Predicting live birth, preterm and low birth weight infant after in-vitro fertilisation: a prospective study of 144018 treatment cycles

Background The extent to which baseline couple characteristics affect the probability of live birth and adverse perinatal outcomes after assisted conception is unknown. Methods and Findings We utilised the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority database to examine the predictors of live birth in all in vitro fertilisation (IVF) cycles undertaken in the UK between 2003 and 2007 (n = 144,018). We examined the potential clinical utility of a validated model that pre-dated the introduction of intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) as compared to a novel model. For those treatment cycles that resulted in a live singleton birth (n = 24,226), we determined the associates of potential risk factors with preterm birth, low birth weight, and macrosomia. The overall rate of at least one live birth was 23.4 per 100 cycles (95% confidence interval [CI] 23.2–23.7). In multivariable models the odds of at least one live birth decreased with increasing maternal age, increasing duration of infertility, a greater number of previously unsuccessful IVF treatments, use of own oocytes, necessity for a second or third treatment cycle, or if it was not unexplained infertility. The association of own versus donor oocyte with reduced odds of live birth strengthened with increasing age of the mother. A previous IVF live birth increased the odds of future success (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.46–1.71) more than that of a previous spontaneous live birth (OR 1.19, 95% CI 0.99–1.24); p-value for difference in estimate <0.001. Use of ICSI increased the odds of live birth, and male causes of infertility were associated with reduced odds of live birth only in couples who had not received ICSI. Prediction of live birth was feasible with moderate discrimination and excellent calibration; calibration was markedly improved in the novel compared to the established model. Preterm birth and low birth weight were increased if oocyte donation was required and ICSI was not used. Risk of macrosomia increased with advancing maternal age and a history of previous live births. Infertility due to cervical problems was associated with increased odds of all three outcomes—preterm birth, low birth weight, and macrosomia. Conclusions Pending external validation, our results show that couple- and treatment-specific factors can be used to provide infertile couples with an accurate assessment of whether they have low or high risk of a successful outcome following IVF

Assessing prediction of diabetes in older adults using different adiposity measures: a 7 year prospective study in 6,923 older men and women

The aim of this study was to examine whether waist circumference (WC) or WHR improve diabetes prediction beyond body mass index in older men and women, and to define optimal cut-off points. In this prospective study, non-diabetic men (n = 3,519) and women (n = 3,404) aged 60-79 years were followed up for 7 years. There were 169 and 128 incident cases of type 2 diabetes in men and women, respectively. BMI, WC and WHR all showed strong associations with incident type 2 diabetes independent of potential confounders. In men, the adjusted relative risks (top vs lowest quartile) were 4.71 (95% CI 2.45-9.03) for BMI, 3.53 (95% CI 1.92-6.48) for WC and 2.76 (95% CI 1.58-4.82) for WHR. For women, the corresponding relative risks were 4.10 (95% CI 2.16-7.79), 12.18 (95% CI 4.83-30.74) and 5.61 (95% CI 2.84-11.09) for BMI, WC and WHR, respectively. Receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis revealed similar associations for BMI and WC in predicting diabetes in men (AUC = 0.726 and 0.713, respectively); WHR was the weakest predictor (AUC = 0.656). In women, WC was a significantly stronger predictor (AUC = 0.780) than either BMI (AUC = 0.733) or WHR (AUC = 0.728; p < 0.01 for both). Inclusion of both WC and BMI did not improve prediction beyond BMI alone in men or WC alone in women. Optimal sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of type 2 diabetes was observed at a WC of 100 cm in men and 92 cm in women. In older men, BMI and WC yielded similar prediction of risk of type 2 diabetes, whereas WC was clearly a superior predictor in older wome

