Space station attached payload program support

The USRA is providing management and technical support for the peer review of the Space Station Freedom Attached Payload proposals. USRA is arranging for consultants to evaluate proposals, arranging meeting facilities for the reviewers to meet in Huntsville, Alabama and management of the actual review meetings. Assistance in developing an Experiment Requirements Data Base and Engineering/Technical Assessment support for the MSFC Technical Evaluation Team is also being provided. The results of the project will be coordinated into a consistent set of reviews and reports by USRA. The strengths and weaknesses analysis provided by the peer panel reviewers will by used NASA personnel in the selection of experiments for implementation on the Space Station Freedom

Linking Excessive Heat with Daily Heat-Related Mortality over the Coterminous United States

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices, and a new heat stress variable developed as part of this research that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. Outputs are aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health interests. County-level statistics are made available to public health researchers by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER allows decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. Through CDC WONDER, users are able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S

Using Remotely Sensed Data and Watershed and Hydrodynamic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Land Cover Land Use Change on Aquatic Ecosystems in Mobile Bay, AL

Alabama coastal systems have been subjected to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including urban and rural development, shoreline modifications, industrial activities, and dredging of shipping and navigation channels. The impacts on coastal ecosystems are often observed through the use of indicator species. One such indicator species for aquatic ecosystem health is submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed to evaluate the impact of land cover land use (LCLU) change in the two counties surrounding Mobile Bay (Mobile and Baldwin) on SAV stressors and controlling factors (temperature, salinity, and sediment) in the Mobile Bay estuary. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for LCLU scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. Remotely sensed Landsat-derived National Land Cover Data (NLCD) were used in the 1992 and 2001 simulations after having been reclassified to a common classification scheme. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 LCLU scenario based on current trends. The LSPC model simulations provided output on changes in flow, temperature, and sediment for 22 discharge points into the estuary. These results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment on a grid throughout Mobile Bay and adjacent estuaries. The changes in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on SAV habitat suitability. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of temperature, salinity, and sediment due to LCLU driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs. Data products and results are being integrated into NOAA s EcoWatch and Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas online systems for dissemination to coastal resource managers and stakeholders. Objective 1: Develop and utilize Land Use scenarios for Mobile and Baldwin Counties, AL as input to models to predict the affects on water properties (temperature,salinity,)for Mobile Bay through 2030. Objective 2: Evaluate the impact of land use change on seagrasses and SAV in Mobile Bay. Hypothesis: Urbanization will significantly increase surface flows and impact salinity and temperature variables that effect seagrasses and SAVs

Estimating Ground-Level PM(sub 2.5) Concentrations in the Southeastern United States Using MAIAC AOD Retrievals and a Two-Stage Model

Previous studies showed that fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5), particles smaller than 2.5 micrometers in aerodynamic diameter) is associated with various health outcomes. Ground in situ measurements of PM(sub 2.5) concentrations are considered to be the gold standard, but are time-consuming and costly. Satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) products have the potential to supplement the ground monitoring networks to provide spatiotemporally-resolved PM(sub 2.5) exposure estimates. However, the coarse resolutions (e.g., 10 km) of the satellite AOD products used in previous studies make it very difficult to estimate urban-scale PM(sub 2.5) characteristics that are crucial to population-based PM(sub 2.5) health effects research. In this paper, a new aerosol product with 1 km spatial resolution derived by the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm was examined using a two-stage spatial statistical model with meteorological fields (e.g., wind speed) and land use parameters (e.g., forest cover, road length, elevation, and point emissions) as ancillary variables to estimate daily mean PM(sub 2.5) concentrations. The study area is the southeastern U.S., and data for 2003 were collected from various sources. A cross validation approach was implemented for model validation. We obtained R(sup 2) of 0.83, mean prediction error (MPE) of 1.89 micrograms/cu m, and square root of the mean squared prediction errors (RMSPE) of 2.73 micrograms/cu m in model fitting, and R(sup 2) of 0.67, MPE of 2.54 micrograms/cu m, and RMSPE of 3.88 micrograms/cu m in cross validation. Both model fitting and cross validation indicate a good fit between the dependent variable and predictor variables. The results showed that 1 km spatial resolution MAIAC AOD can be used to estimate PM(sub 2.5) concentrations

