Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Trends in Data Locality Abstractions for HPC Systems

The cost of data movement has always been an important concern in high performance computing (HPC) systems. It has now become the dominant factor in terms of both energy consumption and performance. Support for expression of data locality has been explored in the past, but those efforts have had only modest success in being adopted in HPC applications for various reasons. them However, with the increasing complexity of the memory hierarchy and higher parallelism in emerging HPC systems, locality management has acquired a new urgency. Developers can no longer limit themselves to low-level solutions and ignore the potential for productivity and performance portability obtained by using locality abstractions. Fortunately, the trend emerging in recent literature on the topic alleviates many of the concerns that got in the way of their adoption by application developers. Data locality abstractions are available in the forms of libraries, data structures, languages and runtime systems; a common theme is increasing productivity without sacrificing performance. This paper examines these trends and identifies commonalities that can combine various locality concepts to develop a comprehensive approach to expressing and managing data locality on future large-scale high-performance computing systems

Comparative Genomics of the Apicomplexan Parasites Toxoplasma gondii and Neospora caninum: Coccidia Differing in Host Range and Transmission Strategy

Toxoplasma gondii is a zoonotic protozoan parasite which infects nearly one third of the human population and is found in an extraordinary range of vertebrate hosts. Its epidemiology depends heavily on horizontal transmission, especially between rodents and its definitive host, the cat. Neospora caninum is a recently discovered close relative of Toxoplasma, whose definitive host is the dog. Both species are tissue-dwelling Coccidia and members of the phylum Apicomplexa; they share many common features, but Neospora neither infects humans nor shares the same wide host range as Toxoplasma, rather it shows a striking preference for highly efficient vertical transmission in cattle. These species therefore provide a remarkable opportunity to investigate mechanisms of host restriction, transmission strategies, virulence and zoonotic potential. We sequenced the genome of N. caninum and transcriptomes of the invasive stage of both species, undertaking an extensive comparative genomics and transcriptomics analysis. We estimate that these organisms diverged from their common ancestor around 28 million years ago and find that both genomes and gene expression are remarkably conserved. However, in N. caninum we identified an unexpected expansion of surface antigen gene families and the divergence of secreted virulence factors, including rhoptry kinases. Specifically we show that the rhoptry kinase ROP18 is pseudogenised in N. caninum and that, as a possible consequence, Neospora is unable to phosphorylate host immunity-related GTPases, as Toxoplasma does. This defense strategy is thought to be key to virulence in Toxoplasma. We conclude that the ecological niches occupied by these species are influenced by a relatively small number of gene products which operate at the host-parasite interface and that the dominance of vertical transmission in N. caninum may be associated with the evolution of reduced virulence in this species

FrzS Regulates Social Motility in Myxococcus xanthus by Controlling Exopolysaccharide Production

Myxococcus xanthus Social (S) motility occurs at high cell densities and is powered by the extension and retraction of Type IV pili which bind ligands normally found in matrix exopolysaccharides (EPS). Previous studies showed that FrzS, a protein required for S-motility, is organized in polar clusters that show pole-to-pole translocation as cells reverse their direction of movement. Since the leading cell pole is the site of both the major FrzS cluster and type IV pilus extension/retraction, it was suggested that FrzS might regulate S-motility by activating pili at the leading cell pole. Here, we show that FrzS regulates EPS production, rather than type IV pilus function. We found that the frzS phenotype is distinct from that of Type IV pilus mutants such as pilA and pilT, but indistinguishable from EPS mutants, such as epsZ. Indeed, frzS mutants can be rescued by the addition of purified EPS, 1% methylcellulose, or co-culturing with wildtype cells. Our data also indicate that the cell density requirement in S-motility is likely a function of the ability of cells to construct functional multicellular clusters surrounding an EPS core

Mobile phones and head tumours. The discrepancies in cause-effect relationships in the epidemiological studies - how do they arise?

