Valutazioni sperimentali di probabilità di occorrenza dei terremoti utilizzando metodologie non parametriche applicate a zonazioni diverse

In 2003 a new building code for Italy has been released. Subsequently a new seismic hazard reference map of Italy (MPS04) have been compiled for definition of seismic zones. In order to define priority area for any short-term policy in loss reduction in Italy, different approach have been followed and compared. One of this approach is based on the clustered feature of the earthquake occurrence for events greater than M5.5, according to the Proportional Hazard Model. The analysis of the distribution of large events is composed by several ingredients. In fact, besides the statistical distribution of events, the catalogue and the zonation play an important role. In this work the same input data used for the MPS04 have been introduced in the model, in order to investigate its sensitivity and the stability of the results and to check the influence into the probability distribution of factors like the catalogues, the zonations and the magnitude-temporal completeness. Then, the predictive ability of this model has been tested and compared to the one of the Poisson distribution, which is used in standard hazard analysis. The results show the same pattern for earthquake occurrence in all the applications, indicating a cluster properties for earthquake occurrence. The cluster characteristic, in terms of time duration and intensity, may change adopting a different catalogue, but it is not significantly influenced by the three zonations adopted in the test

Regression analysis of MCS Intensity and ground motion parameters in Italy and its application in ShakeMap

In Italy, the Mercalli-Cancani-Sieberg, MCS, is the intensity scale in use to describe the level of earthquake ground shaking, and its subsequent effects on communities and on the built environment. This scale differs to some extent from the Mercalli Modified scale in use in other countries and adopted as standard within the USGS-ShakeMap procedure to predict intensities from observed instrumental data. We have assembled a new PGM/MCS-intensity data set from the Italian database of macroseismic information, DBMI04, and the Italian accelerometric database, ITACA. We have determined new regression relations between intensities and PGM parameters (acceleration and velocity). Since both PGM parameters and intensities suffer of consistent uncertainties we have used the orthogonal distance regression technique. The new relations are IMCS = 1.68 ± 0.22 + 2.58 ± 0.14 log P GA, σ = 0.35 and IMCS = 5.11 ± 0.07 + 2.35 ± 0.09 log P GV , σ = 0.26. Tests designed to assess the robustness of the estimated coefficients have shown that single-line parameterizations for the regression are sufficient to model the data within the model uncertainties. The relations have been inserted in the Italian implementation of the USGS-ShakeMap to determine intensity maps from instrumental data and to determine PGM maps from the sole intensity values. Comparisons carried out for earthquakes where both kinds of data are available have shown the general effectiveness of the relations

Bayesian inference on earthquake size distribu- tion: a case study in Italy

This paper is focused on the study of earthquake size statistical distribution by using Bayesian inference. The strategy consists in the definition of an a priori distribution based on instrumental seismicity, and modeled as a power law distribution. By using the observed historical data, the power law is then modified in order to obtain the posterior distribution. The aim of this paper is to define the earthquake size distribution using all the seismic database available (i.e., instrumental and historical catalogs) and a robust statistical technique. We apply this methodology to the Italian seismicity, dividing the territory in source zones as done for the seismic hazard assessment, taken here as a reference model. The results suggest that each area has its own peculiar trend: while the power law is able to capture the mean aspect of the earthquake size distribution, the posterior emphasizes different slopes in different areas. Our results are in general agreement with the ones used in the seismic hazard assessment in Italy. However, there are areas in which a flattening in the curve is shown, meaning a significant departure from the power law behavior and implying that there are some local aspects that a power law distribution is not able to capture

Regression analysis of MCS Intensity and ground motion parameters in Italy and its application in ShakeMap

In Italy, the Mercalli-Cancani-Sieberg, MCS, is the intensity scale in use to describe the level of earthquake ground shaking, and its subsequent effects on communities and on the built environment. This scale differs to some extent from the Mercalli Modified scale in use in other countries and adopted as standard within the USGS-ShakeMap procedure to predict intensities from observed instrumental data. We have assembled a new PGM/MCS-intensity data set from the Italian database of macroseismic information, DBMI04, and the Italian accelerometric database, ITACA. We have determined new regression relations between intensities and PGM parameters (acceleration and velocity). Since both PGM parameters and intensities suffer of consistent uncertainties we have used the orthogonal distance regression technique. The new relations are IMCS = 1.68 ± 0.22 + 2.58 ± 0.14 log P GA, σ = 0.35 and IMCS = 5.11 ± 0.07 + 2.35 ± 0.09 log P GV , σ = 0.26. Tests designed to assess the robustness of the estimated coefficients have shown that single-line parameterizations for the regression are sufficient to model the data within the model uncertainties. The relations have been inserted in the Italian implementation of the USGS-ShakeMap to determine intensity maps from instrumental data and to determine PGM maps from the sole intensity values. Comparisons carried out for earthquakes where both kinds of data are available have shown the general effectiveness of the relations

