Impact of Water Withdrawals from Groundwater and Surface Water on Continental Water Storage Variations

Humans have strongly impacted the global water cycle, not only water flows but also water storage. We have performed a first global-scale analysis of the impact of water withdrawals on water storage variations, using the global water resources and use model WaterGAP. This required estimation of fractions of total water withdrawals from groundwater, considering five water use sectors. According to our assessment, the source of 35% of the water withdrawn worldwide (4300 cubic km/yr during 1998-2002) is groundwater. Groundwater contributes 42%, 36% and 27% of water used for irrigation, households and manufacturing, respectively, while we assume that only surface water is used for livestock and for cooling of thermal power plants. Consumptive water use was 1400 cubic km/yr during 1998-2002. It is the sum of the net abstraction of 250 cubic km/yr of groundwater (taking into account evapotranspiration and return flows of withdrawn surface water and groundwater) and the net abstraction of 1150 km3/yr of surface water. Computed net abstractions indicate, for the first time at the global scale, where and when human water withdrawals decrease or increase groundwater or surface water storage. In regions with extensive surface water irrigation, such as Southern China, net abstractions from groundwater are negative, i.e. groundwater is recharged by irrigation. The opposite is true for areas dominated by groundwater irrigation, such as in the High Plains aquifer of the central USA, where net abstraction of surface water is negative because return flow of withdrawn groundwater recharges the surface water compartments. In intensively irrigated areas, the amplitude of seasonal total water storage variations is generally increased due to human water use; however, in some areas, it is decreased. For the High Plains aquifer and the whole Mississippi basin, modeled groundwater and total water storage variations were compared with estimates of groundwater storage variations based on groundwater table observations, and with estimates of total water storage variations from the GRACE satellites mission. Due to the difficulty in estimating area-averaged seasonal groundwater storage variations from point observations of groundwater levels, it is uncertain whether WaterGAP underestimates actual variations or not. We conclude that WaterGAP possibly overestimates water withdrawals in the High Plains aquifer where impact of human water use on water storage is readily discernible based on WaterGAP calculations and groundwater observations. No final conclusion can be drawn regarding the possibility of monitoring water withdrawals in the High Plains aquifer using GRACE. For the less intensively irrigated Mississippi basin, observed and modeled seasonal groundwater storage reveals a discernible impact of water withdrawals in the basin, but this is not the case for total water storage such that water withdrawals at the scale of the whole Mississippi basin cannot be monitored by GRACE

Limiting global warming to 1.5ºC will lower increases in inequalities of four hazard indicators of climate change

Clarifying characteristics of hazards and risks of climate change at 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming is important for understanding the implications of the Paris Agreement. We perform and analyze large ensembles of 2 °C and 1.5 °C warming simulations. In the 2 °C runs, we find substantial increases in extreme hot days, heavy rainfalls, high streamflow and labor capacity reduction related to heat stress. For example, about half of the world's population is projected to experience a present day 1-in-10 year hot day event every other year at 2 °C warming. The regions with relatively large increases of these four hazard indicators coincide with countries characterized by small CO2 emissions, low-income and high vulnerability. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, compared to 2 °C, is projected to lower increases in the four hazard indicators especially in those regions.ISSN:1748-9326ISSN:1748-931