SPACE-TIME ESTIMATION AND PREDICTION UNDER FIXED-DOMAIN ASYMPTOTICS WITH COMPACTLY SUPPORTED COVARIANCE FUNCTIONS

We study the estimation and prediction of Gaussian processes with spacetime covariance models belonging to the dynamical generalized Wendland (DGW) family, under fixed-domain asymptotics. Such a class is nonseparable, has dynamical compact supports, and parameterizes differentiability at the origin similarly to the space-time Matern class.Our results are presented in two parts. First, we establish the strong consistency and asymptotic normality for the maximum likelihood estimator of the microergodic parameter associated with the DGW covariance model, under fixed-domain asymptotics. The second part focuses on optimal kriging prediction under the DGW model and an asymptotically correct estimation of the mean squared error using a misspecified model. Our theoretical results are, in turn, based on the equivalence of Gaussian measures under some given families of space-time covariance functions, where both space or time are compact. The technical results are provided in the online Supplementary material

Unifying compactly supported and Matern covariance functions in spatial statistics

The Matern family of covariance functions has played a central role in spatial statistics for decades, being a flexible parametric class with one parameter determining the smoothness of the paths of the underlying spatial field. This paper proposes a family of spatial covariance functions, which stems from a reparameterization of the generalized Wendland family. As for the Matern case, the proposed family allows for a continuous parameterization of the smoothness of the underlying Gaussian random field, being additionally compactly supported.More importantly, we show that the proposed covariance family generalizes the Matern model which is attained as a special limit case. This implies that the (reparametrized) Generalized Wendland model is more flexible than the Matern model with an extra-parameter that allows for switching from compactly to globally supported covariance functions.Our numerical experiments elucidate the speed of convergence of the proposed model to the Matern model. We also inspect the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood method when estimating the parameters of the proposed covariance models under both increasing and fixed domain asymptotics. The effectiveness of our proposal is illustrated by analyzing a georeferenced dataset of mean temperatures over a region of French, and performing a re-analysis of a large spatial point referenced dataset of yearly total precipitation anomalies. (C) 2022 Published by Elsevier Inc

Stein hypothesis and screening effect for covariances with compact support

In spatial statistics, the screening effect historically refers to the situation when the observations located far from the predictand receive a small (ideally, zero) kriging weight. Several factors play a crucial role in this phenomenon: among them, the spatial design, the dimension of the spatial domain where the observations are defined, the mean-square properties of the underlying random field and its covariance function or, equivalently, its spectral density. The tour de force by Michael L. Stein provides a formal definition of the screening effect and puts emphasis on the Matérn covariance function, advocated as a good covariance function to yield such an effect. Yet, it is often recommended not to use covariance functions with a compact support. This paper shows that some classes of covariance functions being compactly supported allow for a screening effect according to Stein’s definition, in both regular and irregular settings of the spatial design. Further, numerical experiments suggest that the screening effect under a class of compactly supported covariance functions is even stronger than the screening effect under a Matérn model

Reinstatement of Cortical Outcome Representations during Higher-Order Learning

Naturalistic learning scenarios are characterized by infrequent experience of external feedback to guide behavior. Higher-order learning mechanisms like second-order conditioning (SOC) may allow stimuli that were never experienced together with reinforcement to acquire motivational value. Despite its explanatory potential for real-world learning, surprisingly little is known about the neural mechanism underlying such associative transfer of value in SOC. Here, we used multivariate cross-session, cross-modality searchlight classification on functional magnetic resonance imaging data obtained from humans during SOC. We show that visual first-order conditioned stimuli (CS) reinstate cortical patterns representing previously paired gustatory outcomes in the lateral orbitofrontal cortex (OFC). During SOC, this OFC region showed increased functional covariation with amygdala, where neural pattern similarity between second-order CS and outcomes increased from early to late stages of SOC. Our data suggest a mechanism by which motivational value is conferred to stimuli that were never paired with reinforcement

Estimation and prediction using generalized wendland covariance functions under fixed domain asymptotics

We study estimation and prediction of Gaussian random fields with covariance models belonging to the generalized Wendland (GW) class, under fixed domain asymptotics. As for the Matérn case, this class allows for a continuous parameterization of smoothness of the underlying Gaussian random field, being additionally compactly supported. The paper is divided into three parts: first, we characterize the equivalence of two Gaussian measures with GW covariance function, and we provide sufficient conditions for the equivalence of two Gaussian measures with Matérn and GW covariance functions. In the second part, we establish strong consistency and asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the microergodic parameter associated to GW covariance model, under fixed domain asymptotics. The third part elucidates the consequences of our results in terms of (misspecified) best linear unbiased predictor, under fixed domain asymptotics. Our findings are illustrated through a simulation study: the former compares the finite sample behavior of the maximum likelihood estimation of the microergodic parameter with the given asymptotic distribution. The latter compares the finite-sample behavior of the prediction and its associated mean square error when using two equivalent Gaussian measures with Matérn and GW covariance models, using covariance tapering as benchmark

Asymptotically equivalent prediction in multivariate geostatistics

Cokriging is the common method of spatial interpolation (best linear unbiased prediction) in multivariate geo-statistics. While best linear prediction has been well understood in univariate spatial statistics, the literature for the multivariate case has been elusive so far. The new challenges provided by modern spatial datasets, being typ-ically multivariate, call for a deeper study of cokriging. In particular, we deal with the problem of misspecified cokriging prediction within the framework of fixed domain asymptotics. Specifically, we provide conditions for equivalence of measures associated with multivariate Gaussian random fields, with index set in a compact set of a d-dimensional Euclidean space. Such conditions have been elusive for over about 50 years of spatial statistics. We then focus on the multivariate Matern and Generalized Wendland classes of matrix valued covariance functions, that have been very popular for having parameters that are crucial to spatial interpolation, and that control the mean square differentiability of the associated Gaussian process. We provide sufficient conditions, for equivalence of Gaussian measures, relying on the covariance parameters of these two classes. This enables to identify the parameters that are crucial to asymptotically equivalent interpolation in multivariate geostatistics. Our findings are then illustrated through simulation studies