Which Bank is the "Central" Bank? An Application of Markov Theory to the Canadian Large Value Transfer System

We use a method similar to Google's PageRank procedure to rank banks in the Canadian Large Value Transfer System (LVTS). Along the way we obtain estimates of the payment processing speeds for the individual banks. These differences in processing speeds are essential for explaining why observed daily distributions of liquidity differ from the initial distributions, which are determined by the credit limits selected by banks.Payment, clearing, and settlement systems

The aesthetic of empiricism: self, knowledge and reality in Mid-Victorian prose

Long ago, in Keywords, Raymond Williams remarked with some justification that "Empirical and the related empiricism are now in some contexts among the most difficult words in the language." That difficulty has yet to be fully recognised or elaborated by contemporary criticism. In an era when discontinuity, difference and heterogeneity have become privileged tenets of criticism, empiricism has come to be regarded as the other of contemporary thought and synonymous with positivism or objectivism. Yet empiricism has rarely, if ever, had this philosophical implication; Dr Johnson, we recall, kicked the stone precisely to expose empiricism's baroque falsifications of commonsense. Focusing on the mid-nineteenth century, this thesis argues that far from initiating a crude representationalism, empiricism predicated its search for knowledge on a profound instability, one embodied within the textual language through which it sought its articulation. That instability stemmed from the dominant view that the self was constructed in and through experience, and perforce restlessly alterable or unfinished, while also being central to the methodology of observation underlying the empiricists' view of the world. The contingent self was conceived simultaneously as the route towards knowledge and its obstacle. In the work of John Ruskin, G. H. Lewes, George Eliot, Alexander Bain and Herbert Spencer the principle of relationality consistently shapes their view of reality and their epistemological drive. By considering a variety of their writing—philosophical, literary, psychological, scientific, critical—it will be argued that 'empiricism' provides a useful rubric for their common, primary, deep-seated epistemological impulse. In various self-conscious ways, their arguments unfold in destabilising narrative forms, dramatising the principles of limitation and provisionality so crucial to their meaning. Rather like the reality they attempt to describe, works like Bain's The Senses and the Intellect (1855) or Lewes's Problems of Life and Mind (1874-9) adopt a sprawling, proliferating structure which seems to register a restless struggle to unify knowledge, and by dramatising this resistance to the synthesising will they acknowledge in and through narrative itself the impossibility of some perfect (and therefore fixed) organisation. The many volumes and reworked editions in which mid-Victorian empiricism appeared provide formidable material evidence of this revisability principle, incorporating the theme of multiplicity at a narrative level. Novels like Middlemarch (1871-2), to take a famous example, not only make connective structures (networks, webs, tangles) a way of describing the morphology of communal life, they assimilate this logic of association into their narrative method. In all cases, associational possibility becomes encoded in form. After historically retracing these questions to the figure of David Hume, subsequent chapters explore different aspects of narrative and knowledge in these writers: the aesthetic of realism, the problems of perception, the knowing body, and the negotiation of relativism. To the extent that this relational epistemology shapes these works—whether multi-volume treatises, novels or periodical essays—it might be thought of as determining the aesthetic of empiricism

Potential Maximization and Coalition Government Formation

A model of coalition government formation is presented in which inefficient, non-minimal winning coalitions may form in Nash equilibrium. Predictions for five games are presented and tested experimentally. The experimental data support potential maximization as a refinement of Nash equilibrium. In particular, the data support the prediction that non-minimal winning coalitions occur when the distance between policy positions of the parties is small relative to the value of forming the government. These conditions hold in games 1, 3, 4 and 5, where subjects played their unique potential-maximizing strategies 91, 52, 82 and 84 percent of the time, respectively. In the remaining game (Game 2) experimental data support the prediction of a minimal winning coalition. Players A and B played their unique potential-maximizing strategies 84 and 86 percent of the time, respectively, and the predicted minimal-winning government formed 92 percent of the time (all strategy choices for player C conform with potential maximization in Game 2). In Games 1, 2, 4 and 5 over 98 percent of the observed Nash equilibrium outcomes were those predicted by potential maximization. Other solution concepts including iterated elimination of dominated strategies and strong/coalition proof Nash equilibrium are also tested.Coalition formation, Potential maximization, Nash equilibrium refinements, Experimental study, Minimal winning

Development of materials to support parents whose babies cry excessively: findings and health service implications

Aim: To develop evidence-based materials which provide information and support for parents who are concerned about their baby's excessive crying. As well as meeting these parents' needs, the aim was to develop a package of materials suitable for use by the UK National Health Service (NHS). Background: Parents report that around 20% of 1-4 month-old infants in western countries cry excessively without apparent reason. Traditionally, research has focused on the crying and its causes. However, evidence is growing that how parents evaluate and respond to the crying needs to receive equal attention. This focus encompasses parental resources, vulnerabilities, wellbeing, and mental health. At present, the UK NHS lacks a set of routine provisions to support parents who are concerned about their baby's excessive crying. The rationales, methods and findings from a study developing materials for this purpose are reported. Method: Following a literature review, 20 parents whose babies previously cried excessively took part in focus groups or interviews. They provided reports on their experiences and the supports they would have liked when their baby was crying excessively. In addition, they identified their preferred delivery methods and devices for accessing information and rated four example support packages identified by the literature review. Findings: During the period their baby cried excessively, most parents visited a health service professional and most considered these direct contacts to have provided helpful information and support. Websites were similarly popular. Telephones and tablets were the preferred means of accessing online information. Groups to meet other parents were considered an important additional resource by all the parents. Three package elements - a Surviving Crying website, a printed version of the website, and a programme of Cognitive Behaviour Therapy-based support sessions delivered to parents by a qualified practitioner, were developed for further evaluation

