Could a Kilonova Kill: a Threat Assessment

Binary neutron star mergers (BNS) produce high-energy emissions from several physically different sources, including a gamma-ray burst (GRB) and its afterglow, a kilonova, and, at late times, a remnant many parsecs in size. Ionizing radiation from these sources can be dangerous for life on Earth-like planets when located too close. Work to date has explored the substantial danger posed by the GRB to on-axis observers: here we focus instead on the potential threats posed to nearby off-axis observers. Our analysis is based largely on observations of the GW 170817/GRB 170817A multi-messenger event, as well as theoretical predictions. For baseline kilonova parameters, we find that the X-ray emission from the afterglow may be lethal out to $\sim 5$ pc and the off-axis gamma-ray emission may threaten a range out to $\sim 4$ pc, whereas the greatest threat comes years after the explosion, from the cosmic rays accelerated by the kilonova blast, which can be lethal out to distances up to $\sim 11$ pc. The distances quoted here are typical, but the values have significant uncertainties and depend on the viewing angle, ejected mass, and explosion energy in ways we quantify. Assessing the overall threat to Earth-like planets, have a similar kill distance to supernovae, but are far less common. However, our results rely on the scant available kilonova data, and multi-messenger observations will clarify the danger posed by such events.Comment: 21 pages, 5 figures. Comments welcom

Time-dependent models of the structure and evolution of self-gravitating protoplanetary discs

Angular momentum transport within young massive protoplanetary discs may be dominated by self-gravity at radii where the disk is too weakly ionized to allow the development of the magneto-rotational instability. We use time-dependent one-dimensional disc models, based on a local cooling time calculation of the efficiency of transport, to study the radial structure and stability (against fragmentation) of protoplanetary discs in which self-gravity is the sole transport mechanism. We find that self-gravitating discs rapidly attain a quasi-steady state in which the surface density in the inner disc is high and the strength of turbulence very low (alpha ~ 10^{-3} or less inside 5 au). Temperatures high enough to form crystalline silicates may extend out to several au at early times within these discs. None of our discs spontaneously develop regions that would be unambiguously unstable to fragmentation into substellar objects, though the outer regions (beyond 20 au) of the most massive discs are close enough to the threshold that fragmentation cannot be ruled out. We discuss how the mass accretion rates through such discs may vary with disc mass and with mass of the central star, and note that a determination of the \dot{M}-M_* relation for very young systems may allow a test of the model.Comment: 10 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

The Long-Lived Disks in the Eta Chamaeleontis Cluster

We present IRS spectra and revised MIPS photometry for the 18 members of the Eta Chamaeleontis cluster. Aged 8 Myr, the Eta Cha cluster is one of the few nearby regions within the 5-10 Myr age range, during which the disk fraction decreases dramatically and giant planet formation must come to an end. For the 15 low-mass members, we measure a disk fraction ~50%, high for their 8 Myr age, and 4 of the 8 disks lack near-IR excesses, consistent with the empirical definition of "transition'' disks. Most of the disks are comparable to geometrically flat disks. The comparison with regions of different ages suggests that at least some of the "transition" disks may represent the normal type of disk around low-mass stars. Therefore, their flattened structure and inner holes may be related to other factors (initial masses of the disk and the star, environment, binarity), rather than to pure time evolution. We analyze the silicate dust in the disk atmosphere, finding moderate crystalline fractions (~10-30%) and typical grain sizes ~1-3 micron, without any characteristic trend in the composition. These results are common to other regions of different ages, suggesting that the initial grain processing occurs very early in the disk lifetime (<1 Myr). Large grain sizes in the disk atmosphere cannot be used as a proxy for age, but are likely related to higher disk turbulence. The dust mineralogy varies between the 8-12micron and the 20-30 micron features, suggesting high temperature dust processing and little radial mixing. Finally, the analysis of IR and optical data on the B9 star Eta Cha reveals that it is probably surrounded by a young debris disk with a large inner hole, instead of being a classical Be star.Comment: 35 pages, 6 tables, 8 figures; Accepted by Ap

Pennsylvania Folklife Vol. 31, No. 4

• Of Baskets and Basket Makers • Egg Decorating at the Kutztown Folk Festival • Spatterware • Scrimshaw • Folk Musical Instruments at the Kutztown Folk Festival • Puppets: Fun at the Festival • Festival Focus • Folk Festival Programs • Festival Focus on Quilts • The Kutztown Folk Festival\u27s Calico Seamstresses • Summer Drinks of the Pennsylvania Dutch • The Folk Festival\u27s Lace Maker • The Country Cemetery: Connection Between Past and Present • Coopering • The Dialect of the Pennsylvania Dutchhttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/pafolklifemag/1096/thumbnail.jp

IFN-λ3, not IFN-λ4, likely mediates IFNL3–IFNL4 haplotype–dependent hepatic inflammation and fibrosis

