Modelling Long Term Disability following Injury: Comparison of Three Approaches for Handling Multiple Injuries

BACKGROUND: Injury is a leading cause of the global burden of disease (GBD). Estimates of non-fatal injury burden have been limited by a paucity of empirical outcomes data. This study aimed to (i) establish the 12-month disability associated with each GBD 2010 injury health state, and (ii) compare approaches to modelling the impact of multiple injury health states on disability as measured by the Glasgow Outcome Scale - Extended (GOS-E). METHODS: 12-month functional outcomes for 11,337 survivors to hospital discharge were drawn from the Victorian State Trauma Registry and the Victorian Orthopaedic Trauma Outcomes Registry. ICD-10 diagnosis codes were mapped to the GBD 2010 injury health states. Cases with a GOS-E score >6 were defined as "recovered." A split dataset approach was used. Cases were randomly assigned to development or test datasets. Probability of recovery for each health state was calculated using the development dataset. Three logistic regression models were evaluated: a) additive, multivariable; b) "worst injury;" and c) multiplicative. Models were adjusted for age and comorbidity and investigated for discrimination and calibration. FINDINGS: A single injury health state was recorded for 46% of cases (1-16 health states per case). The additive (C-statistic 0.70, 95% CI: 0.69, 0.71) and "worst injury" (C-statistic 0.70; 95% CI: 0.68, 0.71) models demonstrated higher discrimination than the multiplicative (C-statistic 0.68; 95% CI: 0.67, 0.70) model. The additive and "worst injury" models demonstrated acceptable calibration. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of patients survived with persisting disability at 12-months, highlighting the importance of improving estimates of non-fatal injury burden. Additive and "worst" injury models performed similarly. GBD 2010 injury states were moderately predictive of recovery 1-year post-injury. Further evaluation using additional measures of health status and functioning and comparison with the GBD 2010 disability weights will be needed to optimise injury states for future GBD studies

Long-term health status and trajectories of seriously injured patients: A population-based longitudinal study

Improved understanding of the quality of survival of patients is crucial in evaluating trauma care, understanding recovery patterns and timeframes, and informing healthcare, social, and disability service provision. We aimed to describe the longer-term health status of seriously injured patients, identify predictors of outcome, and establish recovery trajectories by population characteristics.A population-based, prospective cohort study using the Victorian State Trauma Registry (VSTR) was undertaken. We followed up 2,757 adult patients, injured between July 2011 and June 2012, through deaths registry linkage and telephone interview at 6-, 12-, 24-, and 36-months postinjury. The 3-level EuroQol 5 dimensions questionnaire (EQ-5D-3L) was collected, and mixed-effects regression modelling was used to identify predictors of outcome, and recovery trajectories, for the EQ-5D-3L items and summary score. Mean (SD) age of participants was 50.8 (21.6) years, and 72% were male. Twelve percent (n = 333) died during their hospital stay, 8.1% (n = 222) of patients died postdischarge, and 155 (7.0%) were known to have survived to 36-months postinjury but were lost to follow-up at all time points. The prevalence of reporting problems at 36-months postinjury was 37% for mobility, 21% for self-care, 47% for usual activities, 50% for pain/discomfort, and 41% for anxiety/depression. Continued improvement to 36-months postinjury was only present for the usual activities item; the adjusted relative risk (ARR) of reporting problems decreased from 6 to 12 (ARR 0.87, 95% CI: 0.83-0.90), 12 to 24 (ARR 0.94, 95% CI: 0.90-0.98), and 24 to 36 months (ARR 0.95, 95% CI: 0.95-0.99). The risk of reporting problems with pain or discomfort increased from 24- to 36-months postinjury (ARR 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.12). While loss to follow-up was low, there was responder bias with patients injured in intentional events, younger, and less seriously injured patients less likely to participate; therefore, these patient subgroups were underrepresented in the study findings.The prevalence of ongoing problems at 3-years postinjury is high, confirming that serious injury is frequently a chronic disorder. These findings have implications for trauma system design. Investment in interventions to reduce the longer-term impact of injuries is needed, and greater investment in primary prevention is needed

Comparison of Mortality Following Hospitalisation for Isolated Head Injury in England and Wales, and Victoria, Australia

