Cross-comparison of MRCGP & MRCP(UK) in a database linkage study of 2,284 candidates taking both examinations: assessment of validity and differential performance by ethnicity.

MRCGP and MRCP(UK) are the main entry qualifications for UK doctors entering general [family] practice or hospital [internal] medicine. The performance of MRCP(UK) candidates who subsequently take MRCGP allows validation of each assessment. In the UK, underperformance of ethnic minority doctors taking MRCGP has had a high political profile, with a Judicial Review in the High Court in April 2014 for alleged racial discrimination. Although the legal challenge was dismissed, substantial performance differences between white and BME (Black and Minority Ethnic) doctors undoubtedly exist. Understanding ethnic differences can be helped by comparing the performance of doctors who take both MRCGP and MRCP(UK)

High Redshift Standard Candles: Predicted Cosmological Constraints

We investigate whether future measurements of high redshift standard candles (HzSCs) will be a powerful probe of dark energy, when compared to other types of planned dark energy measurements. Active galactic nuclei and gamma ray bursts have both been proposed as potential HzSC candidates. Due to their high luminosity, they can be used to probe unexplored regions in the expansion history of the universe. Information from these regions can help constrain the properties of dark energy, and in particular, whether it varies over time. We consider both linear and piecewise parameterizations of the dark energy equation of state, $w(z)$, and assess the optimal redshift distribution a high-redshift standard-candle survey could take to constrain these models. The more general the form of the dark energy equation of state $w(z)$ being tested, the more useful high-redshift standard candles become. For a linear parameterization of $w(z)$, HzSCs give only small improvements over planned supernova and baryon acoustic oscillation measurements; a wide redshift range with many low redshift points is optimal to constrain this linear model. However to constrain a general, and thus potentially more informative, form of $w(z)$, having many HzSCs can significantly improve limits on the nature of dark energy.Comment: Accepted MNRAS, 27 Pages, 15 figures, matches published versio

The Importance of Broad Emission-Line Widths in Single Epoch Black Hole Mass Estimates

Estimates of the mass of super-massive black holes (BHs) in distant active galactic nuclei (AGNs) can be obtained efficiently only through single-epoch spectra, using a combination of their broad emission-line widths and continuum luminosities. Yet the reliability and accuracy of the method, and the resulting mass estimates, M_BH, remain uncertain. A recent study by Croom using a sample of SDSS, 2QZ and 2SLAQ quasars suggests that line widths contribute little information about the BH mass in these single-epoch estimates and can be replaced by a constant value without significant loss of accuracy. In this Letter, we use a sample of nearby reverberation-mapped AGNs to show that this conclusion is not universally applicable. We use the bulge luminosity (L_Bulge) of these local objects to test how well the known M_BH - L_Bulge correlation is recovered when using randomly assigned line widths instead of the measured ones to estimate M_BH. We find that line widths provide significant information about M_BH, and that for this sample, the line width information is just as significant as that provided by the continuum luminosities. We discuss the effects of observational biases upon the analysis of Croom and suggest that the results can probably be explained as a bias of flux-limited, shallow quasar samples.Comment: 10 text pages + 4 Figures + 1 Table. Accepted for publication in ApJ Letter

