A Closer Look at Exoplanet Occurrence Rates: Considering the Multiplicity of Stars without Detected Planets

One core goal of the Kepler mission was to determine the frequency of Earth-like planets that orbit Sun-like stars. Accurately estimating this planet occurrence rate requires both a well-vetted list of planets and a clear understanding of the stars searched for planets. Previous ground-based follow-up observations have, through a variety of methods, sought to improve our knowledge of stars that are known to host planets. Kepler targets without detected planets, however, have not been subjected to the same intensity of follow-up observations. In this paper, we constrain better the stellar multiplicity for stars around which Kepler could have theoretically detected a transiting Earth-sized planet in the habitable zone. We subsequently aim to improve estimates of the exoplanet search completeness—the fraction of exoplanets that were detected by Kepler—with our analysis. By obtaining adaptive optics observations of 71 Kepler target stars from the Shane 3 m telescope at Lick Observatory, we detected 14 candidate stellar companions within 4'' of 13 target stars. Of these 14 candidate stellar companions, we determine through multiple independent methods that 3 are likely to be bound to their corresponding target star. We then assess the impact of our observations on exoplanet occurrence rate calculations, finding an increase in occurrence of 6% (0.9σ) for various estimates of the frequency of Earth-like planets and an increase of 26% (4.5σ) for super-Earths and sub-Neptunes. These occurrence increases are not entirely commensurate with theoretical predictions, though this discrepancy may be due to differences in the treatment of stellar binarity

Giant Outer Transiting Exoplanet Mass (GOT 'EM) Survey. I. Confirmation of an Eccentric, Cool Jupiter With an Interior Earth-sized Planet Orbiting Kepler-1514*

Despite the severe bias of the transit method of exoplanet discovery toward short orbital periods, a modest sample of transiting exoplanets with orbital periods greater than 100 days is known. Long-term radial velocity (RV) surveys are pivotal to confirming these signals and generating a set of planetary masses and densities for planets receiving moderate to low irradiation from their host stars. Here, we conduct RV observations of Kepler-1514 from the Keck I telescope using the High Resolution Echelle Spectrometer. From these data, we measure the mass of the statistically validated giant ($1.108\pm0.023$ $R_{\rm J}$) exoplanet Kepler-1514 b with a 218 day orbital period as $5.28\pm0.22$ $M_{\rm J}$. The bulk density of this cool ($\sim$390 K) giant planet is $4.82^{+0.26}_{-0.25}$ g cm$^{-3}$, consistent with a core supported by electron degeneracy pressure. We also infer an orbital eccentricity of $0.401^{+0.013}_{-0.014}$ from the RV and transit observations, which is consistent with planet-planet scattering and disk cavity migration models. The Kepler-1514 system contains an Earth-size, Kepler Object of Interest on a 10.5 day orbit that we statistically validate against false positive scenarios, including those involving a neighboring star. The combination of the brightness ($V$=11.8) of the host star and the long period, low irradiation, and high density of Kepler-1514 b places this system among a rare group of known exoplanetary systems and one that is amenable to continued study.Comment: 18 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in the Astronomical Journa

Can the Solar Wind be Driven by Magnetic Reconnection in the Sun's Magnetic Carpet?

The physical processes that heat the solar corona and accelerate the solar wind remain unknown after many years of study. Some have suggested that the wind is driven by waves and turbulence in open magnetic flux tubes, and others have suggested that plasma is injected into the open tubes by magnetic reconnection with closed loops. In order to test the latter idea, we developed Monte Carlo simulations of the photospheric "magnetic carpet" and extrapolated the time-varying coronal field. These models were constructed for a range of different magnetic flux imbalance ratios. Completely balanced models represent quiet regions on the Sun and source regions of slow solar wind streams. Highly imbalanced models represent coronal holes and source regions of fast wind streams. The models agree with observed emergence rates, surface flux densities, and number distributions of magnetic elements. Despite having no imposed supergranular motions, a realistic network of magnetic "funnels" appeared spontaneously. We computed the rate at which closed field lines open up (i.e., recycling times for open flux), and we estimated the energy flux released in reconnection events involving the opening up of closed flux tubes. For quiet regions and mixed-polarity coronal holes, these energy fluxes were found to be much lower than required to accelerate the solar wind. For the most imbalanced coronal holes, the energy fluxes may be large enough to power the solar wind, but the recycling times are far longer than the time it takes the solar wind to accelerate into the low corona. Thus, it is unlikely that either the slow or fast solar wind is driven by reconnection and loop-opening processes in the magnetic carpet.Comment: 25 pages (emulateapj style), 13 figures, ApJ, in pres

TOI-561 b: A Low Density Ultra-Short Period "Rocky" Planet around a Metal-Poor Star