BACKGROUND: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) remains a leading cause of death and disability. The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines recommend transfer of severe TBI cases to neurosurgical centres, irrespective of the need for neurosurgery. This observational study investigated the risk-adjusted mortality of isolated TBI admissions in England/Wales, and Victoria, Australia, and the impact of neurosurgical centre management on outcomes. METHODS: Isolated TBI admissions (>15 years, July 2005-June 2006) were extracted from the hospital discharge datasets for both jurisdictions. Severe isolated TBI (AIS severity >3) admissions were provided by the Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) and Victorian State Trauma Registry (VSTR) for England/Wales, and Victoria, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare risk-adjusted mortality between jurisdictions. FINDINGS: Mortality was 12% (749/6256) in England/Wales and 9% (91/1048) in Victoria for isolated TBI admissions. Adjusted odds of death in England/Wales were higher compared to Victoria overall (OR 2.0, 95% CI: 1.6, 2.5), and for cases <65 years (OR 2.36, 95% CI: 1.51, 3.69). For severe TBI, mortality was 23% (133/575) for TARN and 20% (68/346) for VSTR, with 72% of TARN and 86% of VSTR cases managed at a neurosurgical centre. The adjusted mortality odds for severe TBI cases in TARN were higher compared to the VSTR (OR 1.45, 95% CI: 0.96, 2.19), but particularly for cases <65 years (OR 2.04, 95% CI: 1.07, 3.90). Neurosurgical centre management modified the effect overall (OR 1.12, 95% CI: 0.73, 1.74) and for cases <65 years (OR 1.53, 95% CI: 0.77, 3.03). CONCLUSION: The risk-adjusted odds of mortality for all isolated TBI admissions, and severe TBI cases, were higher in England/Wales when compared to Victoria. The lower percentage of cases managed at neurosurgical centres in England and Wales was an explanatory factor, supporting the changes made to the NICE guidelines

Predicting fracture outcomes from clinical registry data using artificial intelligence supplemented models for evidence-informed treatment (PRAISE) study protocol

BackgroundDistal radius (wrist) fractures are the second most common fracture admitted to hospital. The anatomical pattern of these types of injuries is diverse, with variation in clinical management, guidelines for management remain inconclusive, and the uptake of findings from clinical trials into routine practice limited. Robust predictive modelling, which considers both the characteristics of the fracture and patient, provides the best opportunity to reduce variation in care and improve patient outcomes. This type of data is housed in unstructured data sources with no particular format or schema. The “Predicting fracture outcomes from clinical Registry data using Artificial Intelligence (AI) Supplemented models for Evidence-informed treatment (PRAISE)” study aims to use AI methods on unstructured data to describe the fracture characteristics and test if using this information improves identification of key fracture characteristics and prediction of patient-reported outcome measures and clinical outcomes following wrist fractures compared to prediction models based on standard registry data.Methods and designAdult (16+ years) patients presenting to the emergency department, treated in a short stay unit, or admitted to hospital for >24h for management of a wrist fracture in four Victorian hospitals will be included in this study. The study will use routine registry data from the Victorian Orthopaedic Trauma Outcomes Registry (VOTOR), and electronic medical record (EMR) information (e.g. X-rays, surgical reports, radiology reports, images). A multimodal deep learning fracture reasoning system (DLFRS) will be developed that reasons on EMR information. Machine learning prediction models will test the performance with/without output from the DLFRS.DiscussionThe PRAISE study will establish the use of AI techniques to provide enhanced information about fracture characteristics in people with wrist fractures. Prediction models using AI derived characteristics are expected to provide better prediction of clinical and patient-reported outcomes following distal radius fracture

Prenatal diagnosis of Caudal Regression Syndrome : a case report

BACKGROUND: Caudal regression is a rare syndrome which has a spectrum of congenital malformations ranging from simple anal atresia to absence of sacral, lumbar and possibly lower thoracic vertebrae, to the most severe form which is known as sirenomelia. Maternal diabetes, genetic predisposition and vascular hypoperfusion have been suggested as possible causative factors. CASE PRESENTATION: We report a case of caudal regression syndrome diagnosed in utero at 22 weeks' of gestation. Prenatal ultrasound examination revealed a sudden interruption of the spine and "frog-like" position of lower limbs. Termination of pregnancy and autopsy findings confirmed the diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Prenatal ultrasonographic diagnosis of caudal regression syndrome is possible at 22 weeks' of gestation by ultrasound examination

Policy Entrepreneurship and Multilevel Governance: A Comparative Study of European Cross-Border Regions