Effects of Feeding Bt MON810 Maize to Pigs for 110 Days on Peripheral Immune Response and Digestive Fate of the cry1Ab Gene and Truncated Bt Toxin

peer-reviewedBackground: The objective of this study was to evaluate potential long-term (110 days) and age-specific effects of feeding genetically modified Bt maize on peripheral immune response in pigs and to determine the digestive fate of the cry1Ab gene and truncated Bt toxin. Methodology/Principal Findings: Forty day old pigs (n = 40) were fed one of the following treatments: 1) isogenic maize-based diet for 110 days (isogenic); 2) Bt maize-based diet (MON810) for 110 days (Bt); 3) Isogenic maize-based diet for 30 days followed by Bt maize-based diet for 80 days (isogenic/Bt); and 4) Bt maize-based diet (MON810) for 30 days followed by isogenic maize-based diet for 80 days (Bt/isogenic). Blood samples were collected during the study for haematological analysis, measurement of cytokine and Cry1Ab-specific antibody production, immune cell phenotyping and cry1Ab gene and truncated Bt toxin detection. Pigs were sacrificed on day 110 and digesta and organ samples were taken for detection of the cry1Ab gene and the truncated Bt toxin. On day 100, lymphocyte counts were higher (P<0.05) in pigs fed Bt/isogenic than pigs fed Bt or isogenic. Erythrocyte counts on day 100 were lower in pigs fed Bt or isogenic/Bt than pigs fed Bt/isogenic (P<0.05). Neither the truncated Bt toxin nor the cry1Ab gene were detected in the organs or blood of pigs fed Bt maize. The cry1Ab gene was detected in stomach digesta and at low frequency in the ileum but not in the distal gastrointestinal tract (GIT), while the Bt toxin fragments were detected at all sites in the GIT. Conclusions/Significance: Perturbations in peripheral immune response were thought not to be age-specific and were not indicative of Th 2 type allergenic or Th 1 type inflammatory responses. There was no evidence of cry1Ab gene or Bt toxin translocation to organs or blood following long-term feeding.The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° 211820 and the Teagasc Walsh Fellowship programme

CD133 expression in chemo-resistant Ewing sarcoma cells

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Some human cancers demonstrate cellular hierarchies in which tumor-initiating cancer stem cells generate progeny cells with reduced tumorigenic potential. This cancer stem cell population is proposed to be a source of therapy-resistant and recurrent disease. Ewing sarcoma family tumors (ESFT) are highly aggressive cancers in which drug-resistant, relapsed disease remains a significant clinical problem. Recently, the cell surface protein CD133 was identified as a putative marker of tumor-initiating cells in ESFT. We evaluated ESFT tumors and cell lines to determine if high levels of CD133 are associated with drug resistance.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Expression of the CD133-encoding <it>PROM1 </it>gene was determined by RT-PCR in ESFT tumors and cell lines. CD133 protein expression was assessed by western blot, FACS and/or immunostaining. Cell lines were FACS-sorted into CD133+ and CD133- fractions and proliferation, colony formation in soft agar, and <it>in vivo </it>tumorigenicity compared. Chemosensitivity was measured using MTS (3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-5-(3-carboxy-methoxyphenyl)-2-(4-sulfophenyl)-2H-tetrazolium) assays.</p> <p>Results</p> <p><it>PROM1 </it>expression was either absent or extremely low in most tumors. However, <it>PROM1 </it>was highly over-expressed in 4 of 48 cases. Two of the 4 patients with <it>PROM1 </it>over-expressing tumors rapidly succumbed to primary drug-resistant disease and two are long-term, event-free survivors. The expression of <it>PROM1 </it>in ESFT cell lines was similarly heterogeneous. The frequency of CD133+ cells ranged from 2-99% and, with one exception, no differences in the chemoresistance or tumorigenicity of CD133+ and CD133- cell fractions were detected. Importantly, however, the STA-ET-8.2 cell line was found to retain a cellular hierarchy in which relatively chemo-resistant, tumorigenic CD133+ cells gave rise to relatively chemo-sensitive, less tumorigenic, CD133- progeny.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Up to 10% of ESFT express high levels of <it>PROM1</it>. In some tumors and cell lines the CD133+ fraction is relatively more drug-resistant, while in others there is no apparent difference between CD133+ and CD133- cells. These studies reveal heterogeneity in <it>PROM1</it>/CD133 expression in ESFT tumors and cell lines and confirm that high levels of <it>PROM1 </it>expression are, in at least some cases, associated with chemo-resistant disease. Further studies are required to elucidate the contribution of <it>PROM1/</it>CD133 expressing cells to therapeutic resistance in a large, prospective cohort of primary ESFT.</p