Development of materials to support parents whose babies cry excessively: findings and health service implications

Aim: To develop evidence-based materials which provide information and support for parents who are concerned about their baby's excessive crying. As well as meeting these parents' needs, the aim was to develop a package of materials suitable for use by the UK National Health Service (NHS). Background: Parents report that around 20% of 1-4 month-old infants in western countries cry excessively without apparent reason. Traditionally, research has focused on the crying and its causes. However, evidence is growing that how parents evaluate and respond to the crying needs to receive equal attention. This focus encompasses parental resources, vulnerabilities, wellbeing, and mental health. At present, the UK NHS lacks a set of routine provisions to support parents who are concerned about their baby's excessive crying. The rationales, methods and findings from a study developing materials for this purpose are reported. Method: Following a literature review, 20 parents whose babies previously cried excessively took part in focus groups or interviews. They provided reports on their experiences and the supports they would have liked when their baby was crying excessively. In addition, they identified their preferred delivery methods and devices for accessing information and rated four example support packages identified by the literature review. Findings: During the period their baby cried excessively, most parents visited a health service professional and most considered these direct contacts to have provided helpful information and support. Websites were similarly popular. Telephones and tablets were the preferred means of accessing online information. Groups to meet other parents were considered an important additional resource by all the parents. Three package elements - a Surviving Crying website, a printed version of the website, and a programme of Cognitive Behaviour Therapy-based support sessions delivered to parents by a qualified practitioner, were developed for further evaluation

The distribution and properties of DLAs at z ≤\leq 2 in the EAGLE simulations

Determining the spatial distribution and intrinsic physical properties of neutral hydrogen on cosmological scales is one of the key goals of next-generation radio surveys. We use the EAGLE galaxy formation simulations to assess the properties of damped Lyman-alpha absorbers (DLAs) that are associated with galaxies and their underlying dark matter haloes between 0 $\leq$ z $\leq$ 2. We find that the covering fraction of DLAs increases at higher redshift; a significant fraction of neutral atomic hydrogen (HI) resides in the outskirts of galaxies with stellar mass greater than or equal to 10$^{10}$ M$_\odot$; and the covering fraction of DLAs in the circumgalactic medium (CGM) is enhanced relative to that of the interstellar medium (ISM) with increasing halo mass. Moreover, we find that the mean density of the HI in galaxies increases with increasing stellar mass, while the DLAs in high- and low-halo-mass systems have higher column densities than those in galaxies with intermediate halo masses (~ 10$^{12}$ M$_\odot$ at z = 0). These high-impact CGM DLAs in high-stellar-mass systems tend to be metal-poor, likely tracing smooth accretion. Overall, our results point to the CGM playing an important role in DLA studies at high redshift (z $\geq$ 1). However, their properties are impacted both by numerical resolution and the detailed feedback prescriptions employed in cosmological simulations, particularly that of AGN.Comment: 25 pages. Accepted for publication in MNRA

A support package for parents of excessively crying infants: development and feasibility study.

BACKGROUND: Around 20% of 1- to 4-month-old infants cry for long periods without an apparent reason. Traditionally, this was attributed to gastrointestinal disorder ('colic'), but evidence shows that just 5% of infants cry a lot because of organic disturbances; in most cases, the crying is attributable to normal developmental processes. This has led to a focus on the impact of the crying on parents. Parental vulnerabilities influence how parents evaluate and respond to the crying and predict adverse outcomes. By developing evidence-based services that support parents, this study was designed to take the first steps towards national health services that enhance the coping and well-being of parents whose babies excessively cry. Related aims were to improve these infants' outcomes and how NHS money is spent. OBJECTIVES: To develop a novel intervention package to support parents of excessively crying infants and to examine the feasibility of delivering and evaluating it in the NHS. DESIGN: Stage 1 of this study aimed to (1) complete a literature review to identify example support materials, (2) obtain parents' guidance on the support needed when a baby cries excessively, together with their evaluation of the example materials, and (3) develop a support package based on the results. Stage 2 aimed to (1) recruit 60 parents whose babies were currently excessively crying, (2) assess parents' and NHS professionals' willingness to complete a study of the support package, (3) measure the use and evaluation of the package components, (4) estimate the package component costs and (5) provide evidence on the feasibility and methods for a large-scale trial. SETTING: Primary health care. PARTICIPANTS: Stage 1: 20 parents of previously excessively crying infants and 55 health visitors (HVs) or specialist community public health nurses (SCPHNs). Stage 2: 57 parents of currently excessively crying infants and 124 HVs/SCPHNs. INTERVENTIONS: The support package included a website, a printed booklet and a programme of cognitive-behavioural therapy-based sessions delivered to parents by a qualified practitioner. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: (1) Demographic data, (2) figures for parents' use of the package components and continuation in the study, (3) parents' and HVs'/SCPHNs' ratings of the package components and suitability for NHS use, (4) questionnaire measures of parental well-being and infant health and (5) costs. RESULTS: Most parents (95%) accessed the website or printed materials and half (51%) attended the practitioner sessions. All 52 parents and 85% of HVs/SCPHNs providing data would support the inclusion of the package in the NHS. It was associated with reduced parental frustration, anxiety, depression, reported infant crying and contacts with health professionals and increased knowledge about crying. Methods for a full trial and figures for the cost of excessive infant crying for the NHS and each package element were identified. LIMITATIONS: No control group was included. Most of the recruited parents were white, well educated and in stable relationships. CONCLUSIONS: Parents and HVs/SCPHNs recognise the need for NHS provisions that support parents of excessively crying babies and consider the materials developed to meet that need. A full-scale randomised controlled trial is feasible and desirable. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN84975637. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 23, No. 56. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information