The flight of information: New approaches for investigating aviation accident causation

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.The investigation and modelling of aviation accident causation is dominated by linear models. Aviation is, however, a complex system and as such suffers from being artificially manipulated into non-complex models and methods. This thesis addresses this issue by developing a new approach to investigating aviation accident causation through information networks. These networks centralise communication and the flow of information as key indicators of a system‟s health and risk. The holistic approach focuses on the system itself rather than any individual event. The activity and communication of constituent elements, both human and non-human agents, within that system is identified and highlights areas of system failure. The model offers many potential developments and some key areas are studied in this research. Through the centralisation of barriers and information nodes the method can be applied to almost any situation. The application of Bayesian mathematics to historical data populations provides scope for studying error migration and barrier manipulation. The thesis also provides application of these predictions to a flight simulator study in an attempt of validation. Beyond this the thesis also discusses the applicability of the approach to industry. Through working with a legacy airline the methods discussed are used as the basis for a new and forward-thinking safety management system. This holistic approach focuses on the system environment, the activity that takes place within it, the strategies used to conduct this activity, the way in which the constituent parts of the system (both human and non-human) interact and the behaviour required. Each stage of this thesis identifies and expands upon the potential of the information network approach maintaining firm focus on the overall health of a system. It is contended that through the further development and application of this approach, understanding of aviation risk can be improved

Hypercoagulability progresses to hypocoagulability during evolution of acetaminophen-induced acute liver injury in pigs

Increases in prothrombin time (PT) and international normalised ratio (INR) characterise acute liver injury (ALI) and failure (ALF), yet a wide heterogeneity in clotting abnormalities exists. This study defines evolution of coagulopathy in 10 pigs with acetaminophen (APAP)-induced ALI compared to 3 Controls. APAP administration began at 0 h and continued to ‘ALF’, defined as INR >3. In APAP pigs, INR was 1.05 ± 0.02 at 0 h, 2.15 ± 0.43 at 16 h and > 3 at 18 ± 1 h. At 12 h thromboelastography (TEG) demonstrated increased clot formation rate, associated with portal vein platelet aggregates and reductions in protein C, protein S, antithrombin and A Disintegrin and Metalloprotease with Thrombospondin type 1 repeats–13 (ADAMTS-13) to 60%, 24%, 47% and 32% normal respectively. At 18 ± 1 h, INR > 3 was associated with: hypocoagulable TEG profile with heparin-like effect; falls in thrombin generation, Factor V and Factor VIII to 52%, 19% and 17% normal respectively; further decline in anticoagulants; thrombocytopenia; neutrophilia and endotoxemia. Multivariate analysis, found that ADAMTS-13 was an independent predictor of a hypercoagulable TEG profile and platelet count, endotoxin, Protein C and fibrinogen were independent predictors of a hypocoagulable TEG profile. INR remained normal in Controls. Dynamic changes in coagulation occur with progression of ALI: a pro-thrombotic state progresses to hypocoagulability

