the restoration process and not limit it to single species. Success in restoring a species depends upon a healthy stand of the vegetation type in place, along with pollinators and other key fauna and other natural ecosystem processes. It is recommended that successful re- establishment of a species in fynbos requires the reintroduced population to survive three fire cycles

Past and future conditions for polar stratospheric cloud formation simulated by the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model

We analyze here the polar stratospheric temperatures in an ensemble of three 150-year integrations of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM), an interactive chemistry-climate model which simulates ozone depletion and recovery, as well as climate change. A key motivation is to understand possible mechanisms for the observed trend in the extent of conditions favourable for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation in the Arctic winter lower stratosphere. We find that in the Antarctic winter lower stratosphere, the low temperature extremes required for PSC formation increase in the model as ozone is depleted, but remain steady through the twenty-first century as the warming from ozone recovery roughly balances the cooling from climate change. Thus, ozone depletion itself plays a major role in the Antarctic trends in low temperature extremes. The model trend in low temperature extremes in the Arctic through the latter half of the twentieth century is weaker and less statistically robust than the observed trend. It is not projected to continue into the future. Ozone depletion in the Arctic is weaker in the CMAM than in observations, which may account for the weak past trend in low temperature extremes. In the future, radiative cooling in the Arctic winter due to climate change is more than compensated by an increase in dynamically driven downwelling over the pole

Statistical characterization of arctic polar-night jet oscillation events

A novel diagnostic tool is presented, based on polar-cap temperature anomalies, for visualizing daily variability of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex over multiple decades. This visualization illustrates the ubiquity of extended-time-scale recoveries from stratospheric sudden warmings, termed here polar-night jet oscillation (PJO) events. These are characterized by an anomalously warm polar lower stratosphere that persists for several months. Following the initial warming, a cold anomaly forms in the middle stratosphere, as does an anomalously high stratopause, both of which descend while the lower-stratospheric anomaly persists. These events are characterized in four datasets: Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) temperature observations; the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses; and an ensemble of three 150-yr simulations from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model. The statistics of PJO events in the model are found to agree very closely with those of the observations and reanalyses. The time scale for the recovery of the polar vortex following sudden warmings correlates strongly with the depth to which the warming initially descends. PJO events occur following roughly half of all major sudden warmings and are associated with an extended period of suppressed wave-activity fluxes entering the polar vortex. They follow vortex splits more frequently than they do vortex displacements. They are also related to weak vortex events as identified by the northern annular mode; in particular, those weak vortex events followed by a PJO event show a stronger tropospheric response. The long time scales, predominantly radiative dynamics, and tropospheric influence of PJO events suggest that they represent an important source of conditional skill in seasonal forecasting

Phase Coherence and Superfluid-Insulator Transition in a Disordered Bose-Einstein Condensate

We have studied the effects of a disordered optical potential on the transport and phase coherence of a Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC) of 7Li atoms. At moderate disorder strengths (V_D), we observe inhibited transport and damping of dipole excitations, while in time-of-flight images, random but reproducible interference patterns are observed. In-situ images reveal that the appearance of interference is correlated with density modulation, without complete fragmentation. At higher V_D, the interference contrast diminishes as the BEC fragments into multiple pieces with little phase coherence.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figures, distortions in figures 1 and 4 have been fixed in version 3. This paper has been accepted to PR

A Comparative Study of the Valence Electronic Excitations of N_2 by Inelastic X-ray and Electron Scattering

Bound state, valence electronic excitation spectra of N_2 are probed by nonresonant inelastic x-ray and electron scattering. Within the usual theoretical treatments, dynamical structure factors derived from the two probes should be identical. However, we find strong disagreements outside the dipole scattering limit, even at high probe energies. This suggests an unexpectedly important contribution from intra-molecular multiple scattering of the probe electron from core electrons or the nucleus. These effects should grow progressively stronger as the atomic number of the target species increases.Comment: Submitted to Physical Review Letters April 27, 2010. 12 pages including 2 figure pages