Risk factors for incident falls in older men and women:The English longitudinal study of ageing

Background: falls are a major cause of disability and death in older people, particularly women. Cross-sectional surveys suggest that some risk factors associated with a history of falls may be sex-specific, but whether risk factors for incident falls differ between the sexes is unclear. We investigated whether risk factors for incident falls differ between men and women.Methods: participants were 3298 people aged ≥60 who took part in the Waves 4-6 surveys of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. At Wave 4, they provided information about sociodemographic, lifestyle, behavioural and medical factors and had their physical and cognitive function assessed. Data on incident falls during the four-year follow-up period was collected from them at Waves 5 and 6. Poisson regression with robust variance estimation was used to derive relative risks (RR) for the association between baseline characteristics and incident falls.Results: in multivariable-adjusted models that also controlled for history of falls, older age was the only factor associated with increased risk of incident falls in both sexes. Some factors were only predictive of falls in one sex, namely more depressive symptoms (RR (95% CI) 1.03 (1.01,1.06)), incontinence (1.12 (1.00,1.24)) and never having married in women (1.26 (1.03,1.53)), and greater comorbidity (1.04 (1.00,1.08)), higher levels of pain (1.10 (1.04,1.17) and poorer balance, as indicated by inability to attempt a full-tandem stand, (1.23 (1.04,1.47)) in men. Of these, only the relationships between pain, balance and comorbidity and falls risk differed significantly by sex.Conclusions: there were some differences between the sexes in risk factors for incident falls. Our observation that associations between pain, balance and comorbidity and incident falls risk varied by sex needs further investigation in other cohorts. <br/

Modeling Initiation of Ewing Sarcoma in Human Neural Crest Cells

Ewing sarcoma family tumors (ESFT) are aggressive bone and soft tissue tumors that express EWS-ETS fusion genes as driver mutations. Although the histogenesis of ESFT is controversial, mesenchymal (MSC) and/or neural crest (NCSC) stem cells have been implicated as cells of origin. For the current study we evaluated the consequences of EWS-FLI1 expression in human embryonic stem cell-derived NCSC (hNCSC). Ectopic expression of EWS-FLI1 in undifferentiated hNCSC and their neuro-mesenchymal stem cell (hNC-MSC) progeny was readily tolerated and led to altered expression of both well established as well as novel EWS-FLI1 target genes. Importantly, whole genome expression profiling studies revealed that the molecular signature of established ESFT is more similar to hNCSC than any other normal tissue, including MSC, indicating that maintenance or reactivation of the NCSC program is a feature of ESFT pathogenesis. Consistent with this hypothesis, EWS-FLI1 induced hNCSC genes as well as the polycomb proteins BMI-1 and EZH2 in hNC-MSC. In addition, up-regulation of BMI-1 was associated with avoidance of cellular senescence and reversible silencing of p16. Together these studies confirm that, unlike terminally differentiated cells but consistent with bone marrow-derived MSC, NCSC tolerate expression of EWS-FLI1 and ectopic expression of the oncogene initiates transition to an ESFT-like state. In addition, to our knowledge this is the first demonstration that EWS-FLI1-mediated induction of BMI-1 and epigenetic silencing of p16 might be critical early initiating events in ESFT tumorigenesis

Modifiable risk factors predicting major depressive disorder at four year follow-up: a decision tree approach

