Hawaiian stream ecology as exemplified by the streams of the Kipahulu District, Haleakala National Park

Western Region, National Park Servic

Robust designs for Poisson regression models

We consider the problem of how to construct robust designs for Poisson regression models. An analytical expression is derived for robust designs for first-order Poisson regression models where uncertainty exists in the prior parameter estimates. Given certain constraints in the methodology, it may be necessary to extend the robust designs for implementation in practical experiments. With these extensions, our methodology constructs designs which perform similarly, in terms of estimation, to current techniques, and offers the solution in a more timely manner. We further apply this analytic result to cases where uncertainty exists in the linear predictor. The application of this methodology to practical design problems such as screening experiments is explored. Given the minimal prior knowledge that is usually available when conducting such experiments, it is recommended to derive designs robust across a variety of systems. However, incorporating such uncertainty into the design process can be a computationally intense exercise. Hence, our analytic approach is explored as an alternative

Retired A Stars and Their Companions VI. A Pair of Interacting Exoplanet Pairs Around the Subgiants 24 Sextanis and HD200964

We report radial velocity measurements of the G-type subgiants 24 Sextanis (=HD90043) and HD200964. Both are massive, evolved stars that exhibit periodic variations due to the presence of a pair of Jovian planets. Photometric monitoring with the T12 0.80m APT at Fairborn Observatory demonstrates both stars to be constant in brightness to <= 0.002 mag, thus strengthening the planetary interpretation of the radial velocity variations. 24 Sex b,c have orbital periods of 453.8 days and 883~days, corresponding to semimajor axes 1.333 AU and 2.08 AU, and minimum masses (Msini) 1.99 Mjup and 0.86 Mjup, assuming a stellar mass 1.54 Msun. HD200964 b,c have orbital periods of 613.8 days and 825 days, corresponding to semimajor axes 1.601 AU and 1.95 AU, and minimum masses 1.85 Mjup and 0.90 Mjup, assuming M* = 1.44 Msun. We also carry out dynamical simulations to properly account for gravitational interactions between the planets. Most, if not all, of the dynamically stable solutions include crossing orbits, suggesting that each system is locked in a mean motion resonance that prevents close encounters and provides long-term stability. The planets in the 24 Sex system likely have a period ratio near 2:1, while the HD200964 system is even more tightly packed with a period ratio close to 4:3. However, we caution that further radial velocity observations and more detailed dynamical modelling will be required to provide definitive and unique orbital solutions for both cases, and to determine whether the two systems are truly resonant.Comment: AJ accepte

The Photoeccentric Effect and Proto-Hot Jupiters I. Measuring photometric eccentricities of individual transiting planets

Exoplanet orbital eccentricities offer valuable clues about the history of planetary systems. Eccentric, Jupiter-sized planets are particularly interesting: they may link the "cold" Jupiters beyond the ice line to close-in hot Jupiters, which are unlikely to have formed in situ. To date, eccentricities of individual transiting planets primarily come from radial velocity measurements. Kepler has discovered hundreds of transiting Jupiters spanning a range of periods, but the faintness of the host stars precludes radial velocity follow-up of most. Here we demonstrate a Bayesian method of measuring an individual planet's eccentricity solely from its transit light curve using prior knowledge of its host star's density. We show that eccentric Jupiters are readily identified by their short ingress/egress/total transit durations -- part of the "photoeccentric" light curve signature of a planet's eccentricity --- even with long-cadence Kepler photometry and loosely-constrained stellar parameters. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo exploration of parameter posteriors naturally marginalizes over the periapse angle and automatically accounts for the transit probability. To demonstrate, we use three published transit light curves of HD 17156 b to measure an eccentricity of e = 0.71 +0.16/-0.09, in good agreement with the discovery value e = 0.67+/-0.08 based on 33 radial-velocity measurements. We present two additional tests using actual Kepler data. In each case the technique proves to be a viable method of measuring exoplanet eccentricities and their confidence intervals. Finally, we argue that this method is the most efficient, effective means of identifying the extremely eccentric, proto hot Jupiters predicted by Socrates et al. (2012).Comment: ApJ, 756, 122. Received 2012 April 5; accepted 2012 July 9; published 2012 August 2

