The Easy Case for Derivatives Use: Advocating a Corporate Fiduciary Duty to Use Derivatives

This Article hypothesizes that directors have a duty to shareholders to investigate and evaluate how derivatives could minimize risk to their organization. Even more, corporations have a duty to use derivatives if overall portfolio risk will thereby be reduced. Part I of this Article defines and describes the major types of derivatives and explains how and why they are used. Part II investigates the risks of derivatives, comparing these risks to other investment instruments. Part III introduces a new conceptualization of derivatives through exploration of three issues surrounding their use: (1) brokers\u27 liabilities to investors when financial losses result; (2) corporate liability to shareholders for losses; and (3) the possibility that in certain contexts, a corporation has a duty to its shareholders to use derivatives to manage business risk. Part IV proposes a risk management strategy designed to minimize the inherent risks of derivatives and to maximize their advantages in managing ordinary business risk. Part V concludes with a look to the future of derivatives. Derivatives, Duty, Risk Minimizatio

Variability in methane emissions from West Siberia's shallow boreal lakes on a regional scale and its environmental controls

Small lakes represent an important source of atmospheric CH4 from northern wetlands. However, spatiotemporal variations in flux magnitudes and the lack of knowledge about their main environmental controls contribute large uncertainty into the global CH4 budget. In this study, we measured methane fluxes from small lakes using chambers and bubble traps. Field investigations were carried out in July–August 2014 within the West Siberian middle and southern taiga zones. The average and median of measured methane chamber fluxes were 0.32 and 0.30 mgCH4 m−2 h−1 for middle taiga lakes and 8.6 and 4.1 mgCH4 m−2 h−1 for southern taiga lakes, respectively. Pronounced flux variability was found during measurements on individual lakes, between individual lakes and between zones. To analyze these differences and the influences of environmental controls, we developed a new dynamic process-based model. It shows good performance with emission rates from the southern taiga lakes and poor performance for individual lakes in the middle taiga region. The model shows that, in addition to wellknown controls such as temperature, pH and lake depth, there are significant variations in the maximal methane production potential between these climatic zones. In addition, the model shows that variations in gas-filled pore space in lake sediments are capable of controlling the total methane emissions from individual lakes. The CH4 emissions exhibited distinct zonal differences not only in absolute values but also in their probability density functions: the middle taiga lake fluxes were best described by a lognormal distribution while the southern taiga lakes followed a power-law distribution. The latter suggests applicability of self-organized criticality theory for methane emissions from the southern taiga zone, which could help to explain the strong variability within individual lakes

Post-processed data and graphical tools for a CONUS-wide eddy flux evapotranspiration dataset

Large sample datasets of in situ evapotranspiration (ET) measurements with well documented data provenance and quality assurance are critical for water management and many fields of earth science research. We present a post-processed ET oriented dataset at daily and monthly timesteps, from 161 stations, including 148 eddy covariance flux towers, that were chosen based on their data quality from nearly 350 stations across the contiguous United States. In addition to ET, the data includes energy and heat fluxes, meteorological measurements, and reference ET downloaded from gridMET for each flux station. Data processing techniques were conducted in a reproducible manner using open-source software. Most data initially came from the public AmeriFlux network, however, several different networks (e.g., the USDA-Agricultural Research Service) and university partners provided data that was not yet public. Initial half-hourly energy balance data were gap-filled and aggregated to daily frequency, and turbulent fluxes were corrected for energy balance closure error using the FLUXNET2015/ONEFlux energy balance ratio approach. Metadata, diagnostics of energy balance, and interactive graphs of time series data are included for each station. Although the dataset was developed primarily to benchmark satellite-based remote sensing ET models of the OpenET initiative, there are many other potential uses, such as validation for a range of regional hydrologic and atmospheric models

Post-processed data and graphical tools for a CONUS-wide eddy flux evapotranspiration dataset

