First Nature vs. Second Nature Causes: Industry Location and Growth in the Presence of an Open-Access Renewable Resource

In this paper we present a model integrating characteristics of the New Economic Geography, the theory of endogenous growth and the economy of natural resources. This theoretical framework enables us to study explicitly the effect of “first nature causes” in the concentration of economic activity, more specifically, the consequences of an asymmetrical distribution of natural resources. The natural resource we consider appears as a localized input in one of the two countries, giving firms located in that country a cost advantage. In this context, after a decrease in transport costs, firms decide to move to the country with the greatest domestic demand and market size, where they can take more advantage of increasing returns, despite the cost advantage of locating in the South, due to the presence of the natural resource.industrial location; endogenous growth; renewable resource; geography

Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities: Location, Increasing Returns or Random Growth?

This article analyzes empirically the main existing theories on income and population city growth: increasing returns to scale, locational fundamentals and random growth. To do this we implement a threshold nonlinearity test that extends standard linear growth regression models to a dataset on urban, climatological and macroeconomic variables on 1,175 U.S. cities. Our analysis reveals the existence of increasing returns when per-capita income levels are beyond $19; 264. Despite this, income growth is mostly explained by social and locational fundamentals. Population growth also exhibits two distinct equilibria determined by a threshold value of 116,300 inhabitants beyond which city population grows at a higher rate. Income and population growth do not go hand in hand, implying an optimal level of population beyond which income growth stagnates or deterioratesthreshold nonlinearity test, locational fundamentals, multiple equilibria, random growth

Growth in a cross-section of cities: location, increasing returns or random growth?

This article analyzes empirically the main existing theories on income and population city growth: increasing returns to scale, locational fundamentals and random growth. To do this we implement a threshold nonlinearity test that extends standard linear growth regression models to a dataset on urban, climatological and macroeconomic variables on 1,175 U.S. cities. Our analysis reveals the existence of increasing returns when per-capita income levels are beyond $19; 264. Despite this, income growth is mostly explained by social and locational fundamentals. Population growth also exhibits two distinct equilibria determined by a threshold value of 116,300 inhabitants beyond which city population grows at a higher rate. Income and population growth do not go hand in hand, implying an optimal level of population beyond which income growth stagnates or deteriorates.Threshold nonlinearity test, locational fundamentals, multiple equilibria, random growth

Trade liberalisation and global-scale forest transition

In this paper, we develop a new theoretical model that explains the forest transition not at a local, but at a worldwide level, in a trade liberalisation scenario. Our model has economic geography foundations: transport costs affect the distribution of firms between countries. We also introduce a renewable natural resource used as an input by manufacturing firms. The results reproduce forest transition behaviour but at a global scale: a decrease in transport costs has a negative effect on the worldwide stock of the natural resource in the short-term, but in the long-term this initial effect is reversed as a consequence of industrial reorganisation between countries because of the change in transport costs.Forest transition; renewable resources; industrial location; geography; trade

Historical urban growth in Europe (1300–1800)

This paper analyses the evolution of the European urban system from a long-term perspective (from 1300 to 1800) considering the historical data set of Bairoch et al. (1988). Using the method recently proposed by Clauset et al. (2009), a Pareto-type city size distribution (power law) is rejected from 1300 to 1600. A power law is a plausible model for the city size distribution only in 1700 and 1800, although the log-normal distribution is another plausible alternative model that we cannot reject. Moreover, random growth of cities is rejected using parametric and non-parametric methods. The results reveal a clear pattern of convergent growth in all periods

Cross-sectional growth in US cities from 1990 to 2000

This paper analyses the growth of American cities, understood as the growth of the population or of the per capita income, from 1990 to 2000. This empirical analysis uses data from all the cities (incorporated places) with more than 25,000 inhabitants in the year 2000 (1152 cities). The results show that while common convergence behaviour is observed in both population and per capita income growth, there are differences in the evolution of the distributions: the population distribution remains almost unchanged, while the per capita income distribution makes a great movement to the right. We use two different methodologies to test cross-sectional convergence across cities: linear growth models (allowing for spatial spillovers between locations) and spatial quantile regressions. We find evidence of significant spatial effects and non-linear behaviour

Regional unemployment, marriage, and divorce

In this paper, we examine whether the business cycle plays a role in marriage and divorce. We use data on Spain, since the differences between recession and expansion periods across regions are quite pronounced in that country. We find that the unemployment rate is negatively associated with the marriage rate, pointing to a pro-cyclical evolution of marriage; however the response of the divorce rate to the business cycle is mixed. Results show the existence of different patterns, depending on geography: divorce rates in coastal regions are procyclical, while in inland regions divorces react to unemployment in a counter-cyclical way. Other factors, such as changes in divorce law and duration of the marriage also have a significant effect on divorce rates

First nature vs. second nature causes: industry location and growth in the presence of an open-access renewable resource

In this paper we present a model integrating characteristics of the New Economic Geography, the theory of endogenous growth and the economy of natural resources. This theoretical framework enables us to study explicitly the effect of “first nature causes” in the concentration of economic activity, more specifically, the consequences of an asymmetrical distribution of natural resources. The natural resource we consider appears as a localized input in one of the two countries, giving firms located in that country a cost advantage. In this context, after a decrease in transport costs, firms decide to move to the country with the greatest domestic demand and market size, where they can take more advantage of increasing returns, despite the cost advantage of locating in the South, due to the presence of the natural resource

Divorce and the business cycle: a cross-country analysis

In this paper, we examine the role of the business cycle in divorce. To do so, we use a panel of 29 European countries covering the period from 1991 to 2012. We find the unemployment rate negatively affects the divorce rate, pointing to a pro-cyclical evolution of the divorce rate, even after controlling for socio-economic variables and unobservable characteristics that can vary by country, and/or over time. Results indicate that a onepercentage-point increase in the unemployment rate involves almost 0.025 fewer divorces per thousand inhabitants. The impact is small, representing around 1.2% of the average divorce rate in Europe during the period considered. Supplementary analysis, developed to explore a possible non-linear pattern, confirms a negative relationship between unemployment and divorce in European countries, with the inverse relationship being more pronounced in those countries with higher divorce rates

The effect of the Spanish Reconquest on Iberian cities

This paper studies the effect of the Spanish Reconquest, a military campaign that aimed to expel the Muslims from the Iberian Peninsula, on the population of its most important cities. The almost four centuries of Reconquest offer a “quasi-natural” experiment to study the persistence of population shocks at the city level. Analyzing city growth before and after the onset of the Reconquest, we find that it had a significant negative effect on the population of the main Iberian cities. However, when we control for time effects, we conclude that in most cities this effect was transitory. In order to quantify the duration of the shock driven by the Reconquest we then estimate its average effect on the urban share of these cities considering the time dimension of the entire panel of cities simultaneously and adding city-specific time trends. Our estimates suggest that these cities regained their pre-Reconquest shares on average in less than 100 years. These results are robust to controlling for a large set of country and city-specific socioeconòmic indicators and spatial effects. Our findings suggest that the locational fundamentals that determined the relative size of Iberian cities before the Reconquest were more important determinants of the fate of these cities than the direct negative impact that the Reconquest had on their population