Evaluation of a very brief pedometer-based physical activity intervention delivered in NHS Health Checks in England: The VBI randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND:The majority of people do not achieve recommended levels of physical activity. There is a need for effective, scalable interventions to promote activity. Self-monitoring by pedometer is a potentially suitable strategy. We assessed the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a very brief (5-minute) pedometer-based intervention ('Step It Up') delivered as part of National Health Service (NHS) Health Checks in primary care. METHODS AND FINDINGS:The Very Brief Intervention (VBI) Trial was a two parallel-group, randomised controlled trial (RCT) with 3-month follow-up, conducted in 23 primary care practices in the East of England. Participants were 1,007 healthy adults aged 40 to 74 years eligible for an NHS Health Check. They were randomly allocated (1:1) using a web-based tool between October 1, 2014, and December 31, 2015, to either intervention (505) or control group (502), stratified by primary care practice. Participants were aware of study group allocation. Control participants received the NHS Health Check only. Intervention participants additionally received Step It Up: a 5-minute face-to-face discussion, written materials, pedometer, and step chart. The primary outcome was accelerometer-based physical activity volume at 3-month follow-up adjusted for sex, 5-year age group, and general practice. Secondary outcomes included time spent in different intensities of physical activity, self-reported physical activity, and economic measures. We conducted an in-depth fidelity assessment on a subsample of Health Check consultations. Participants' mean age was 56 years, two-thirds were female, they were predominantly white, and two-thirds were in paid employment. The primary outcome was available in 859 (85.3%) participants. There was no significant between-group difference in activity volume at 3 months (adjusted intervention effect 8.8 counts per minute [cpm]; 95% CI -18.7 to 36.3; p = 0.53). We found no significant between-group differences in the secondary outcomes of step counts per day, time spent in moderate or vigorous activity, time spent in vigorous activity, and time spent in moderate-intensity activity (accelerometer-derived variables); as well as in total physical activity, home-based activity, work-based activity, leisure-based activity, commuting physical activity, and screen or TV time (self-reported physical activity variables). Of the 505 intervention participants, 491 (97%) received the Step it Up intervention. Analysis of 37 intervention consultations showed that 60% of Step it Up components were delivered faithfully. The intervention cost £18.04 per participant. Incremental cost to the NHS per 1,000-step increase per day was £96 and to society was £239. Adverse events were reported by 5 intervention participants (of which 2 were serious) and 5 control participants (of which 2 were serious). The study's limitations include a participation rate of 16% and low return of audiotapes by practices for fidelity assessment. CONCLUSIONS:In this large well-conducted trial, we found no evidence of effect of a plausible very brief pedometer intervention embedded in NHS Health Checks on objectively measured activity at 3-month follow-up. TRIAL REGISTRATION:Current Controlled Trials (ISRCTN72691150)

Testing the Accuracy of Aerial Surveys for Large Mammals: An Experiment with African Savanna Elephants (Loxodonta africana)

Accurate counts of animals are critical for prioritizing conservation efforts. Past research, however, suggests that observers on aerial surveys may fail to detect all individuals of the target species present in the survey area. Such errors could bias population estimates low and confound trend estimation. We used two approaches to assess the accuracy of aerial surveys for African savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana) in northern Botswana. First, we used double-observer sampling, in which two observers make observations on the same herds, to estimate detectability of elephants and determine what variables affect it. Second, we compared total counts, a complete survey of the entire study area, against sample counts, in which only a portion of the study area is sampled. Total counts are often considered a complete census, so comparing total counts against sample counts can help to determine if sample counts are underestimating elephant numbers. We estimated that observers detected only 76% ± SE of 2% of elephant herds and 87 ± 1% of individual elephants present in survey strips. Detectability increased strongly with elephant herd size. Out of the four observers used in total, one observer had a lower detection probability than the other three, and detectability was higher in the rear row of seats than the front. The habitat immediately adjacent to animals also affected detectability, with detection more likely in more open habitats. Total counts were not statistically distinguishable from sample counts. Because, however, the double-observer samples revealed that observers missed 13% of elephants, we conclude that total counts may be undercounting elephants as well. These results suggest that elephant population estimates from both sample and total counts are biased low. Because factors such as observer and habitat affected detectability of elephants, comparisons of elephant populations across time or space may be confounded. We encourage survey teams to incorporate detectability analysis in all aerial surveys for mammals

A systematic analysis of host factors reveals a Med23-interferon-λ regulatory axis against herpes simplex virus type 1 replication

Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) is a neurotropic virus causing vesicular oral or genital skin lesions, meningitis and other diseases particularly harmful in immunocompromised individuals. To comprehensively investigate the complex interaction between HSV-1 and its host we combined two genome-scale screens for host factors (HFs) involved in virus replication. A yeast two-hybrid screen for protein interactions and a RNA interference (RNAi) screen with a druggable genome small interfering RNA (siRNA) library confirmed existing and identified novel HFs which functionally influence HSV-1 infection. Bioinformatic analyses found the 358 HFs were enriched for several pathways and multi-protein complexes. Of particular interest was the identification of Med23 as a strongly anti-viral component of the largely pro-viral Mediator complex, which links specific transcription factors to RNA polymerase II. The anti-viral effect of Med23 on HSV-1 replication was confirmed in gain-of-function gene overexpression experiments, and this inhibitory effect was specific to HSV-1, as a range of other viruses including Vaccinia virus and Semliki Forest virus were unaffected by Med23 depletion. We found Med23 significantly upregulated expression of the type III interferon family (IFN-λ) at the mRNA and protein level by directly interacting with the transcription factor IRF7. The synergistic effect of Med23 and IRF7 on IFN-λ induction suggests this is the major transcription factor for IFN-λ expression. Genotypic analysis of patients suffering recurrent orofacial HSV-1 outbreaks, previously shown to be deficient in IFN-λ secretion, found a significant correlation with a single nucleotide polymorphism in the IFN-λ3 (IL28b) promoter strongly linked to Hepatitis C disease and treatment outcome. This paper describes a link between Med23 and IFN-λ, provides evidence for the crucial role of IFN-λ in HSV-1 immune control, and highlights the power of integrative genome-scale approaches to identify HFs critical for disease progression and outcome

Association between sucrose intake and risk of overweight and obesity in a prospective sub-cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk).

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the present study was to investigate associations between sugar intake and overweight using dietary biomarkers in the Norfolk cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Norfolk). DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: EPIC-Norfolk in the UK, recruitment between 1993 and 1997. SUBJECTS: Men and women (n 1734) aged 39-77 years. Sucrose intake was assessed using 7 d diet diaries. Baseline spot urine samples were analysed for sucrose by GC-MS. Sucrose concentration adjusted by specific gravity was used as a biomarker for intake. Regression analyses were used to investigate associations between sucrose intake and risk of BMI>25·0 kg/m2 after three years of follow-up. RESULTS: After three years of follow-up, mean BMI was 26·8 kg/m2. Self-reported sucrose intake was significantly positively associated with the biomarker. Associations between the biomarker and BMI were positive (β=0·25; 95 % CI 0·08, 0·43), while they were inverse when using self-reported dietary data (β=-1·40; 95 % CI -1·81, -0·99). The age- and sex-adjusted OR for BMI>25·0 kg/m2 in participants in the fifth v. first quintile was 1·54 (95 % CI 1·12, 2·12; P trend=0·003) when using biomarker and 0·56 (95 % CI 0·40, 0·77; P trend<0·001) with self-reported dietary data. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that sucrose measured by objective biomarker but not self-reported sucrose intake is positively associated with BMI. Future studies should consider the use of objective biomarkers of sucrose intake.The authors thank all EPIC-Norfolk study participants and staff for their contribution to the study. They also thank the NIHR BRC-MRC BioRepository at the Cambridge Biomedical Campus for providing infrastructure and equipment for sample preparation. Financial support: This project was supported by the Word Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), Cancer Research UK and the Medical Research Council (MRC). WCRF, Cancer Research UK and MRC had no role in the design, analysis or writing of this article. Conflict of interest: None. Authorship: The responsibilities of the authors were as follows: G.G.C.K. developed the analytical method, conducted the statistical analyses, wrote the manuscript and had primary responsibility for the final content; N.T. conducted statistical analyses and contributed to the manuscript; J.L.G., M.A.S., L.R. and S.M.A. developed the analytical method and conducted sample analyses; M.A.H.L. and A.A.M. were responsible for dietary data analysis and contributed to the manuscript; R.N.L. was responsible for follow-up and data processing; K.-T.K. (principal investigator of EPIC-Norfolk) contributed to the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript. Ethics of human subject participation: The study received ethical approval by the Norwich District Health Authority Ethics Committee and all participants gave signed informed consent.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Cambridge University Press via http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1368980015000300

