Improved Second-Order Bounds for Prediction with Expert Advice

This work studies external regret in sequential prediction games with both positive and negative payoffs. External regret measures the difference between the payoff obtained by the forecasting strategy and the payoff of the best action. In this setting, we derive new and sharper regret bounds for the well-known exponentially weighted average forecaster and for a new forecaster with a different multiplicative update rule. Our analysis has two main advantages: first, no preliminary knowledge about the payoff sequence is needed, not even its range; second, our bounds are expressed in terms of sums of squared payoffs, replacing larger first-order quantities appearing in previous bounds. In addition, our most refined bounds have the natural and desirable property of being stable under rescalings and general translations of the payoff sequence

Effects of fade distribution on a mobile satellite downlink and uplink performance in a frequency reuse cellular configuration

In a mobile satellite system with a frequency reuse cellular configuration, significant co-channel interference can be experienced due to the antenna sidelobe level. The signal will be subjected not only to its own fading, but also to the effect of the varying degree of fading on co-channel interferer, and this interference will behave differently in the up and in the down link. This paper presents a quantitative evaluation of the combined effects of fades and co-channel interference on a mobile satellite link

Improving InSAR geodesy using global atmospheric models

Spatial and temporal variations of pressure, temperature and water vapor content in the atmosphere introduce significant confounding delays in Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations of ground deformation and bias estimatesof regional strain rates. Producing robust estimates of tropospheric delays remains one of the key challenges in increasing the accuracy of ground deformation measurements using InSAR. Recent studies revealed the efficiency of global atmospheric reanalysis to mitigate the impact of tropospheric delays, motivating further exploration of their potential. Here, we explore the effectiveness of these models in several geographic and tectonic settings on both single interferograms and time series analysis products. Both hydrostatic and wet contributions to the phase delay are important to account for. We validate these path delay corrections by comparing with estimates of vertically integrated atmospheric water vapor content derived from the passive multi-spectral imager MERIS, onboard the ENVISAT satellite. Generally, the performance of the prediction depends on the vigor of atmospheric turbulence. We discuss (1) how separating atmospheric and orbital contributions allows one to better measure long wavelength deformation, (2) how atmospheric delays affect measurements of surface deformation following earthquakes and (3) we show that such a method allows us to reduce biases in multi-year strain rate estimates by reducing the influence of unevenly sampled seasonal oscillations of the tropospheric delay

Atmospheres and Spectra of Strongly Magnetized Neutron Stars -- III. Partially Ionized Hydrogen Models

We construct partially ionized hydrogen atmosphere models for magnetized neutron stars in radiative equilibrium with surface fields B=10^12-5 \times 10^14 G and effective temperatures T_eff \sim a few \times 10^5-10^6 K. These models are based on the latest equation of state and opacity results for magnetized, partially ionized hydrogen plasmas that take into account various magnetic and dense medium effects. The atmospheres directly determine the characteristics of thermal emission from isolated neutron stars. For the models with B=10^12-10^13 G, the spectral features due to neutral atoms lie at extreme UV and very soft X-ray energy bands and therefore are difficult to observe. However, the continuum flux is also different from the fully ionized case, especially at lower energies. For the superstrong field models (B\ga 10^14 G), we show that the vacuum polarization effect not only suppresses the proton cyclotron line as shown previously, but also suppresses spectral features due to bound species; therefore spectral lines or features in thermal radiation are more difficult to observe when the neutron star magnetic field is \ga 10^14 G.Comment: 12 pages, 10 figures; ApJ, accepted (v599: Dec 20, 2003

Equation of state of classical Coulomb plasma mixtures

We develop analytic approximations of thermodynamic functions of fully ionized nonideal electron-ion plasma mixtures. In the regime of strong Coulomb coupling, we use our previously developed analytic approximations for the free energy of one-component plasmas with rigid and polarizable electron background and apply the linear mixing rule (LMR). Other thermodynamic functions are obtained through analytic derivation of this free energy. In order to obtain an analytic approximation for the intermediate coupling and transition to the Debye-Hueckel limit, we perform hypernetted-chain calculations of the free energy, internal energy, and pressure for mixtures of different ion species and introduce a correction to the LMR, which allows a smooth transition from strong to weak Coulomb coupling in agreement with the numerical results.Comment: 6 pages, 7 figures; Phys. Rev. E. In v.2 after proofreading, minor typos are fixe

Effects of environmental factors on development of Pyrenopeziza brassicae (light leaf spot) apothecia on oilseed rape debris

Publication no. P-2001-0221-01R. This article is in the public domain and not copyrightable. It may be freely reprinted with customary crediting of the source. The American Phytopathological Society, 2001The development of Pyrenopeziza brassicae (light leaf spot) apothecia was studied on petiole debris from artificially infected oilseed rape leaves incubated at temperatures from 6 to 22 degreesC under different wetness regimes and in 16 h light/8 h dark or continuous darkness. There was no significant difference between light treatments in numbers of apothecia that developed. Mature apothecia developed at temperatures from 5 to 18 degreesC but not at 22 degreesC. The rate of apothecial development decreased as temperature decreased from 18 to 5 degreesC; mature apothecia were first observed after 5 days at 18 degreesC and after 15 days at 6 degreesC. Models were fitted to estimates of the time (days) for 50% of the maximum number of apothecia to develop (t(1); model 1, t(1) = 7.6 + 55.8(0.839)(T)) and the time for 50% of the maximum number of apothecia to decay (t(2); model 2, t(2) = 24.2 + 387(0.730)(T)) at temperatures (T) from 6 to 18 degreesC. An interruption in wetness of the petiole debris for 4 days after 4, 7, or 10 days of wetness delayed the time to observation of the first mature apothecia for approximate to4 days and decreased the number of apothecia produced (by comparison with continuous wetness). A relationship was found between water content of pod debris and electrical resistance measured by a debris-wetness sensor. The differences between values of tl predicted by model 1 and observed values of t(1) were 1 to 9 days. Model 2 did not predict t(2); apothecia decayed more quickly under natural conditions than predicted by model 2.Peer reviewe

Value-at-Risk estimation: A novel GARCH-EVT approach dealing with bias and heteroscedasticity

Open House, ISM in National Center of Sciences Building, 2019.6.05統計数理研究所オープンハウス（学術総合センター）、R1.6.5ポスター発

Equation of state and opacities for hydrogen atmospheres of magnetars

The equation of state and radiative opacities of partially ionized, strongly magnetized hydrogen plasmas, presented in a previous paper [ApJ 585, 955 (2003), astro-ph/0212062] for the magnetic field strengths 8.e11 G < B < 3.e13 G, are extended to the field strengths 3.e13 G < B < 1.e15 G, relevant for magnetars. The first- and second-order thermodynamic functions and radiative opacities are calculated and tabulated for 5.e5 < T < 4.e7 K in a wide range of densities. We show that bound-free transitions give an important contribution to the opacities in the considered range of B in the outer neutron-star atmosphere layers. Unlike the case of weaker fields, bound-bound transitions are unimportant.Comment: 7 pages, 6 figures, LaTeX using emulateapj.cls (included). Accepted by Ap

On the critical pair theory in abelian groups : Beyond Chowla's Theorem

We obtain critical pair theorems for subsets S and T of an abelian group such that |S+T| < |S|+|T|+1. We generalize some results of Chowla, Vosper, Kemperman and a more recent result due to Rodseth and one of the authors.Comment: Submitted to Combinatorica, 23 pages, revised versio