The uncertainty about the relationship between the use of mobile phones (MPs: analogue and digital cellulars, and cordless) and the increase of head tumour risk can be solved by a critical analysis of the methodological elements of both the positive and the negative studies. Results by Hardell indicate a cause/effect relationship: exposures for or latencies from 65 10 years to MPs increase by up to 100% the risk of tumour on the same side of the head preferred for phone use (ipsilateral tumours) - which is the only one significantly irradiated - with statistical significance for brain gliomas, meningiomas and acoustic neuromas. On the contrary, studies published under the Interphone project and others produced negative results and are characterised by the substantial underestimation of the risk of tumour. However, also in the Interphone studies a clear and statistically significant increase of ipsilateral head tumours (gliomas, neuromas and parotid gland tumours) is quite common in people having used MPs since or for 65 10 years. And also the metaanalyses by Hardell and other Authors, including only the literature data on ipsilateral tumours in people having used MPs since or for 65 10 years - and so also part of the Interphone data - still show statistically significant increases of head tumours

Twenty two cases of canine neural angiostronglyosis in eastern Australia (2002-2005) and a review of the literature

Cases of canine neural angiostrongylosis (NA) with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) evaluations in the peer-reviewed literature were tabulated. All cases were from Australia. A retrospective cohort of 59 dogs was contrasted with a series of 22 new cases where NA was diagnosed by the presence of both eosinophilic pleocytosis and anti-Angiostrongylus cantonensis immunloglobulins (IgG) in CSF, determined by ELISA or Western blot. Both cohorts were drawn from south east Queensland and Sydney. The retrospective cohort comprised mostly pups presented for hind limb weakness with hyperaesthesia, a mixture of upper motor neurone (UMN) and lower motor neurone (LMN) signs in the hind limbs and urinary incontinence. Signs were attributed to larval migration through peripheral nerves, nerve roots, spinal cord and brain associated with an ascending eosinophilic meningo-encephomyelitis. The contemporary cohort consisted of a mixture of pups, young adult and mature dogs, with a wider range of signs including (i) paraparesis/proprioceptive ataxia (ii) lumbar and tail base hyperaesthesia, (iii) multi-focal central nervous system dysfunction, or (iv) focal disease with neck pain, cranial neuropathy and altered mentation. Cases were seen throughout the year, most between April and July (inclusive). There was a preponderance of large breeds. Often littermates, or multiple animals from the same kennel, were affected simultaneously or sequentially. A presumptive diagnosis was based on consistent signs, proximity to rats, ingestion/chewing of slugs or snails and eosinophilic pleocytosis. NA was diagnosed by demonstrating anti-A. cantonensis IgG in CSF. Detecting anti-A. cantonensis IgG in serum was unhelpful because many normal dogs (20/21 lb dogs; 8/22 of a hospital population) had such antibodies, often at substantial titres. Most NA cases in the contemporary series (19/22) and many pups (16/38) in the retrospective cohort were managed successfully using high doses of prednisolone and opioids. Treatment often included antibiotics administered in case protozoan encephalomyelitis or translocated bacterial meningitis was present. Supportive measures included bladder care and physiotherapy. Several dogs were left with permanent neural deficits. Dogs are an important sentinel species for NA. Human cases and numerous cases in tawny frogmouths were reported from the same regions as affected dogs over the study period

Dynamic temporary blood facility location-allocation during and post-disaster periods

The key objective of this study is to develop a tool (hybridization or integration of different techniques) for locating the temporary blood banks during and post-disaster conditions that could serve the hospitals with minimum response time. We have used temporary blood centers, which must be located in such a way that it is able to serve the demand of hospitals in nearby region within a shorter duration. We are locating the temporary blood centres for which we are minimizing the maximum distance with hospitals. We have used Tabu search heuristic method to calculate the optimal number of temporary blood centres considering cost components. In addition, we employ Bayesian belief network to prioritize the factors for locating the temporary blood facilities. Workability of our model and methodology is illustrated using a case study including blood centres and hospitals surrounding Jamshedpur city. Our results shows that at-least 6 temporary blood facilities are required to satisfy the demand of blood during and post-disaster periods in Jamshedpur. The results also show that that past disaster conditions, response time and convenience for access are the most important factors for locating the temporary blood facilities during and post-disaster periods