TOI-561 is a galactic thick disk star hosting an ultra-short period (0.45 day orbit) planet with a radius of 1.37 R$_{\oplus}$, making it one of the most metal-poor ([Fe/H] = -0.41) and oldest ($\sim$10 Gyr) sites where an Earth-sized planet has been found. We present new simultaneous radial velocity measurements (RVs) from Gemini-N/MAROON-X and Keck/HIRES, which we combined with literature RVs to derive a mass of M$_{b}$=2.24 $\pm$ 0.20 M$_{\oplus}$. We also used two new Sectors of TESS photometry to improve the radius determination, finding R$_{b}$=$1.37 \pm 0.04 R_\oplus$, and confirming that TOI-561 b is one of the lowest-density super-Earths measured to date ($\rho_b$= 4.8 $\pm$ 0.5 g/cm$^{3}$). This density is consistent with an iron-poor rocky composition reflective of the host star's iron and rock-building element abundances; however, it is also consistent with a low-density planet with a volatile envelope. The equilibrium temperature of the planet ($\sim$2300 K) suggests that this envelope would likely be composed of high mean molecular weight species, such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, or silicate vapor, and is likely not primordial. We also demonstrate that the composition determination is sensitive to the choice of stellar parameters, and that further measurements are needed to determine if TOI-561 b is a bare rocky planet, a rocky planet with an optically thin atmosphere, or a rare example of a non-primordial envelope on a planet with a radius smaller than 1.5 R$_{\oplus}$.Comment: Accepted to AJ on 11/28/202

Investigating the Atmospheric Mass Loss of the Kepler-105 Planets Straddling the Radius Gap

An intriguing pattern among exoplanets is the lack of detected planets between approximately $1.5$ R$_\oplus$ and $2.0$ R$_\oplus$. One proposed explanation for this "radius gap" is the photoevaporation of planetary atmospheres, a theory that can be tested by studying individual planetary systems. Kepler-105 is an ideal system for such testing due to the ordering and sizes of its planets. Kepler-105 is a sun-like star that hosts two planets straddling the radius gap in a rare architecture with the larger planet closer to the host star ($R_b = 2.53\pm0.07$ R$_\oplus$, $P_b = 5.41$ days, $R_c = 1.44\pm0.04$ R$_\oplus$, $P_c = 7.13$ days). If photoevaporation sculpted the atmospheres of these planets, then Kepler-105b would need to be much more massive than Kepler-105c to retain its atmosphere, given its closer proximity to the host star. To test this hypothesis, we simultaneously analyzed radial velocities (RVs) and transit timing variations (TTVs) of the Kepler-105 system, measuring disparate masses of $M_b = 10.8\pm2.3$ M$_\oplus$ ($\rho_b = 0.97\pm0.22$ g cm$^{-3}$) and $M_c = 5.6\pm1.2$ M$_\oplus$ ($\rho_c = 2.64\pm0.61$ g cm$^{-3}$). Based on these masses, the difference in gas envelope content of the Kepler-105 planets could be entirely due to photoevaporation (in 76\% of scenarios), although other mechanisms like core-powered mass loss could have played a role for some planet albedos.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures, 2 table

Overfitting Affects the Reliability of Radial Velocity Mass Estimates of the V1298 Tau Planets

Mass, radius, and age measurements of young (<100 Myr) planets have the power to shape our understanding of planet formation. However, young stars tend to be extremely variable in both photometry and radial velocity, which makes constraining these properties challenging. The V1298 Tau system of four ~0.5 Rjup planets transiting a pre-main sequence star presents an important, if stress-inducing, opportunity to directly observe and measure the properties of infant planets. Su\'arez-Mascare\~no et al. (2021) published radial-velocity-derived masses for two of the V1298 Tau planets using a state-of-the-art Gaussian Process regression framework. The planetary densities computed from these masses were surprisingly high, implying extremely rapid contraction after formation in tension with most existing planet formation theories. In an effort to further constrain the masses of the V1298 Tau planets, we obtained 36 RVs using Keck/HIRES, and analyzed them in concert with published RVs and photometry. Through performing a suite of cross validation tests, we found evidence that the preferred model of SM21 suffers from overfitting, defined as the inability to predict unseen data, rendering the masses unreliable. We detail several potential causes of this overfitting, many of which may be important for other RV analyses of other active stars, and recommend that additional time and resources be allocated to understanding and mitigating activity in active young stars such as V1298 Tau.Comment: 26 pages, 12 figures; published in A

A systematic validation of hot Neptunes in TESS data

We statistically validated a sample of hot Neptune candidates applying a two-step vetting technique using DAVE and TRICERATOPS. We performed a systematic validation of 250 transit-like events in the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) archive in the parameter region defined by $P\leq 4$ d and $3R_\oplus\leq R\leq 5R_\oplus$. Through our analysis, we identified 18 hot Neptune-sized candidates, with a false positive probability $<50\%$. Nine of these planet candidates still need to be confirmed. For each of the nine targets we retrieved the stellar parameters using ARIADNE and derived constraints on the planetary parameters by fitting the lightcurves with the juliet package. Within this sample of nine candidates, we statistically validated (i.e, with false positive probability < $0.3\%$) two systems (TOI-277 b and TOI-1288 b) by re-processing the candidates with TRICERATOPS along with follow-up observations. These new validated exoplanets expand the known hot Neptunes population and are high-priority targets for future radial velocities follow-up.Comment: 24 pages, 20 figures. Accepted for publication on MNRA