Correlating Remote Sensing Data with the Abundance of Pupae of the Dengue Virus Mosquito Vector, Aedes aegypti, in Central Mexico

Using a geographic transect in Central Mexico, with an elevation/climate gradient, but uniformity in socio-economic conditions among study sites, this study evaluates the applicability of three widely-used remote sensing (RS) products to link weather conditions with the local abundance of the dengue virus mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti (Ae. aegypti). Field-derived entomological measures included estimates for the percentage of premises with the presence of Ae. aegypti pupae and the abundance of Ae. aegypti pupae per premises. Data on mosquito abundance from field surveys were matched with RS data and analyzed for correlation. Daily daytime and nighttime land surface temperature (LST) values were obtained from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/Aqua cloud-free images within the four weeks preceding the field survey. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)-estimated rainfall accumulation was calculated for the four weeks preceding the field survey. Elevation was estimated through a digital elevation model (DEM). Strong correlations were found between mosquito abundance and RS-derived night LST, elevation and rainfall along the elevation/climate gradient. These findings show that RS data can be used to predict Ae. aegypti abundance, but further studies are needed to define the climatic and socio-economic conditions under which the correlations observed herein can be assumed to apply

The HSCaRS Summer Enrichment Program; Research Opportunities for Minority and Women Undergraduates in Global Change Science

The primary objective of the HSCaRS Summer Enrichment Program (SEP) is to make significant contributions to the NASA Mission to Planet Earth (MTPE) and the Alabama A&M University (AAMU) Center for Hydrology, Soil Climatology and Remote Sensing (HSCaRS) research missions by providing undergraduate student research internships with an emphasis on minority and women students. Additional objectives are to encourage more minority and women students to pursue advanced degrees in Earth system and global change science and to increase the participation of minority institutions in the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Also, the SEP strives to make students in the traditional science disciplines more aware of the opportunities in Earth System Science. In designing the SEP, it was acknowledged that HSCaRS was a new research effort and Center. Consequently, students were not expected to immediately recognize the Center as one would older, more established research laboratories with national reputations, such as Los Alamos, Battelle, National Consortium for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), etc. Yet we still wanted to compete nationally for the best students. Therefore, we designed the program with a competitive financial package that includes a stipend of 400 per week, round-trip transportation from home to the summer research site, and free campus housing and meal plans provided by Alabama A&M University. Students also received a modest living allowance of approximately 25 per week. The internship program was 10 weeks in residence at Alabama A&M University or IGCRE, and gave students the opportunity to select from six general research areas: micro-meteorology, soil data analysis, soil moisture modeling, instrumentation, geographic information systems, and computer science. Student participants also enrolled in an introductory global change science course as part of the summer program (a copy of the course outline is in the appendix). The program included participation in a field program for approximately two weeks. All students were required to participate in the field program as a learning experience, regardless of the relationship of the field program to their majors or particular research project

Projecting Future Urbanization with Prescott College's Spatial Growth Model to Promote Environmental Sustainability and Smart Growth, A Case Study in Atlanta, Georgia

Planning is an integral element of good management and necessary to anticipate events not merely respond to them. Projecting the quantity and spatial distribution of urban growth is essential to effectively plan for the delivery of city services and to evaluate potential environmental impacts. The major drivers of growth in large urban areas are increasing population, employment opportunities, and quality of life attractors such as a favorable climate and recreation opportunities. The spatial distribution of urban growth is dictated by the amount and location of developable land, topography, energy and water resources, transportation network, climate change, and the existing land use configuration. The Atlanta region is growing very rapidly both in population and the consumption of forestland or low-density residential development. Air pollution and water availability are significant ongoing environmental issues. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model (SGM) was used to make growth projections for the metropolitan Atlanta region to 2010,2020 and 2030 and results used for environmental assessment in both business as usual and smart growth scenarios. The Prescott SGM is a tool that uses an ESRI ArcView extension and can be applied at the parcel level or more coarse spatial scales and can accommodate a wide range of user inputs to develop any number of growth rules each of which can be weighted depending on growth assumptions. These projections were used in conjunction with meteorological and air quality models to evaluate future environmental impacts. This presentation will focus on the application of the SGM to the 13-County Atlanta Regional Commission planning jurisdiction as a case study. The SGM will be described, including how rule sets are developed and the decision process for allocation of future development to available land use categories. Data inputs required to effectively run the model will be discussed. Spatial growth projections for ten, twenty, and thirty year planning horizons will be presented and results discussed, including regional climate and air quality impacts