Retired A Stars and Their Companions. III. Comparing the Mass-Period Distributions of Planets Around A-Type Stars and Sun-Like Stars

We present an analysis of ~5 years of Lick Observatory radial velocity measurements targeting a uniform sample of 31 intermediate-mass subgiants (1.5 < M*/Msun < 2.0) with the goal of measuring the occurrence rate of Jovian planets around (evolved) A-type stars and comparing the distributions of their orbital and physical characteristics to those of planets around Sun-like stars. We provide updated orbital solutions incorporating new radial velocity measurements for five known planet-hosting stars in our sample; uncertainties in the fitted parameters are assessed using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. The frequency of Jovian planets interior to 3 AU is 26 (+9,-8)%, which is significantly higher than the ~5-10% frequency observed around solar-mass stars. The median detection threshold for our sample includes minimum masses down to {0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 0.6, 1.3} MJup within {0.1, 0.3, 0.6, 1.0, 3.0} AU. To compare the properties of planets around intermediate-mass stars to those around solar-mass stars we synthesize a population of planets based on the parametric relationship dN ~ M^{alpha}P^{beta} dlnM dlnP, the observed planet frequency, and the detection limits we derived. We find that the values of alpha and beta for planets around solar-type stars from Cumming et al. fail to reproduce the observed properties of planets in our sample at the 4 sigma level, even when accounting for the different planet occurrence rates. Thus, the properties of planets around A stars are markedly different than those around Sun-like stars, suggesting that only a small (~ 50%) increase in stellar mass has a large influence on the formation and orbital evolution of planets.Comment: Accepted by the Astrophysical Journal; 15 pages, 15 figure

The Extragalactic Distance Scale Key Project XXVII. A Derivation of the Hubble Constant Using the Fundamental Plane and Dn-Sigma Relations in Leo I, Virgo, and Fornax

Using published photometry and spectroscopy, we construct the fundamental plane and D_n-Sigma relations in Leo I, Virgo and Fornax. The published Cepheid P-L relations to spirals in these clusters fixes the relation between angular size and metric distance for both the fundamental plane and D_n-Sigma relations. Using the locally calibrated fundamental plane, we infer distances to a sample of clusters with a mean redshift of cz \approx 6000 \kms, and derive a value of H_0=78+- 5+- 9 km/s/Mpc (random, systematic) for the local expansion rate. This value includes a correction for depth effects in the Cepheid distances to the nearby clusters, which decreased the deduced value of the expansion rate by 5% +- 5%. If one further adopts the metallicity correction to the Cepheid PL relation, as derived by the Key Project, the value of the Hubble constant would decrease by a further 6%+- 4%. These two sources of systematic error, when combined with a +- 6% error due to the uncertainty in the distance to the Large Magellanic Cloud, a +- 4% error due to uncertainties in the WFPC2 calibration, and several small sources of uncertainty in the fundamental plane analysis, combine to yield a total systematic uncertainty of +- 11%. We find that the values obtained using either the CMB, or a flow-field model, for the reference frame of the distant clusters, agree to within 1%. The Dn-Sigma relation also produces similar results, as expected from the correlated nature of the two scaling relations. A complete discussion of the sources of random and systematic error in this determination of the Hubble constant is also given, in order to facilitate comparison with the other secondary indicators being used by the Key Project.Comment: 21 pages, 3 figures, Accepted for publication in Ap

The HST Key Project on the Extragalactic Distance Scale. XXVIII. Combining the Constraints on the Hubble Constant