Chemical abundances of damped Lyman alpha systems in the XQ-100 survey

The XQ-100 survey has provided high signal-noise spectra of 100 redshift 3-4.5 quasars with the X-Shooter spectrograph. The metal abundances for 13 elements in the 41 damped Lyman alpha systems (DLAs) identified in the XQ-100 sample are presented, and an investigation into abundances of a variety of DLA classes is conducted. The XQ-100 DLA sample contains five DLAs within 5000 km/s of their host quasar (proximate DLAs; PDLAs) as well as three sightlines which contain two DLAs within 10,000 km/s of each other along the same line-of-sight (multiple DLAs; MDLAs). Combined with previous observations in the literature, we demonstrate that PDLAs with logN(HI)<21.0 show lower [S/H] and [Fe/H] (relative to intervening systems with similar redshift and N(HI)), whilst higher [S/H] and [Si/H] are seen in PDLAs with logN(HI)>21.0. These abundance discrepancies are independent of their line-of-sight velocity separation from the host quasar, and the velocity width of the metal lines (v90). Contrary to previous studies, MDLAs show no difference in [alpha/Fe] relative to single DLAs matched in metallicity and redshift. In addition, we present follow-up UVES data of J0034+1639, a sightline containing three DLAs, including a metal-poor DLA with [Fe/H]=-2.82 (the third lowest [Fe/H] in DLAs identified to date) at z=4.25. Lastly we study the dust-corrected [Zn/Fe], emphasizing that near-IR coverage of X-Shooter provides unprecedented access to MgII, CaII and TiII lines (at redshifts 3-4) to provide additional evidence for subsolar [Zn/Fe] ratio in DLAs.Comment: Accepted to MNRAS. 19 pages plus Appendix material (102 pages total

Associations between rapid weight gain in infancy and weight status among urban Aboriginal children participating in the Gudaga study: nine-year results from a cohort study.

BACKGROUND:Rapid weight gain (RWG) in infants is associated with overweight and obesity in childhood and beyond, highlighting the need for early intervention. METHODS:Data from a birth cohort of Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children living in an urban area were analysed to determine the prevalence of RWG in infancy and the association between RWG and overweight and obesity, categorised using both body mass index and waist to height ratio from birth to 9 years. RESULTS:The prevalence of overweight and obesity is higher in this cohort (at 47%) than the population average. The Australian population as a whole has seen steady increases. In this cohort although the prevalence of combined overweight and obesity remained relatively stable between 2 and 9 years, the proportion of children categorized as obese using BMI has increased. 42% of children who were overweight or obese at 9 years had experienced RWG in infancy. Children were 2.7 and 3.9 times more likely to be overweight at 9 years if they experienced RWG or were overweight at 2 years, respectively. CONCLUSION:RWG was common in this cohort and the strongest predictor of excess weight at 2 years and at 9 years. Early intervention is crucial in the first year of life across the whole population to prevent obesity in children. Culturally appropriate interventions developed with the community are required for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander babies and their parents

The Size of the Narrow-Line Emitting Region in the Seyfert 1 Galaxy NGC 5548 from Emission-Line Variability

The narrow [O III] 4959, 5007 emission-line fluxes in the spectrum of the well-studied Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 5548 are shown to vary with time. From this we show that the narrow line-emitting region has a radius of only 1-3 pc and is denser (n ~ 10^5 cm^{-3}) than previously supposed. The [O III] line width is consistent with virial motions at this radius given previous determinations of the black hole mass.Since the [O III] emission-line flux is usually assumed to be constant and is therefore used to calibrate spectroscopic monitoring data, the variability has ramifications for the long-term secular variations of continuum and emission-line fluxes, though it has no effect on shorter-term reverberation studies. We present corrected optical continuum and broad Hbeta emission-line light curves for the period 1988 to 2008.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, 6 tables. Accepted for publication in Ap

Assessing User Engagement of an mHealth Intervention: Development and Implementation of the Growing Healthy App Engagement Index.