Cooperation, Norms, and Revolutions: A Unified Game-Theoretical Approach

Cooperation is of utmost importance to society as a whole, but is often challenged by individual self-interests. While game theory has studied this problem extensively, there is little work on interactions within and across groups with different preferences or beliefs. Yet, people from different social or cultural backgrounds often meet and interact. This can yield conflict, since behavior that is considered cooperative by one population might be perceived as non-cooperative from the viewpoint of another. To understand the dynamics and outcome of the competitive interactions within and between groups, we study game-dynamical replicator equations for multiple populations with incompatible interests and different power (be this due to different population sizes, material resources, social capital, or other factors). These equations allow us to address various important questions: For example, can cooperation in the prisoner's dilemma be promoted, when two interacting groups have different preferences? Under what conditions can costly punishment, or other mechanisms, foster the evolution of norms? When does cooperation fail, leading to antagonistic behavior, conflict, or even revolutions? And what incentives are needed to reach peaceful agreements between groups with conflicting interests? Our detailed quantitative analysis reveals a large variety of interesting results, which are relevant for society, law and economics, and have implications for the evolution of language and culture as well

The pattern of recurrence of adenocarcinoma of the oesophago-gastric junction

Knowledge of the pattern of recurrence of surgically treated cases of adenocarcinoma of the oesophago-gastric junction is important both for better understanding of their biological nature and for future strategic planning of therapy. The aim of this study is to demonstrate and compare the pattern of dissemination and recurrence in patients with Type I and Type II adenocarcinoma of oesophago-gastric junction. A prospective audit of the clinico-pathological features of patients who had undergone surgery with curative intent for adenocarcinoma of oesophago-gastric junction between 1991 and 1996 was undertaken. Patients were followed up by regular clinical examination. Clinical evaluation was supported by ultrasound, computerised tomography, radio-isotope bone scan, endoscopy and laparotomy each with biopsy and histology where appropriate. One hundred and sixty-nine patients with oesophago-gastric junction tumours (94 Type I and 75 Type II) have been followed up for a median of 75.3 (57–133) months. One hundred and three patients developed proven recurrent disease. The median time to recurrence was 23.3 (14.2–32.4) months for Type I and 20.5 (11.6–29.4) for Type II cancers. The most frequent type of recurrence was haematogenous (56% of Type I recurrences and 54% of Type II) of which 56% were detected within 1 year of surgery. The most frequent sites were to liver (27%), bone (18%) brain (11%) and lung (11%). Local recurrence occurred in 33% of Type I cancer and 29% of Type II recurrences. Nodal recurrence occurred in 18 and 25% of Type I and Type II cancer recurrences, most frequently to coeliac or porta hepatis nodes (64%). Only 7% of Type I and 15% of Type II cancer recurrences were by peritoneal dissemination. Type I and Type II adenocarcinoma of the oesophago-gastric junction have a predominantly early, haematogenous pattern of recurrence. There is a need to better identify the group of patients with small metastases at the time of diagnosis who are destined to develop recurrent disease in order that they may be spared surgery and those with micro metastases in order that they can be offered multi-modality therapy including early post operative or neo-adjuvant chemotherapy

Uncertainty Compensation in Human Attention: Evidence from Response Times and Fixation Durations

BACKGROUND: Uncertainty and predictability have remained at the center of the study of human attention. Yet, studies have only examined whether response times (RT) or fixations were longer or shorter under levels of stimulus uncertainty. To date, no study has examined patterns of stimuli and responses through a unifying framework of uncertainty. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We asked 29 college students to generate repeated responses to a continuous series of visual stimuli presented on a computer monitor. Subjects produced these responses by pressing on a keypad as soon a target was detected (regardless of position) while the durations of their visual fixations were recorded. We manipulated the level of stimulus uncertainty in space and time by changing the number of potential stimulus locations and time intervals between stimulus presentations. To allow the analyses to be conducted using uncertainty as common description of stimulus and response we calculated the entropy of the RT and fixation durations. We tested the hypothesis of uncertainty compensation across space and time by fitting the RT and fixation duration entropy values to a quadratic surface. The quadratic surface accounted for 80% of the variance in the entropy values of both RT and fixation durations. RT entropy increased as a function of spatial and temporal uncertainty of the stimulus, alongside a symmetric, compensatory decrease in the entropy of fixation durations as the level of spatial and temporal uncertainty of the stimuli was increased. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results demonstrate that greater uncertainty in the stimulus leads to greater uncertainty in the response, and that the effects of spatial and temporal uncertainties are compensatory. We also observed compensatory relationship across the entropies of fixation duration and RT, suggesting that a more predictable visual search strategy leads to more uncertain response patterns and vice versa