Armed Conflict and Early Human Capital Accumulation: Evidence from Cameroon's Anglophone Conflict

This paper examines the impact of the Anglophone Conflict in Cameroon on human capital accumulation. Using high-quality individual-level data on test scores and information on conflict-related violent events, a difference-in-differences design is employed to estimate the conflict's causal effects. The results show that an increase in violent events and conflict-related deaths causes a significant decline in test scores in reading and mathematics. The conflict also leads to higher rates of teacher absenteeism and reduced access to electricity in schools. These findings highlight the adverse consequences of conflict-related violence on human capital accumulation, particularly within the Anglophone subsystem. The study emphasizes the disproportionate burden faced by Anglophone pupils due to language-rooted tensions and segregated educational systems

Religious Competition, Culture and Domestic Violence: Evidence from Colombia

This paper studies how religious competition, as measured by the emergence of religious organizations with innovative worship styles and cultural practices, impacts domestic violence. Using data from Colombia, the study estimates a two-way fixed-effects model and reveals that the establishment of the first non-Catholic church in a predominantly Catholic municipality leads to a significant decrease in reported cases of domestic violence. This effect persists in the long run, indicating that religious competition introduces values and practices that discourage domestic violence, such as household stability and reduced male dominance. Additionally, the effect is more pronounced in municipalities with less clustered social networks, suggesting the diffusion of these values and practices through social connections. This research contributes to the understanding of how culture influences domestic violence, emphasizing the role of religious competition as a catalyst for cultural change

Culture, Gender, and Labor Force Participation: Evidence from Colombia

This study investigates the impact of integrating gender equality into the Colombian constitution of 1991 on attitudes towards gender equality, experiences of gender-based discrimination, and labor market participation. Using a difference-in-discontinuities framework, we compare individuals exposed to mandatory high school courses on the Constitution with those who were not exposed. Our findings show a significant increase in labor market participation, primarily driven by women. Exposure to these courses also shapes attitudes towards gender equality, with men demonstrating greater support. Women report experiencing less gender-based discrimination. Importantly, our results suggest that women's increased labor market participation is unlikely due to reduced barriers from male partners. A disparity in opinions regarding traditional gender norms concerning household domains is observed between men and women, highlighting an ongoing power struggle within the home. However, the presence of a younger woman in the household appears to influence men's more positive view of gender equality, potentially indicating a desire to empower younger women in their future lives. These findings highlight the crucial role of cultural shocks and the constitutional inclusion of women's rights in shaping labor market dynamics

