Use of the Delphi Method for Collection and Analysis of Subjective Judgements: an Example From Central Kalimantan

Sebagian besar daripada keputusan-keputusan yang penting dalam bidang pelayanan kesehatan harus didasarkan kepada pendapat individu yang subyektif, oleh karena data-data yang tepat dan model-model analitis tidak cukup tersedia. Metoda Delphi dapat digunakan maka data-data subyektif dapat dikumpulkan dan dianalisa secara sistematis, walaupun metoda tersebut sangat murah digunakan dan mudah dimengerti. Satu contoh daripada penggunaan metoda Delphi diberikan dalam naskah ini, mengenai persiapan-persiapan Pelita 3 Kesehatan di Kalimantan Tengah

Modelling and evaluating petroleum migration pathways in the Paris, Williston and west of Shetlands and Wessex Basins

Petroleum migration pathways through a basin are determined by the three-dimensional distribution of discontinuous sealing surfaces, which are usually parallel to bedding. The petroleum migrates below the sealing surface taking the structurally most advantageous route. The three-dimensional distribution of migration pathways within the petroleum system can be modelled on a personal computer using a program based on the parameters developed during the research summarised in this thesis. Application of the model to the Paris, Williston, West of Shetlands and Wessex Basins demonstrates that a good correlation can be made between predicted pathways and discovered accumulations using simple models. Migration pathways form a dense network overlying hydrocarbon generating areas in the central parts of basins. Towards the basin margins they commonly become increasingly focused into discrete pathways by the sealing-surface morphologies. The Paris and Williston Basin research showed how relatively minor structuring of geological strata can result in a significant focusing of pathways. Eventually these pathways may reach the surface as shown by seepages. Research in the Wessex Basin revealed that reverse modelling of pathways from seeps assists in the prediction of the location of leaking accumulations. Deflection of the pathways from the structurally most advantageous route below the sealing surface may be caused by lateral sealing barriers due to facies variation in the carrier rock below the seal, fault juxtaposition, or cross-formational seals such as salt intrusions. Deflection of pathways also occurs where there are hydrodynamic conditions in response to topography-driven groundwater flow

Anatomy of the western Java plate interface from depth-migrated seismic images

Newly pre-stack depth-migrated seismic images resolve the structural details of the western Java forearc and plate interface. The structural segmentation of the forearc into discrete mechanical domains correlates with distinct deformation styles. Approximately 2/3 of the trench sediment fill is detached and incorporated into frontal prism imbricates, while the floor sequence is underthrust beneath the décollement. Western Java, however, differs markedly from margins such as Nankai or Barbados, where a uniform, continuous décollement reflector has been imaged. In our study area, the plate interface reveals a spatially irregular, nonlinear pattern characterized by the morphological relief of subducted seamounts and thicker than average patches of underthrust sediment. The underthrust sediment is associated with a low velocity zone as determined from wide-angle data. Active underplating is not resolved, but likely contributes to the uplift of the large bivergent wedge that constitutes the forearc high. Our profile is located 100 km west of the 2006 Java tsunami earthquake. The heterogeneous décollement zone regulates the friction behavior of the shallow subduction environment where the earthquake occurred. The alternating pattern of enhanced frictional contact zones associated with oceanic basement relief and weak material patches of underthrust sediment influences seismic coupling and possibly contributed to the heterogeneous slip distribution. Our seismic images resolve a steeply dipping splay fault, which originates at the décollement and terminates at the sea floor and which potentially contributes to tsunami generation during co-seismic activity

Mapping the contribution of Allied Health Professions to the wider public health workforce : a rapid review of evidence-based interventions

Objectives: The objective was to identify a selection of the best examples of the public health contributions by Allied Health Professionals (AHPs) in order to encourage a wider awareness and participation from that workforce to public health practice. Study design: A mapping exercise was used to identify evidence-based interventions that could lead to health improvements across a population. Methods: A rapid review was undertaken to identify evidence, followed by a survey of Allied Health Profession (AHP) practitioners and an expert panel consensus method to select the examples of AHP public health interventions. Results: Nine evidence-based interventions are identified and selected as examples of current AHP good practice. These examples represent a contribution to public health and include screening interventions, secondary prevention and risk management. Conclusions: This study contributes to a strategy for AHPs in public health by appraising the effectiveness and impact of some exemplar AHP practices that contribute to health improvement. There is a need for AHPs to measure the impact of their interventions and to demonstrate evidence of outcomes at population level. Keywords: allied health professions; Applied Health Professionals; evidence-based practice; health improvement; public health; rapid revie

Investigation of shock waves in explosive blasts using fibre optic pressure sensors

The published version of this article may be accessed at the link below. Copyright @ IOP Publishing, 2006.We describe miniature all-optical pressure sensors, fabricated by wafer etching techniques, less than 1 mm(2) in overall cross-section with rise times in the mu s regime and pressure ranges typically 900 kPa (9 bar). Their performance is suitable for experimental studies of the pressure-time history for test models exposed to shocks initiated by an explosive charge. The small size and fast response of the sensors promises higher quality data than has been previously available from conventional electrical sensors, with potential improvements to numerical models of blast effects. Results from blast tests are presented in which up to six sensors were multiplexed, embedded within test models in a range of orientations relative to the shock front.Support from the UK Engineering&Physical Sciences Research Council and Dstl Fort Halstead through the MoD Joint Grants Scheme are acknowledged. WN MacPherson is supported by an EPSRC Advanced Research Fellowship

