The trend of national and subnational burden of maternal conditions in Iran from 1990 to 2013: The study protocol

Background: It is widely accepted that maternal mortality is a proxy for maternal health status. Maternal deaths only represent the top of the iceberg; morbidity due to maternal causes apart from maternal mortality, poses a huge burden on women's families. There is an excessive need to widen the research on maternal morbidity. Here, we explain the framework of our study on maternal conditions and their burden in Iran as a part of the National and Sub-national Burden of Diseases (NASBOD) study. Methods: A systematic search will be carried out for both published and unpublished data on maternal mortality and morbidity reported between 1985 and 2013. Data collected through systematic review and those obtained from national and sub-national surveys will be extracted in a data set. Two statistical models will be applied: Bayesian Autoregressive Multi-level models and Spatio-Temporal Regression models. Models will be used to overcome the problem of data gaps across provinces, years and age groups. Discussion: In order to control and manage maternal conditions and to make more efficient and cost-effective policies, there is an excessive need for data on the burden of such diseases. There are a few sub-national analyses of the burden of disease. In the current study, burden of maternal conditions will be assessed at national and sub-national levels in Iran between 1990 and 2013. The results of this study are undoubtedly required to provide comprehensive information at the national and provincial levels to administer interventions more effectively, since the priority based policies need regional assessments and comparisons

Evaluating equality in prescribing Novel Oral Anticoagulants (NOACs) in England: the protocol of a Bayesian small area analysis

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia, affecting about 1.6% of the population in England. Novel oral anticoagulants (NOACs) are approved AF treatments that reduce stroke risk. In this study, we estimate the equality in individual NOAC prescriptions with high spatial resolution in Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) across England from 2014 to 2019. Methods A Bayesian spatio-temporal model will be used to estimate and predict the individual NOAC prescription trend on ‘prescription data’ as an indicator of health services utilisation, using a small area analysis methodology. The main dataset in this study is the “Practice Level Prescribing in England,” which contains four individual NOACs prescribed by all registered GP practices in England. We will use the defined daily dose (DDD) equivalent methodology, as recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO), to compare across space and time. Four licensed NOACs datasets will be summed per 1,000 patients at the CCG-level over time. We will also adjust for CCG-level covariates, such as demographic data, Multiple Deprivation Index, and rural-urban classification. We aim to employ the extended BYM2 model (space-time model) using the RStan package. Discussion This study suggests a new statistical modelling approach to link prescription and socioeconomic data to model pharmacoepidemiologic data. Quantifying space and time differences will allow for the evaluation of inequalities in the prescription of NOACs. The methodology will help develop geographically targeted public health interventions, campaigns, audits, or guidelines to improve areas of low prescription. This approach can be used for other medications, especially those used for chronic diseases that must be monitored over time

Geographical and socioeconomic inequalities in female breast cancer incidence and mortality in Iran: A Bayesian spatial analysis of registry data

Background In Iran, trends in breast cancer incidence and mortality have generally been monitored at national level. The purpose of this study is to examine province-level disparities in age-standardised breast cancer incidence versus mortality from 2000 to 2010 and their association with socioeconomic status. Methods In this study, data from Iran’s national cancer and death registry systems, and covariates from census and household expenditure surveys were used. We estimated the age-standardised incidence and mortality rates in women aged more than 30 years for all 31 provinces in the consecutive time intervals 2000–2003, 2004–2007 and 2008–2010 using a Bayesian spatial model. Results Mean age-standardised breast cancer incidence across provinces increased over time from 15.0 per 100,000 people (95% credible interval 12.0,18.3) in 2000–2003 to 39.6 (34.5,45.1) in 2008–2010. The mean breast cancer mortality rate declined from 10.9 (8.3,13.8) to 9.9 (7.5,12.5) deaths per 100,000 people in the same period. When grouped by wealth index quintiles, provinces in the highest quintile had higher levels of incidence and mortality. In the wealthiest quintile, reductions in mortality over time were larger than those observed among provinces in the poorest quintile. Relative breast cancer mortality decreased by 16.7% in the highest quintile compared to 10.8% in the lowest quintile. Conclusions Breast cancer incidence has increased over time, with lower incidence in the poorest provinces likely driven by underdiagnoses or late-stage diagnosis. Although the reported mortality rate is still higher in wealthier provinces, the larger decline over time in these provinces indicates a possible future reversal, with the most deprived provinces having higher mortality rates. Ongoing analysis of incidence and mortality at sub-national level is crucial in addressing inequalities in healthcare systems and public health both in Iran and elsewhere

National and sub-national trend and burden of injuries in Iran, 1990-2013: A study protocol