Essays in political economy

Cette thése relie trois articles sur l'économie politique. Ces articles analysent à la fois théoriquement et empiriquement si, et dans quelle mesure, trois phénomènes politiques différents (les partis politiques, les guerres civiles et les menaces externes), et leur interaction, influent sur les résultats économiques. Le premier chapitre étudie l'impact de la présence au pouvoir des politiciens de nouveaux partis politiques sur la taille du gouvernement. Le chapitre se concentre sur les municipalités colombiennes, où les nouveaux partis politiques ont été nombreux et fructueux au cours des dernières années. Les estimations par régressions sur discontinuité montrent que les dépenses publiques et les recettes fiscales sont significativement plus élevées dans les municipalités gouvernées par un maire d'un nouveau parti politique. En utilisant des informations sur la politique locale et des caractéristiques des nouveaux partis, je soutiens que ce résultat peut être expliqué par le fait qu'il y a moins d'information sur les politiciens de nouveaux partis que les politiciens des partis traditionnels. Le deuxième chapitre développe une nouvelle explication de l'impact des guerres civiles et des conflits interétatiques sur le state-building qui repose sur l'idée que les protagonistes de ces deux types de conflits peuvent avoir un lien (ethnique ou idéologique). Un premier résultat montre que la force de ce lien détermine si les conflits contre des adversaires internes (i.e. guerres civiles) ou des ennemis externes (i.e. conflits interétatiques) sont complémentaires ou se substituent, conduisant à plus ou moins d'investissement en capacité fiscale. La théorie prédit également un rôle non trivial de la stabilité politique dans la relation entre les deux types de conflits et la capacité fiscale: un deuxième résultat montre que, bien que la stabilité politique se traduit par moins de capacité fiscale, plus de stabilité n'implique pas plus de state-building. Leur équivalence dépend du niveau de cohésion des institutions. Un nouveau mécanisme par lequel plus de stabilité politique peut impliquer moins de state-building est proposé. En outre, il est démontré que des corrélations dans les données cross-country sont compatibles avec la théorie. Le troisième chapitre examine la relation entre la probabilité d'occurrence d'un conflit intérieur violent et le risque qu'un tel conflit "s'externalise" (c'est à dire se propage dans un autre pays en devenant un conflit interétatique). Je considère une situation dans laquelle un conflit interne entre un gouvernement et un groupe rebelle peut s'externaliser. Je montre que le risque d'externalisation augmente la probabilité d'un accord de paix, mais seulement si le gouvernement est suffisamment puissant par rapport aux rebelles, et si le risque d'externalisation est suffisamment élevé. Je montre comment ce modèle aide à comprendre les récents pourparlers de paix entre le gouvernement colombien et le groupe le plus puissant des rebelles dans le pays, les FARC.This dissertation ties together three papers on political economy. These papers explore both theoretically and empirically whether, and to what extent, three different political phenomena (political parties, civil wars and external threats), and their interaction, affect economic outcomes. The first chapter investigates the impact of the presence in power of politicians from new parties on the size of government. The chapter focuses on Colombian municipalities, where new parties have been numerous and successful in recent years. Regression discontinuity estimates show that public spending and tax revenue are significantly higher in municipalities governed by a mayor from a new party. Using information about local politics and the features of the new parties, as well as a model of political incumbency, I argue that this result can be explained by the fact that there is less information on politicians from new parties than on politicians from traditional parties. The second chapter develops an novel explanation of the impact of both civil war and interstate disputes on state building based on the idea that the protagonists of these two types of conflicts might have an link (ethnic or ideological). A first result shows that the strength of this link determines whether conflicts fought against internal adversaries (i.e. civil wars) or external enemies (i.e. interstate disputes) complement or substitute each other, leading to larger or smaller investments in fiscal capacity. The theory also predicts a non trivial role of political stability in channelling the relation between both kinds of conflicts and fiscal capacity: a second result shows that while less political stability translates into less fiscal capacity, more stability does not automatically imply more state building. Whether or not they are equivalent depends on how cohesive institutions are. A novel mechanism through which more political stability might imply less state building is proposed. Additionally, it is shown that some correlations in cross-country data are consistent with the theory. The third chapter investigates the relationship between the likelihood of a violent domestic conflict and the risk that such a conflict ``externalizes'' (i.e. spreads to another country by becoming an international dispute). I consider a situation in which a domestic conflict between a government and a rebel group externalizes. I show that the risk of externalization increases the likelihood of a peaceful outcome, but only if the government is sufficiently powerful relative to the rebels, and if the risk of externalization is sufficiently high. I show how this model helps to understand recent intriguing peace talks between the Colombian government and the most powerful rebel group in the country, the FARC

Does Obamacare Care? A Fuzzy Difference-in-discontinuities Approach

This paper explores the use of a fuzzy regression discontinuity design where multiple treatments are applied at the threshold. The identification results show that, under the very strong assumption that the change in the probability of treatment at the cutoff is equal across treatments, a difference-in-discontinuities estimator identifies the treatment effect of interest. The point estimates of the treatment effect using a simple fuzzy difference-in-discontinuities design are biased if the change in the probability of a treatment applying at the cutoff differs across treatments. Modifications of the fuzzy difference-in-discontinuities approach that rely on milder assumptions are also proposed. Our results suggest caution is needed when applying before-and-after methods in the presence of fuzzy discontinuities. Using data from the National Health Interview Survey, we apply this new identification strategy to evaluate the causal effect of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on older Americans' health care access and utilization. Our results suggest that the ACA has (1) led to a 5% increase in the hospitalization rate of elderly Americans, (2) increased the probability of delaying care for cost reasons by 3.6%, and (3) exacerbated cost-related barriers to follow-up care and continuity of care: 7% more elderly individuals could not afford prescriptions, 7% more could not see a specialist, and 5.5% more could not afford a follow-up visit. Our results can be explained by an increase in the demand for health services without a corresponding adjustment in supply following the implementation of the ACA