Since the launch of the Hubble Space Telescope nine years ago, Cepheid distances to 25 galaxies have been determined for the purpose of calibrating secondary distance indicators. A variety of these can now be calibrated, and the accompanying papers by Sakai, Kelson, Ferrarese, and Gibson employ the full set of 25 galaxies to consider the Tully-Fisher relation, the fundamental plane of elliptical galaxies, Type Ia supernovae, and surface brightness fluctuations. When calibrated with Cepheid distances, each of these methods yields a measurement of the Hubble constant and a corresponding measurement uncertainty. We combine these measurements in this paper, together with a model of the velocity field, to yield the best available estimate of the value of H_0 within the range of these secondary distance indicators and its uncertainty. The result is H_0 = 71 +/- 6 km/sec/Mpc. The largest contributor to the uncertainty of this 67% confidence level result is the distance of the Large Magellanic Cloud, which has been assumed to be 50 +/- 3 kpc

Pharmacogenetic Association of NOS3 Variants with Cardiovascular Disease in Patients with Hypertension: The GenHAT Study

Nitric oxide synthase 3 (NOS3) catalyzes production of NO in the endothelium and may play a role in cardiovascular disease (CVD). We assessed the pharmacogenetic associations of three NOS3 polymorphisms and three antihypertensive drugs with CVD outcomes. Hypertensive subjects (n = 30,280) from a multi-center, double-blind clinical trial were randomized to chlorthalidone, amlodipine, or lisinopril treatment (mean follow up, 4.9 years). Outcomes included coronary heart disease (CHD: fatal CHD and nonfatal myocardial infarction); stroke; heart failure (fatal, requiring hospitalization, or outpatient treatment); all-cause mortality; and end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Main effects of NOS3 variants on outcome and genotype-treatment interactions were tested. For NOS3 −690 C>T (rs3918226), a higher hazard ratio (HR) was found in minor allele carriers for CHD (CC = 1.00, CT+TT = 1.12 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.00–1.26), P = 0.048). For NOS3 −922 A>G (rs1800779), a higher HR was found in minor allele carriers for heart failure (AA = 1.00, AG+GG = 1.10 (CI = 1.00–1.21), P = 0.046). Significant pharmacogenetic findings were observed for stroke and all-cause mortality. For −690 C>T, a lower HR was observed for stroke in minor allele carriers when treated with amlodipine versus lisinopril (CC = 0.85 (CI = 0.73–0.99), CT+TT = 0.49 (CI = 0.31–0.80), P = 0.04). For glu298asp G>T (rs1799983), a lower HR was observed for all-cause mortality in minor allele carriers when treated with amlodipine versus lisinopril (GG = 1.01 (CI = 0.91–1.13), GT+TT = 0.85 (CI = 0.75–0.97), P = 0.04). We observed significant associations with NOS3 variants and CHD and heart failure and significant pharmacogenetic effects for stroke and all cause mortality. This suggests that NOS3 variants may potentially provide useful clinical information with respect to treatment decisions in the future

Discovery of Two Distant Type Ia Supernovae in the Hubble Deep Field North with the Advanced Camera for Surveys

We present observations of the first two supernovae discovered with the recently installed Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS) on the Hubble Space Telescope. The supernovae were found in Wide Field Camera images of the Hubble Deep Field North taken with the F775W, F850LP, and G800L optical elements as part of the ACS guaranteed time observation program. Spectra extracted from the ACS G800L grism exposures confirm that the objects are Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) at redshifts z=0.47 and z=0.95. Follow-up HST observations have been conducted with ACS in F775W and F850LP and with NICMOS in the near-infrared F110W bandpass, yielding a total of 9 flux measurements in the 3 bandpasses over a period of 50 days in the observed frame. We discuss many of the important issues in doing accurate photometry with the ACS. We analyze the multi-band light curves using two different fitting methods to calibrate the supernovae luminosities and place them on the SNe Ia Hubble diagram. The resulting distances are consistent with the redshift-distance relation of the accelerating universe model, although evolving intergalactic grey dust remains as a less likely possibility. The relative ease with which these SNe Ia were found, confirmed, and monitored demonstrates the potential ACS holds for revolutionizing the field of high-redshift SNe Ia, and therefore of testing the accelerating universe cosmology and constraining the "epoch of deceleration".Comment: 11 pages, 8 embedded figures. Accepted for publication in Ap