The International Liver Disease Genetics Consortium (ILDGC).Genetic variation in the IFNL3–IFNL4 (interferon-λ3–interferon-λ4) region is associated with hepatic inflammation and fibrosis1,2,3,4. Whether IFN-λ3 or IFN-λ4 protein drives this association is not known. We demonstrate that hepatic inflammation, fibrosis stage, fibrosis progression rate, hepatic infiltration of immune cells, IFN-λ3 expression, and serum sCD163 levels (a marker of activated macrophages) are greater in individuals with the IFNL3–IFNL4 risk haplotype that does not produce IFN-λ4, but produces IFN-λ3. No difference in these features was observed according to genotype at rs117648444, which encodes a substitution at position 70 of the IFN-λ4 protein and reduces IFN-λ4 activity, or between patients encoding functionally defective IFN-λ4 (IFN-λ4–Ser70) and those encoding fully active IFN-λ4–Pro70. The two proposed functional variants (rs368234815 and rs4803217)5,6 were not superior to the discovery SNP rs12979860 with respect to liver inflammation or fibrosis phenotype. IFN-λ3 rather than IFN-λ4 likely mediates IFNL3–IFNL4 haplotype–dependent hepatic inflammation and fibrosis.M.E., M.D., and J.G. are supported by the Robert W. Storr Bequest to the Sydney Medical Foundation, University of Sydney, and by a National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (NHMRC) Program Grant (1053206) and NHMRC Project Grants (APP1107178 and APP1108422). G.D. is supported by an NHMRC Fellowship (1028432)

Tolerability of breast ductal lavage in women from families at high genetic risk of breast cancer

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Ductal lavage (DL) has been proposed as a minimally-invasive, well-tolerated tool for obtaining breast epithelial cells for cytological evaluation of breast cancer risk. We report DL tolerability in <it>BRCA1/2 </it>mutation-positive and -negative women from an IRB-approved research study.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>165 <it>BRCA1/2 </it>mutation-positive, 26 mutation-negative and 3 mutation unknown women underwent mammography, breast MRI and DL. Psychological well-being and perceptions of pain were obtained before and after DL, and compared with pain experienced during other screening procedures.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The average <b><it>anticipated </it></b>and <b><it>experienced </it></b>discomfort rating for DL, 47 and 48 (0–100), were significantly higher (<it>p </it>< 0.01) than the <b><it>anticipated </it></b>and <b><it>experienced </it></b>discomfort of mammogram (38 and 34), MRI (36 and 25) or nipple aspiration (42 and 27). Women with greater pre-existing emotional distress experienced more DL-related discomfort than they anticipated. Women reporting DL-related pain as worse than expected were nearly three times more likely to refuse subsequent DL than those reporting it as the same or better than expected. Twenty-five percent of participants refused repeat DL at first annual follow-up.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>DL was anticipated to be and experienced as <b>more </b>uncomfortable than other procedures used in breast cancer screening. Higher underlying psychological distress was associated with decreased DL tolerability.</p

Breast cancer screening in women at increased risk according to different family histories: an update of the Modena Study Group experience

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer (BC) detection in women with a genetic susceptibility or strong family history is considered mandatory compared with BC screening in the general population. However, screening modalities depend on the level of risk. Here we present an update of our screening programs based on risk classification. METHODS: We defined different risk categories and surveillance strategies to identify early BC in 1325 healthy women recruited by the Modena Study Group for familial breast and ovarian cancer. Four BC risk categories included BRCA1/2 carriers, increased, intermediate, and slightly increased risk. Women who developed BC from January 1, 1994, through December 31, 2005 (N = 44) were compared with the number of expected cases matched for age and period. BRCA1/2 carriers were identified by mutational analysis. Other risk groups were defined by different levels of family history for breast or ovarian cancer (OC). The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) was used to evaluate the observed and expected ratio among groups. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 55 months, there was a statistically significant difference between observed and expected incidence [SIR = 4.9; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.6 to 7.6; p < 0.001]. The incidence observed among BRCA carriers (SIR = 20.3; 95% CI = 3.1 to 83.9; P < 0.001), women at increased (SIR = 4.5; 95% CI = 1.5 to 8.3; P < 0.001) or intermediate risk (SIR = 7.0, 95% CI = 2.0 to 17.1; P = 0.0018) was higher than expected, while the difference between observed and expected among women at slightly increased risk was not statistically significant (SIR = 2.4, 95% CI = 0.9 to 8.3; P = .74). CONCLUSION: The rate of cancers detected in women at high risk according to BRCA status or strong family history, as defined according to our operational criteria, was significantly higher than expected in an age-matched general population. However, we failed to identify a greater incidence of BC in the slightly increased risk group. These results support the effectiveness of the proposed program to identify and monitor individuals at high risk, whereas prospective trials are needed for women belonging to families with sporadic BC or OC