Background: Worldwide, injuries are a major public health concern and make a considerable contribution to the disease burden. The present study is a component of the National and Subnational Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors from 1990 to 2013 (NASBOD) study in Iran, which was designed to investigate the burden of most important injuries (road traffic injuries, falls, burns, poisonings and drownings) at the national and sub-national levels in Iran. In this paper we explain definitions, organization, injuries selection process, data sources, data gathering methods, and data analyses of the national and sub-national burden of injuries study in Iran. Methods: The burden of most important injuries in current metric of DALYs at the national and sub-national levels in Iran over 1990-2013 will be estimated through comprehensive reviews of either published or national data sources. Statistical modeling will be used to impute the missing data on the burden of selected important injuries for each district-year. Conclusion: The results of present study can help health policy makers to plan more comprehensive and cost-effective strategies at national and sub-national level for prevention and control of burden caused by injuries

Multidimensional characterization of global food supply from 1961 to 2013

Food systems are increasingly globalized and interdependent, and diets around the world are changing. To characterize national food supplies and how they have changed can inform food policies that ensure national food security, support access to healthy diets and enhance environmental sustainability. Here we analysed data for 171 countries on the availability of 18 food groups from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization to identify and track multidimensional food supply patterns from 1961 to 2013. Four predominant food-group combinations were identified that explained almost 90% of the cross-country variance in food supply: animal source and sugar, vegetable, starchy root and fruit, and seafood and oilcrops. South Korea, China and Taiwan experienced the largest changes in food supply over the past five decades, with animal source foods and sugar, vegetables and seafood and oilcrops all becoming more abundant components of the food supply. In contrast, in many Western countries the supply of animal source foods and sugar declined. Meanwhile, there was remarkably little change in the food supply in countries in the sub-Saharan Africa region. These changes led to a partial global convergence in the national supply of animal source foods and sugar, and a divergence in those of vegetables and of seafood and oilcrops. Our analysis generated a novel characterization of food supply that highlights the interdependence of multiple food types in national food systems. A better understanding of how these patterns have evolved and will continue to change is needed to support the delivery of healthy and sustainable food system policies

Antihypertensive drug effects on long-term blood pressure: an individual-level data meta-analysis of randomised clinical trials

\ua9 Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ. OBJECTIVE: Evidence from randomised trials of pharmacological treatments on long-term blood pressure (BP) reduction is limited. We investigated the antihypertensive drug effects on BP over time and across different participant characteristics. METHODS: We conducted an individual patient-level data meta-analysis of 52 large-scale randomised clinical trials in the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists\u27 Collaboration using mixed models to examine treatment effects on BP over 4 years of mean follow-up. RESULTS: There were 363 684 participants (42% women), with baseline mean age=65 years and mean systolic/diastolic BP=152/87 mm Hg, and among whom 19% were current smokers, 49% had cardiovascular disease, 28% had diabetes and 69% were taking antihypertensive treatment at baseline. Drugs were effective in lowering BP showing maximal effect after 12 months and gradually attenuating towards later years. Based on measures taken ≥12 months postrandomisation, mean systolic/diastolic BP difference (95% CI) between more and less intense BP-lowering treatment was -11.1 (-11.3 to -10.8)/-5.6 (-5.7 to -5.4) mm Hg; between active treatment and placebo was -5.1 (-5.3 to -5.0)/-2.3 (-2.4 to -2.2) mm Hg; and between active and control arms for drug comparison trials was -1.4 (-1.5 to -1.3)/-0.6 (-0.7 to -0.6) mm Hg. BP reductions were observed across different baseline BP values and ages, and by sex, history of cardiovascular disease and diabetes and prior antihypertensive treatment use. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that BP-lowering pharmacotherapy is effective in lowering BP, up to 4 years on average, in people with different characteristics. Appropriate treatment strategies are needed to sustain substantive long-term BP reductions

National, regional, and global trends in body-mass index since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 960 country-years and 9·1 million participants.