Innate Immunity: A Balance between Disease and Adaption to Stress

Since first being documented in ancient times, the relation of inflammation with injury and disease has evolved in complexity and causality. Early observations supported a cause (injury) and effect (inflammation) relationship, but the number of pathologies linked to chronic inflammation suggests that inflammation itself acts as a potent promoter of injury and disease. Additionally, results from studies over the last 25 years point to chronic inflammation and innate immune signaling as a critical link between stress (exogenous and endogenous) and adaptation. This brief review looks to highlight the role of the innate immune response in disease pathology, and recent findings indicating the innate immune response to chronic stresses as an influence in driving ad-aptation

ShakeMap implementation in Italy

Since 2005, the Italian Civil Protection (Dipartimento della Protezione Cilvile, DPC) has funded several projects driven toward fast assessment of ground motion shaking in Italy - the final goal being that of organizing the emergency and direct the search and rescue (SAR) teams. To this end, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) has started to determine shakemaps using the USGS-ShakeMap package within 30 minutes from event occurrence and adopting a manually revised location. In this paper we present the INGV implementation of USGS-ShakeMap for earthquakes occurring in Italy and immediately neighboring areas. Emphasis is put on data acquisition, the adopted ground motion predictive relations and the site corrections for the local amplifications of the ground motion. Finally, two examples of shakemaps are shown - the first determined for a recent medium size earthquake, the other for the large Irpinia, 1980, M6.9 event. For both events, the maps are compared to the available macroseismic data

Rapid determination of the shakemaps for the L'Aquila main shock: a critical analysis

This paper describes the progressive generation of the shakemap of the L'Aquila, M(w) 6.3 April 6, 2009, main shock at the Centro Nazionale Terremoti of the INGV. Since 2006 and as part of the national projects funded by the Italian Civil Protection and by the EU SAFER project, the INGV has been determining shakemaps for M >= 3.0 using the USGS-ShakeMap software package and a fully automatic procedure, based on manually revised location and magnitude. Focus of this work is on the importance that the data and the extent of the finite fault have in the determination of faithful ground motion maps. For the L'Aquila main shock, we have found that the data alone are not sufficient to replicate the observed ground motion in parts of the strongly affected areas. In particular, since the station coverage toward the SE where the earthquake rupture propagated is scantier, prompt availability of a rupture fault model would have been important to better describe the level of strong ground motion throughout the affected area. The final maps, obtained using all the data available and a likely estimate of the causative fault, appear to provide a faithful description of the ground motion experienced throughout a large region in and around the epicentral area. A critical review of the various aspects relevant to the generation of the maps indicates that availability of strong motion data in the near source region is critical not only to the generation of the shakemaps but also to more routinely seismological analysis. It follows that data exchange among those institutions acquiring strong motion data is of fundamental importance for rapid characterization of the seismic source and of the area affected by the strong ground motion

ShakeMaps during the Emilia sequence

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Statistical analysis of the Central-Europe Seismicity

The aim of this paper is to characterize the spatio-temporal distribution of Central-Europe seismicity. Specifically, by using a non-parametric statistical approach, the proportional hazard model, leading to an empirical estimation of the hazard function, we provide some constrains on the time behavior of earthquake generation mechanisms. The results indicate that the most conspic- uous characteristics of MW 4.0+ earthquakes is a temporal clustering lasting a couple of years. This suggests that the probability of occurrence increases immediately after a previous event. After a few years, the process becomes almost time independent. Furthermore, we investigate the cluster properties of the seismicity of Central-Europe, by comparing the obtained result with the one of synthetic catalogs generated by the epidemic type aftershock sequences (ETAS) model, which previously have been successfully applied for short term clustering. Our results indicate that the ETAS is not well suited to describe the seismicity as a whole, while it is able to capture the features of the short- term behaviour. Remarkably, similar results have been previously found for Italy using a higher magnitude threshold

Analysis of the spatio-temporal distribution of large earthquakes

The investigation on the spatio-temporal distribution of large earthquakes is still a controversial issue in geophysics and many works in scientific literature have been devoted to this topic. The importance of understanding the statistical distribution of large events is aimed not only to extract information on the physics of the earthquakes occurrence process, but also to make reliable earthquake forecasting. As far as theoretical aspects are concerned, a satisfactory modelling may allow, at least in principle, to test a variety of hypotheses, such as the presence of any regularity in time, and the in uence of di erent tectonic/physical factors that regulate the spatial occurrence of earthquakes. At the same time, a reliable earthquake forecasting has undoubtedly a huge social impact because it may mitigate the seismic risk