A MODELING SYSTEM TO ASSESS LAND COVER LAND USE CHANGE EFFECTS ON SAV HABITAT IN THE MOBILE BAY ESTUARY

Estuarine ecosystems are largely influenced by watersheds directly connected to them. In the Mobile Bay, Alabama watersheds we examined the effect of land cover and land use (LCLU) changes on discharge rate, water properties, and submerged aquatic vegetation, including freshwater macrophytes and seagrasses, throughout the estuary. LCLU scenarios from 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030 were used to influence watershed and hydrodynamic models and evaluate the impact of LCLU change on shallow aquatic ecosystems. Overall, our modeling results found that LCLU changes increased freshwater flows into Mobile Bay altering temperature, salinity, and total suspended sediments (TSS). Increased urban land uses coupled with decreased agricultural/pasture lands reduced TSS in the water column. However, increased urbanization or agricultural/ pasture land coupled with decreased forest land resulted in higher TSS concentrations. Higher sediment loads were usually strongly correlated with higher TSS levels, except in areas where a large extent of wetlands retained sediment discharged during rainfall events. The modeling results indicated improved water clarity in the shallow aquatic regions of Mississippi Sound and degraded water clarity in the Wolf Bay estuary. This integrated modeling approach will provide new knowledge and tools for coastal resource managers to manage shallow aquatic habitats that provide critical ecosystem services

Evaluating the Impact of Land Use Change on Submerged Aquatic Vegetation Stressors in Mobile Bay

Alabama coastal systems have been subjected to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including urban and rural development, shoreline modifications, industrial activities, and dredging of shipping and navigation channels. The impacts on coastal ecosystems are often observed through the use of indicator species. One such indicator species for aquatic ecosystem health is submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed to evaluate the impact of land use change in Mobile and Baldwin counties on SAV stressors and controlling factors (temperature, salinity, and sediment) in Mobile Bay. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for land use scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. Landsat-derived National Land Cover Data (NLCD) were used in the 1992 and 2001 simulations after having been reclassified to a common classification scheme. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 land use scenario based on current trends. The LSPC model simulations provided output on changes in flow, temperature, and sediment for 22 discharge points into the Bay. Theses results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment on a grid with four vertical profiles throughout Mobile Bay. The changes in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on SAV habitat suitability. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of temperature, salinity, and sediment due to land use driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs

Fine Particulate Matter and Incident Cognitive Impairment in the REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) Cohort

<div><p>Studies of the effect of air pollution on cognitive health are often limited to populations living near cities that have air monitoring stations. Little is known about whether the estimates from such studies can be generalized to the U.S. population, or whether the relationship differs between urban and rural areas. To address these questions, we used a satellite-derived estimate of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentration to determine whether PM_2.5 was associated with incident cognitive impairment in a geographically diverse, biracial US cohort of men and women (n = 20,150). A 1-year mean baseline PM_2.5 concentration was estimated for each participant, and cognitive status at the most recent follow-up was assessed over the telephone using the Six-Item Screener (SIS) in a subsample that was cognitively intact at baseline. Logistic regression was used to determine whether PM_2.5 was related to the odds of incident cognitive impairment. A 10 µg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 concentration was not reliably associated with an increased odds of incident impairment, after adjusting for temperature, season, incident stroke, and length of follow-up [OR (95% CI): 1.26 (0.97, 1.64)]. The odds ratio was attenuated towards 1 after adding demographic covariates, behavioral factors, and known comorbidities of cognitive impairment. A 10 µg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 concentration was slightly associated with incident impairment in urban areas (1.40 [1.06–1.85]), but this relationship was also attenuated after including additional covariates in the model. Evidence is lacking that the effect of PM_2.5 on incident cognitive impairment is robust in a heterogeneous US cohort, even in urban areas.</p></div