Large sample datasets of in situ evapotranspiration (ET) measurements with well documented data provenance and quality assurance are critical for water management and many fields of earth science research. We present a post-processed ET oriented dataset at daily and monthly timesteps, from 161 stations, including 148 eddy covariance flux towers, that were chosen based on their data quality from nearly 350 stations across the contiguous United States. In addition to ET, the data includes energy and heat fluxes, meteorological measurements, and reference ET downloaded from grid- MET for each flux station. Data processing techniques were conducted in a reproducible manner using open-source soft- ware. Most data initially came from the public AmeriFlux network, however, several different networks (e.g., the USDA- Agricultural Research Service) and university partners pro- vided data that was not yet public. Initial half-hourly energy balance data were gap-filled and aggregated to daily frequency, and turbulent fluxes were corrected for energy balance closure error using the FLUXNET2015/ONEFlux energy balance ratio approach. Metadata, diagnostics of energy balance, and interactive graphs of time series data are included for each station. Although the dataset was developed primarily to benchmark satellite-based remote sensing ET models of the OpenET initiative, there are many other potential uses, such as validation for a range of regional hydrologic and atmospheric models

Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be Conservative

This article proposes a unifying theory, or the Golden Rule, or forecasting. The Golden Rule of Forecasting is to be conservative. A conservative forecast is consistent with cumulative knowledge about the present and the past. To be conservative, forecasters must seek out and use all knowledge relevant to the problem, including knowledge of methods validated for the situation. Twenty-eight guidelines are logically deduced from the Golden Rule. A review of evidence identified 105 papers with experimental comparisons; 102 support the guidelines. Ignoring a single guideline increased forecast error by more than two-fifths on average. Ignoring the Golden Rule is likely to harm accuracy most when the situation is uncertain and complex, and when bias is likely. Non-experts who use the Golden Rule can identify dubious forecasts quickly and inexpensively. To date, ignorance of research findings, bias, sophisticated statistical procedures, and the proliferation of big data, have led forecasters to violate the Golden Rule. As a result, despite major advances in evidence-based forecasting methods, forecasting practice in many fields has failed to improve over the past half-century

FLUXNET-CH₄ synthesis activity: objectives, observations, and future directions

We describe a new coordination activity and initial results for a global synthesis of eddy covariance CH4 flux measurements

Substantial hysteresis in emergent temperature sensitivity of global wetland CH₄ emissions

Wetland methane (CH4) emissions (FCH4 ) are important in global carbon budgets and climate change assessments. Currently, FCH4 projections rely on prescribed static temperature sensitivity that varies among biogeochemical models. Meta-analyses have proposed a consistent FCH4 temperature dependence across spatial scales for use in models; however, sitelevel studies demonstrate that FCH4 are often controlled by factors beyond temperature. Here, we evaluate the relationship between FCH4 and temperature using observations from the FLUXNET-CH4 database. Measurements collected across the globe show substantial seasonal hysteresis between FCH4 and temperature, suggesting larger FCH4 sensitivity to temperature later in the frost-free season (about 77% of site-years). Results derived from a machine-learning model and several regression models highlight the importance of representing the large spatial and temporal variability within site-years and ecosystem types. Mechanistic advancements in biogeochemical model parameterization and detailed measurements in factors modulating CH4 production are thus needed to improve global CH4 budget assessments.s

Substantial hysteresis in emergent temperature sensitivity of global wetland CH4_{4} emissions

Wetland methane (CH$_{4}$) emissions (F$_{CH_{4}}$) are important in global carbon budgets and climate change assessments. Currently, F$_{CH_{4}}$ projections rely on prescribed static temperature sensitivity that varies among biogeochemical models. Meta-analyses have proposed a consistent F$_{CH_{4}}$ temperature dependence across spatial scales for use in models; however, site-level studies demonstrate that F$_{CH_{4}}$ are often controlled by factors beyond temperature. Here, we evaluate the relationship between F$_{CH_{4}}$ and temperature using observations from the FLUXNET-CH$_{4}$ database. Measurements collected across the globe show substantial seasonal hysteresis between F$_{CH_{4}}$ and temperature, suggesting larger F$_{CH_{4}}$ sensitivity to temperature later in the frost-free season (about 77% of site-years). Results derived from a machine-learning model and several regression models highlight the importance of representing the large spatial and temporal variability within site-years and ecosystem types. Mechanistic advancements in biogeochemical model parameterization and detailed measurements in factors modulating CH$_{4}$ production are thus needed to improve global CH$_{4}$ budget assessments