BACKGROUND: Childhood obesity is an ongoing problem in developed countries that needs targeted prevention in the youngest age groups. Children in socioeconomically disadvantaged families are most at risk. Mobile health (mHealth) interventions offer a potential route to target these families because of its relatively low cost and high reach. The Growing healthy program was developed to provide evidence-based information on infant feeding from birth to 9 months via app or website. Understanding user engagement with these media is vital to developing successful interventions. Engagement is a complex, multifactorial concept that needs to move beyond simple metrics. OBJECTIVE: The aim of our study was to describe the development of an engagement index (EI) to monitor participant interaction with the Growing healthy app. The index included a number of subindices and cut-points to categorize engagement. METHODS: The Growing program was a feasibility study in which 300 mother-infant dyads were provided with an app which included 3 push notifications that was sent each week. Growing healthy participants completed surveys at 3 time points: baseline (T1) (infant age ≤3 months), infant aged 6 months (T2), and infant aged 9 months (T3). In addition, app usage data were captured from the app. The EI was adapted from the Web Analytics Demystified visitor EI. Our EI included 5 subindices: (1) click depth, (2) loyalty, (3) interaction, (4) recency, and (5) feedback. The overall EI summarized the subindices from date of registration through to 39 weeks (9 months) from the infant's date of birth. Basic descriptive data analysis was performed on the metrics and components of the EI as well as the final EI score. Group comparisons used t tests, analysis of variance (ANOVA), Mann-Whitney, Kruskal-Wallis, and Spearman correlation tests as appropriate. Consideration of independent variables associated with the EI score were modeled using linear regression models. RESULTS: The overall EI mean score was 30.0% (SD 11.5%) with a range of 1.8% - 57.6%. The cut-points used for high engagement were scores greater than 37.1% and for poor engagement were scores less than 21.1%. Significant explanatory variables of the EI score included: parity (P=.005), system type including "app only" users or "both" app and email users (P<.001), recruitment method (P=.02), and baby age at recruitment (P=.005). CONCLUSIONS: The EI provided a comprehensive understanding of participant behavior with the app over the 9-month period of the Growing healthy program. The use of the EI in this study demonstrates that rich and useful data can be collected and used to inform assessments of the strengths and weaknesses of the app and in turn inform future interventions

Simulations of the OzDES AGN Reverberation Mapping Project

As part of the OzDES spectroscopic survey we are carrying out a large scale reverberation mapping study of $\sim$500 quasars over five years in the 30 deg$^2$ area of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) supernova fields. These quasars have redshifts ranging up to 4 and have apparent AB magnitudes between $16.8<r<22.5$ mag. The aim of the survey is to measure time lags between fluctuations in the quasar continuum and broad emission line fluxes of individual objects in order to measure black hole masses for a broad range of AGN and constrain the radius-luminosity ($R-L$) relationship. Here we investigate the expected efficiency of the OzDES reverberation mapping campaign and its possible extensions. We expect to recover lags for $\sim$35-45\% of the quasars. AGN with shorter lags and greater variability are more likely to yield a lag, and objects with lags $\lesssim$6 months or $\sim$1 year are expected be recovered the most accurately. The baseline OzDES reverberation mapping campaign is predicted to produce an unbiased measurement of the $R-L$ relationship parameters for H$\beta$, Mg II $\lambda$2798, and C IV $\lambda$1549. However, extending the baseline survey by either increasing the spectroscopic cadence, extending the survey season, or improving the emission line flux measurement accuracy will significantly improve the $R-L$ parameter constraints for all broad emission lines.Comment: Published online in MNRAS. 28 page

The Whisper in the Ear: Re-defector Press Conference as Information Management Tool

Although coercion is a key element in the governing strategy of the North Korean party-state, the authorities in Pyongyang do not hold political power at the barrel of a gun alone. Control and manipulation of information are equally important tools. This paper uses the case of “re-defector” press conferences convened in Pyongyang between 2011 and 2013 to illustrate how the party-state employs an active information management strategy to buttress its rule. Building upon the contemporary “politics of authoritarianism” literature and the concept of governmentality, this paper utilizes Thomas Callaghy’s “domain consensus” as a framework to codify the reciprocal communicative process by which the party-state interacts with the citizenry. The domain consensus framework subdivides authoritarian control into a trifurcated framework of ideal types: coercive, utilitarian, and normative. This working paper focuses on the third of these – the normative. As such, this paper explores the information management strategy used to promote a consensus on expectations of life inside and outside North Korea. Using brand new structured interview findings, this paper also provides a bottomup perspective that shows how the information propagated by the government of Kim Jong-un is manipulated, rejected, or reproduced by ordinary people.Asian Studie