The Ulakhan fault surface rupture and the seismicity of the Okhotsk–North America plate boundary

New field work, combined with analysis of high-resolution aerial photographs, digital elevation models, and satellite imagery, has identified an active fault that is traceable for ∼90&thinsp;km across the Seymchan Basin and is part of the Ulakhan fault system, which is believed to form the Okhotsk–North America plate boundary. Age dating of alluvial fan sediments in a channel system that is disturbed by fault activity suggests the current scarp is a result of a series of large earthquakes (≥Mw 7.5) that have occurred since 11.6±2.7&thinsp;ka. A possible channel feature offset by 62±4&thinsp;m associated with these sediments yields a slip rate of 5.3±1.3&thinsp;mm&thinsp;yr−1, in broad agreement with rates suggested from global plate tectonics. Our results clearly identify the Ulakhan fault as the Okhotsk–North America plate boundary and show that tectonic strain release is strongly concentrated on the boundaries of Okhotsk. In light of our results, the likelihood of recurrence of Mw 7.5 earthquakes is high, suggesting a previously underestimated seismic hazard across the region.</p

Genetic diversity and population structure of Angiostrongylus vasorum parasites within and between local urban foxes (Vulpes Vulpes)

Angiostrongylus vasorum is a nematode parasite of the pulmonary arteries and heart that infects domestic and wild canids. Dogs (Canis familiaris) and red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) are the most commonly affected definitive hosts. Recent studies suggest that angiostrongylosis is an emerging disease, and that red foxes may play an important role in the epidemiology of the parasite. Genetic analyses of parasites collected from dogs and foxes throughout Europe have shown that the same parasite haplotypes are commonly shared between different host species. However, the extent of genetic diversity within local A. vasorum populations and individual hosts is unknown. The objective of the present study was to assess the occurrence of genetic diversity among A. vasorum (a) recovered from different foxes within the Greater London area (a localised population, single worm per fox dataset); and (b) hosted within single foxes (multiple worms per fox dataset). During 2016, A. vasorum worms were collected from foxes culled for other purposes in London. DNA was extracted from each parasite and a partial fragment of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 (mtCOI) gene was amplified and sequenced. Sequences from the single worm dataset were compared with those published elsewhere. Combined, 19 haplotypes were described of which 15 were identified from foxes found in London, indicating that considerable genetic diversity can be detected within a local geographic area. Analysis of the multiple worm dataset identified 22 haplotypes defining worms recovered from just six foxes, emphasising the relevance of wild canines as reservoirs of genetic diversity. This is the first study to explore the genetic complexity of individual fox-hosted A. vasorum population

Relational trauma and its impact on late-adopted children

This paper describes work with two children, placed for late adoption who have suffered relational trauma. The paper explores the long-term consequences of such trauma, which includes problems with affect regulation, difficulties in generalising from one experience to another and shifts between phantasies of omnipotent control and sudden helplessness. Using drawings from one boy's therapy, it is argued that many children adopted at a later age live in two worlds, both internal and external, and internal objects and memories from the past vie with new experiences and representations for ascendancy within the child's mind. Which is more real: the world of the past or the present? The paper describes how these children experienced sudden and troubling shifts in focus as they were catapulted from feeling states belonging to one world to the other. The paper ends with a consideration of how findings from neuroscience may help us to understand these sudden shifts and overall argues for a pulling together of psychoanalytic thinking and child development research findings to support the child in psychotherapy

AIGO: towards a unified framework for the analysis and the inter-comparison of GO functional annotations

BACKGROUND: In response to the rapid growth of available genome sequences, efforts have been made to develop automatic inference methods to functionally characterize them. Pipelines that infer functional annotation are now routinely used to produce new annotations at a genome scale and for a broad variety of species. These pipelines differ widely in their inference algorithms, confidence thresholds and data sources for reasoning. This heterogeneity makes a comparison of the relative merits of each approach extremely complex. The evaluation of the quality of the resultant annotations is also challenging given there is often no existing gold-standard against which to evaluate precision and recall. RESULTS: In this paper, we present a pragmatic approach to the study of functional annotations. An ensemble of 12 metrics, describing various aspects of functional annotations, is defined and implemented in a unified framework, which facilitates their systematic analysis and inter-comparison. The use of this framework is demonstrated on three illustrative examples: analysing the outputs of state-of-the-art inference pipelines, comparing electronic versus manual annotation methods, and monitoring the evolution of publicly available functional annotations. The framework is part of the AIGO library (http://code.google.com/p/aigo) for the Analysis and the Inter-comparison of the products of Gene Ontology (GO) annotation pipelines. The AIGO library also provides functionalities to easily load, analyse, manipulate and compare functional annotations and also to plot and export the results of the analysis in various formats. CONCLUSIONS: This work is a step toward developing a unified framework for the systematic study of GO functional annotations. This framework has been designed so that new metrics on GO functional annotations can be added in a very straightforward way