Clonal chromosomal mosaicism and loss of chromosome Y in elderly men increase vulnerability for SARS-CoV-2

The pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19) had an estimated overall case fatality ratio of 1.38% (pre-vaccination), being 53% higher in males and increasing exponentially with age. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, we found 133 cases (1.42%) with detectable clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations (mCA) and 226 males (5.08%) with acquired loss of chromosome Y (LOY). Individuals with clonal mosaic events (mCA and/or LOY) showed a 54% increase in the risk of COVID-19 lethality. LOY is associated with transcriptomic biomarkers of immune dysfunction, pro-coagulation activity and cardiovascular risk. Interferon-induced genes involved in the initial immune response to SARS-CoV-2 are also down-regulated in LOY. Thus, mCA and LOY underlie at least part of the sex-biased severity and mortality of COVID-19 in aging patients. Given its potential therapeutic and prognostic relevance, evaluation of clonal mosaicism should be implemented as biomarker of COVID-19 severity in elderly people. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, individuals with clonal mosaic events (clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations and/or loss of chromosome Y) showed an increased risk of COVID-19 lethality

Canagliflozin and renal outcomes in type 2 diabetes and nephropathy

BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes mellitus is the leading cause of kidney failure worldwide, but few effective long-term treatments are available. In cardiovascular trials of inhibitors of sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2), exploratory results have suggested that such drugs may improve renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS In this double-blind, randomized trial, we assigned patients with type 2 diabetes and albuminuric chronic kidney disease to receive canagliflozin, an oral SGLT2 inhibitor, at a dose of 100 mg daily or placebo. All the patients had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) of 30 to <90 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area and albuminuria (ratio of albumin [mg] to creatinine [g], >300 to 5000) and were treated with renin–angiotensin system blockade. The primary outcome was a composite of end-stage kidney disease (dialysis, transplantation, or a sustained estimated GFR of <15 ml per minute per 1.73 m2), a doubling of the serum creatinine level, or death from renal or cardiovascular causes. Prespecified secondary outcomes were tested hierarchically. RESULTS The trial was stopped early after a planned interim analysis on the recommendation of the data and safety monitoring committee. At that time, 4401 patients had undergone randomization, with a median follow-up of 2.62 years. The relative risk of the primary outcome was 30% lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group, with event rates of 43.2 and 61.2 per 1000 patient-years, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59 to 0.82; P=0.00001). The relative risk of the renal-specific composite of end-stage kidney disease, a doubling of the creatinine level, or death from renal causes was lower by 34% (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.81; P<0.001), and the relative risk of end-stage kidney disease was lower by 32% (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.86; P=0.002). The canagliflozin group also had a lower risk of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.95; P=0.01) and hospitalization for heart failure (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.80; P<0.001). There were no significant differences in rates of amputation or fracture. CONCLUSIONS In patients with type 2 diabetes and kidney disease, the risk of kidney failure and cardiovascular events was lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group at a median follow-up of 2.62 years

Armed Conflict and Early Human Capital Accumulation: Evidence from Cameroon's Anglophone Conflict

This paper examines the impact of the Anglophone Conflict in Cameroon on human capital accumulation. Using high-quality individual-level data on test scores and information on conflict-related violent events, a difference-in-differences design is employed to estimate the conflict's causal effects. The results show that an increase in violent events and conflict-related deaths causes a significant decline in test scores in reading and mathematics. The conflict also leads to higher rates of teacher absenteeism and reduced access to electricity in schools. These findings highlight the adverse consequences of conflict-related violence on human capital accumulation, particularly within the Anglophone subsystem. The study emphasizes the disproportionate burden faced by Anglophone pupils due to language-rooted tensions and segregated educational systems