Sovereign natural disaster insurance for developing countries : a paradigm shift in catastrophe risk financing

Economic theory suggests that countries should ignore uncertainty for public investment and behave as if indifferent to risk because they can pool risks to a much greater extent than private investors can. This paper discusses the general economic theory in the case of developing countries. The analysis identifies several cases where the government's risk-neutral assumption does not hold, thus making rational the use of ex ante risk financing instruments, including sovereign insurance. The paper discusses the optimal level of sovereign insurance. It argues that, because sovereign insurance is usually more expensive than post-disaster financing, it should mainly cover immediate needs, while long-term expenditures should be financed through post-disaster financing (including ex post borrowing and tax increases). In other words, sovereign insurance should not aim at financing the long-term resource gap, but only the short-term liquidity need.Debt Markets,Hazard Risk Management,Banks&Banking Reform,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Natural Disasters

Financial protection of the state against natural disasters : a primer

This paper has been prepared for policy makers interested in establishing or strengthening financial strategies to increase the financial response capacity of governments of developing countries in the aftermath of natural disasters, while protecting their long-term fiscal balances. It analyzes various aspects of emergency financing, including the types of instruments available, their relative costs and disbursement speeds, and how these can be combined to provide cost-effective financing for the different phases that follow a disaster. The paper explains why governments are usually better served by retaining most of their natural disaster risk while using risk transfer mechanisms to manage the excess volatility of their budgets or access immediate liquidity after a disaster. Finally, it discusses innovative approaches to disaster risk financing and provides examples of strategies that developing countries have implemented in recent years.Debt Markets,Hazard Risk Management,Natural Disasters,Banks&Banking Reform,Insurance&Risk Mitigation

Rendements des Principaux Domaines d'Études au Canada des Diplômés Universitaires

Rapport de recherche présenté à la Faculté des arts et sciences en vue de l'obtention du grade de Maîtrise en sciences économiques

Earthquake vulnerability reduction program in Colombia : a probabilistic cost-benefit analysis

Cost-benefit analysis is a standard tool for determining the efficiency of planned projects. But one of the major difficulties in risk mitigation investments is that benefits are by nature uncertain. In this context, the standard approach relying on the average value of benefits may provide an incomplete picture of the efficiency of the risk mitigation project under consideration. This paper presents a probabilistic cost-benefit analysis relying on a catastrophe risk model. It produces risk metrics such as the exceedance probability curve of the benefit-cost ratio, thus providing the decisionmaker with a more complete risk analysis of the net benefits of the project. This is illustrated with the earthquake vulnerability reduction project in Colombia.Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Investment and Investment Climate,Banks&Banking Reform,Natural Disasters,Non Bank Financial Institutions

Advanced survival models for risk-factor analysis in scrapie

Because of the confounding effects of long incubation duration and flock management, accurate epidemiological studies of scrapie outbreaks are difficult to carry out. In this study, 641 Manech red-faced sheep from six scrapie-affected field flocks in Pyrénées Atlantiques, France, were monitored for clinical scrapie over a 6–9 year period. Over this period, 170 scrapie clinical cases were recorded and half of the culled animals were submitted for post-mortem transmissible spongiform encephalopathy diagnosis to assess their infectious status. Collected data were analysed using a ‘mixture cure model’ approach, which allowed for the discriminating effect of PrP genotype and flock origin on incidence and incubation period. Simulations were performed to evaluate the applicability of such a statistical model to the collected data. As expected, ARR heterozygote sheep were less at risk of becoming infected than ARQ/ARQ individuals and had a greater age at clinical onset. Conversely, when compared with ARQ/ARQ, the VRQ haplotype was associated with an increased infection risk, but not a shorter incubation period. Considering the flock effect, we observed that a high incidence rate was not associated with shorter incubation periods and that the incubation period could be significantly different in flocks harbouring similar infection risks. These results strongly support the conclusion that other parameters, such as the nature of the agent or flock management, could interfere with epidemiological dynamics of the infection in scrapie-affected flocks

Stability comparison of two absolute gravimeters: optical versus atomic interferometers

We report the direct comparison between the stabilities of two mobile absolute gravimeters of different technology: the LNE-SYRTE Cold Atom Gravimeter and FG5X\#216 of the Universit\'e du Luxembourg. These instruments rely on two different principles of operation: atomic and optical interferometry. The comparison took place in the Walferdange Underground Laboratory for Geodynamics in Luxembourg, at the beginning of the last International Comparison of Absolute Gravimeters, ICAG-2013. We analyse a 2h10 duration common measurement, and find that the CAG shows better immunity with respect to changes in the level of vibration noise, as well as a slightly better short term stability.Comment: 6 page

Geophysical investigation of the Pb-Zn deposit of Lontzen-Poppelsberg, Belgium

The drillhole information from the Lontzen-Poppelsberg site has demonstrated three orebodies and has allowed the estimation of the extension of the lodes, their dip, and the location at the ground surface. The localisation of the lodes makes them excellent targets for further exploration with geophysics. This deposit is classified as a Mississippi Valley Type (MVT) deposit. It consists mainly of Pb-Zn-Fe sulphides that display contrasting values in resistivity, chargeability, density, and magnetic susceptibility, with regards to the sedimentary host rocks. The dipole-dipole direct current (DC) resistivity and induce polarization (IP) profiles have been collected and inverted to successfully delineate the Pb-Zn mineralization and the geological structures. Short-spacing EM34 electromagnetic conductivity data were collected mainly on the top of Poppelsberg East lode and have revealed a conductive body matching with the geologically modelled mineralization. Gravity profiles have been carried out perpendicularly to the lode orientation; they show a strong structural anomaly. High resolution ground magnetic data were collected over the study area, but they showed no anomaly over the ore deposits. The geophysical inversion results are complementary to the model based on drill information, and allow us to refine the delineation of the mineralization. The identification of the geophysical signatures of this deposit permits targeting new possible mineralization in the area

Organizational and Cognitive Duality of the firm with community concept

On the basis of the recent concepts of epistemic communities and communities of practice, we show that the firm can be defined according to a form of double duality: cognitive and organisational. The interest of this approach is to put ahead the differentiated behavior from the manager and the entrepreneur inside the firm. It also puts in light the important questions concerning the organisational tensions under the vision of the knowledge-based economies.Creation of knowledge, Learning process, Routines, Community of Practice, Epistemic Community, Knowledge conversion modes, Knowledge management.