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Relative to physical health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, little is known about risk factors that predict the prevalence of depression. The present study investigates the expected effects of a reduction of these risks over time, using the decision tree method favoured in assessing cardiovascular disease risk.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The PATH through Life cohort was used for the study, comprising 2,105 20-24 year olds, 2,323 40-44 year olds and 2,177 60-64 year olds sampled from the community in the Canberra region, Australia. A decision tree methodology was used to predict the presence of major depressive disorder after four years of follow-up. The decision tree was compared with a logistic regression analysis using ROC curves.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The decision tree was found to distinguish and delineate a wide range of risk profiles. Previous depressive symptoms were most highly predictive of depression after four years, however, modifiable risk factors such as substance use and employment status played significant roles in assessing the risk of depression. The decision tree was found to have better sensitivity and specificity than a logistic regression using identical predictors.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The decision tree method was useful in assessing the risk of major depressive disorder over four years. Application of the model to the development of a predictive tool for tailored interventions is discussed.</p

External validation and calibration of IVFpredict:A national prospective cohort study of 130,960 in vitro fertilisation Cycles

© 2015 Smith et al. Background Accurately predicting the probability of a live birth after in vitro fertilisation (IVF) is important for patients, healthcare providers and policy makers. Two prediction models (Templeton and IVFpredict) have been previously developed from UK data and are widely used internationally. The more recent of these, IVFpredict, was shown to have greater predictive power in the development dataset. The aim of this study was external validation of the two models and comparison of their predictive ability. Methods and Findings 130,960 IVF cycles undertaken in the UK in 2008-2010 were used to validate and compare the Templeton and IVFpredict models. Discriminatory power was calculated using the area under the receiver-operator curve and calibration assessed using a calibration plot and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. The scaled modified Brier score, with measures of reliability and resolution, were calculated to assess overall accuracy. Both models were compared after updating for current live birth rates to ensure that the average observed and predicted live birth rates were equal. The discriminative power of both methods was comparable: the area under the receiver-operator curve was 0.628 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.625-0.631) for IVFpredict and 0.616 (95% CI: 0.613-0.620) for the Templeton model. IVFpredict had markedly better calibration and higher diagnostic accuracy, with calibration plot intercept of 0.040 (95% CI: 0.017-0.063) and slope of 0.932 (95% CI: 0.839 - 1.025) compared with 0.080 (95% CI: 0.044-0.117) and 1.419 (95% CI: 1.149-1.690) for the Templeton model. Both models underestimated the live birth rate, but this was particularly marked in the Templeton model. Updating the models to reflect improvements in live birth rates since the models were developed enhanced their performance, but IVFpredict remained superior. Conclusion External validation in a large population cohort confirms IVFpredict has superior discrimination and calibration for informing patients, clinicians and healthcare policy makers of the probability of live birth following IVF

A multidisciplinary, multifactorial intervention program reduces postoperative falls and injuries after femoral neck fracture

INTRODUCTION: This study evaluates whether a postoperative multidisciplinary, intervention program, including systematic assessment and treatment of fall risk factors, active prevention, detection, and treatment of postoperative complications, could reduce inpatient falls and fall-related injuries after a femoral neck fracture. METHODS: A randomized, controlled trial at the orthopedic and geriatric departments at Umeå University Hospital, Sweden, included 199 patients with femoral neck fracture, aged  ≥70 years. RESULTS: Twelve patients fell 18 times in the intervention group compared with 26 patients suffering 60 falls in the control group. Only one patient with dementia fell in the intervention group compared with 11 in the control group. The crude postoperative fall incidence rate was 6.29/1,000 days in the intervention group vs 16.28/1,000 days in the control group. The incidence rate ratio was 0.38 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.20 – 0.76, p = 0.006] for the total sample and 0.07 (95% CI: 0.01–0.57, p=0.013) among patients with dementia. There were no new fractures in the intervention group but four in the control group. CONCLUSION: A team applying comprehensive geriatric assessment and rehabilitation, including prevention, detection, and treatment of fall risk factors, can successfully prevent inpatient falls and injuries, even in patients with dementia