This article was publsihed in the journal, Environment and Planning C [© Pion]. The definitive version is available at: http://www.envplan.com/C.htmlThis article addresses the recent proliferation of Cross-Border Regions, or Euroregions, in Europe. It argues that EU multi-level governance patterns generate opportunities for entrepreneurial policy organisations to attract policy tasks and resources. This is conceptualised as policy entrepreneurship and applied to a comparative case study analysis of three Euroregions: EUREGIO (Germany – Netherlands), Viadrina (Poland – Germany) and Tyrol (Austria – Italy). The analysis focuses on the ability of these initiatives to establish themselves as autonomous organisations. It finds considerable variation across the cases in this respect. Following on from this, the paper shows how different administrative and institutional environments in different EU member states affect the ability of Euroregions to engage in policy entrepreneurship. It concludes that is it premature to perceive Euroregions as new types of regional territorial entities; rather, they are part of the policy innovation scenario enabled by EU multi-level governance

Differences in the epidemiology of out-of-hospital and in-hospital trauma deaths

BACKGROUND: Trauma is a leading cause of mortality. Holistic views of trauma systems consider injury as a public health problem that requires efforts in primary, secondary and tertiary prevention. However, the performance of trauma systems is commonly judged on the in-hospital mortality rate. Such a focus misses opportunities to consider all deaths within a population, to understand differences in in-hospital and out-of-hospital trauma deaths and to inform population-level injury prevention efforts. The aim of this study was to provide an epidemiological overview of out-of-hospital and in-hospital trauma deaths in a geographically-defined area over a 10-year period. METHODS: We performed a population-based review of out-of-hospital and in-hospital trauma deaths over the period of 01 July 2006 to 30 June 2016 in Victoria, Australia, using data from the National Coronial Information System and the Victorian State Trauma Registry. Temporal trends in population-based incidence rates were evaluated. RESULTS: Over the study period, there were 11,246 trauma deaths, of which 71% were out-of-hospital deaths. Out-of-hospital trauma deaths commonly resulted from intentional self-harm events (50%) and transport events (35%), while in-hospital trauma deaths commonly resulted from low falls (≤1 metre) (50%). The incidence of overall trauma deaths did not change over the study period (incidence rate ratio 0.998; 95%CI: 0.991, 1.004; P = 0.56). CONCLUSIONS: Out-of-hospital deaths accounted for most trauma deaths. Given the notable differences between out-of-hospital and in-hospital trauma deaths, monitoring of all trauma deaths is necessary to inform injury prevention activities and to reduce trauma mortality. The absence of a change in the incidence of both out-of-hospital and in-hospital trauma deaths demonstrates the need for enhanced activities across all aspects of injury prevention

Severe hypoglycemia during pregnancy: Its frequency and predisposing factors in diabetic women

Severe hypoglycemic episodes, as defined as altered consciousness to the extent that self treatment is impossible, were sought prospectively in pregnant diabetic women. One or more episodes were found in none of 21 gestational onset, insulin-requiring women during their 28 pregnancies but were present in 19 (33%) of the 57 already insulin dependent (Type 1) women during 26 (36%) of their 72 pregnancies. The most common predisposing factors included strict glucose control, anorexia, early morning hours (1200-0900), lack of an adrenergic response and time shortly before the next anticipated meal.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/26085/1/0000161.pd

Moving beyond physical education subject knowledge to develop knowledgeable teachers of the subject

All knowledge is socially constructed, including physical education teachers’ knowledge of their subject. It is acquired from other people either formally and deliberately (e.g. by being taught) or informally and casually (e.g. by interacting with physical education teachers or playing in a sports team). The social aspects of learning appear to be particularly strong in physical education. This has implications for the development of knowledge for teaching, with trainee teachers focusing on the development of subject, and particularly content, knowledge. Focusing on subject knowledge reinforces a traditional view of physical education as it is, not as it might be to meet the needs of young people today. It is argued that attention needs to be given not only to the knowledge, skills and competencies that trainee teachers ought to develop but also to the social aspects of their learning and development and the context in which they learn. Attention also needs to be given to how the ability to think critically can be developed so that trainee teachers can become reflective practitioners able to challenge and, where appropriate, change the teaching of the subject. Only by doing this can the particularly strong socialisation which shapes the values and beliefs of physical education teachers begin to be challenged. However, as the process of developing knowledgeable teachers is ongoing it is also necessary to look beyond teacher training to continuing professional development