Excess bodyweight is a major public health concern. However, few worldwide comparative analyses of long-term trends of body-mass index (BMI) have been done, and none have used recent national health examination surveys. We estimated worldwide trends in population mean BMI. We estimated trends and their uncertainties of mean BMI for adults 20 years and older in 199 countries and territories. We obtained data from published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (960 country-years and 9·1 million participants). For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean BMI by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally representative. Between 1980 and 2008, mean BMI worldwide increased by 0·4 kg/m(2) per decade (95% uncertainty interval 0·2-0·6, posterior probability of being a true increase >0·999) for men and 0·5 kg/m(2) per decade (0·3-0·7, posterior probability >0·999) for women. National BMI change for women ranged from non-significant decreases in 19 countries to increases of more than 2·0 kg/m(2) per decade (posterior probabilities >0·99) in nine countries in Oceania. Male BMI increased in all but eight countries, by more than 2 kg/m(2) per decade in Nauru and Cook Islands (posterior probabilities >0·999). Male and female BMIs in 2008 were highest in some Oceania countries, reaching 33·9 kg/m(2) (32·8-35·0) for men and 35·0 kg/m(2) (33·6-36·3) for women in Nauru. Female BMI was lowest in Bangladesh (20·5 kg/m(2), 19·8-21·3) and male BMI in Democratic Republic of the Congo 19·9 kg/m(2) (18·2-21·5), with BMI less than 21·5 kg/m(2) for both sexes in a few countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and east, south, and southeast Asia. The USA had the highest BMI of high-income countries. In 2008, an estimated 1·46 billion adults (1·41-1·51 billion) worldwide had BMI of 25 kg/m(2) or greater, of these 205 million men (193-217 million) and 297 million women (280-315 million) were obese. Globally, mean BMI has increased since 1980. The trends since 1980, and mean population BMI in 2008, varied substantially between nations. Interventions and policies that can curb or reverse the increase, and mitigate the health effects of high BMI by targeting its metabolic mediators, are needed in most countries. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO

Antihypertensive drug effects on long-term blood pressure: an individual-level data meta-analysis of randomised clinical trials

Objective Evidence from randomised trials of pharmacological treatments on long-term blood pressure (BP) reduction is limited. We investigated the antihypertensive drug effects on BP over time and across different participant characteristics. Methods We conducted an individual patient-level data meta-analysis of 52 large-scale randomised clinical trials in the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists’ Collaboration using mixed models to examine treatment effects on BP over 4 years of mean follow-up. Results There were 363 684 participants (42% women), with baseline mean age=65 years and mean systolic/ diastolic BP=152/87 mm Hg, and among whom 19% were current smokers, 49% had cardiovascular disease, 28% had diabetes and 69% were taking antihypertensive treatment at baseline. Drugs were effective in lowering BP showing maximal effect after 12 months and gradually attenuating towards later years. Based on measures taken ≥12 months postrandomisation, mean systolic/diastolic BP difference (95% CI) between more and less intense BP-lowering treatment was −11.1 (−11.3 to −10.8)/−5.6 (−5.7 to −5.4) mm Hg; between active treatment and placebo was −5.1 (−5.3 to −5.0)/−2.3 (−2.4 to −2.2) mm Hg; and between active and control arms for drug comparison trials was −1.4 (−1.5 to −1.3)/−0.6 (−0.7 to −0.6) mm Hg. BP reductions were observed across different baseline BP values and ages, and by sex, history of cardiovascular disease and diabetes and prior antihypertensive treatment use. Conclusion These findings suggest that BP-lowering pharmacotherapy is effective in lowering BP, up to 4 years on average, in people with different characteristics. Appropriate treatment strategies are needed to sustain substantive long-term BP reductions

Performance evaluation and ranking of regional primary health care and public health Systems in Iran

Background: The present study has been undertaken with the aim to evaluate performance and ranking of various universities of medical sciences that are responsible for providing public health services and primary health care in Iran. Methods: Four models; Weighted Factor Analysis (WFA), Equal Weighting (EW), Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA), and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) have been applied for evaluating the performance of universities of medical sciences. This study was commenced based on the statistical reports of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MOHME), census data from the Statistical Center of Iran, indicators of Vital Statistics, results of Multiple Indicator of Demographic and Health Survey 2010, and results of the National Survey of Risk Factors of noncommunicable diseases. Results: The average performance scores in WFA, EW, SFA, and DEA methods for the universities were 0.611, 0.663, 0.736 and 0.838, respectively. In all 4 models, the performance scores of universities were different (range from 0.56–1, 0.53–1, 0.73–1 and 0.83–1 in WFA, EW, SFA and DEA models, respectively). Gilan and Rafsanjan universities with the average ranking score of 4.75 and 41 had the highest and lowest rank among universities, respectively. The universities of Gilan, Ardabil and Bojnourd in all four models had the highest performance among the top 15 universities, while the universities of Rafsanjan, Ahvaz, Kerman and Jiroft showed poor performance in all models. Conclusions: The average performance scores have varied based on different measurement methods, so judging the performance of universities based solely on the results of a model can be misleading. In all models, the performance of universities has been different, which indicates the need for planning to balance the performance improvement of universities based on learning from the experiences of well-performing universities